Gregmal
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Posts posted by Gregmal
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6 minutes ago, Dinar said:
Greg, what are you referring to when you are talking about Fanatics? Thank you.
White whale of mine.
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More FRPH and finally got a lead on Fanatics shares.
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Yea I’ve always laughed at this aspect. I’m a buyer…I’m not a retard. I have a lawyer. I’ve always wondered why my agent would get 2-3% because the lawyer I’m paying $1200 for the transaction does significantly more work.
In my life buying properties, I’ve never had a scenario where an agent earned even a fraction of the commission in relation to helping me find the property. And only on one of the transactions would I say it’s been deserved for other reasons….mainly providing info and support in and area I’m new to….so generally speaking….can’t help but think the buy side agent ends up offering shit like $499 representation deals and whatnot. Even that…it’s like ok we spent 20 minutes seeing the property and you texted my offer over…not bad pay for the work.
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No real model. But generally speaking, what are the odds I make money, in absolute terms. I honestly have never cared or played the “will this outperform t-bills/S&P/whatever” game…that’s stupid. If I see an investment, EBay for instance…I can say that at $42 a share there’s virtually no way I lose money on it with a 3-5 year timeline. If risk is low, reward does not need to be super high…but the real gems are where you can find something with super low risks and some upside call options. Nintendo at $10, same thing.
So I guess really, for the super majority of my portfolio, I look for things where at worst my money isn’t going anywhere and at best I can make a lot. Over time I’ve moved away from stuff like biotech or cigar butts where I might make a lot but I also might lose a lot.
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The problem with the obviously great ones is people always complain that they are expensive. Otherwise, what’s not to like?
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4 minutes ago, vinod1 said:
I remember "law of large numbers" being thrown about when Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google were all in the $100 billion range. The reasoning was, trees dont grow to the sky; companies cannot possible be worth $500 billion which would be insane; competition would increase once companies get to $100 billion market cap; etc.
Here we are.
Totally. I remember making a rather irresponsible earnings wager on Apple in maybe 2012 or so and being told "thats silly, its $400B company...how much bigger can it get?"...these things are silly talking points.
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But also, imagine not even buying the rock…but sitting around obsessing over the rock….whining about how only 7 particles of the rock are the only reason anyone wants the rock, wallowing about how rocks will go out of style, and then spending even more time wondering if you should short rocks, and getting mega excited every 5% pullback thinking this is the beginning of the end of rocks? Meanwhile somewhere else there’s trees paying you $12 instead of $3.56, and ponds with fish that produce $15? Pretty stupid to be focused on the rocks, eh?
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It’s amazing all over the absolute obsession every outlet and market participant has with talking about “the magnificent 7”…like all consuming obsession. Recently I’ve even seen articles about “Mag 7 underperformed the market since mid January”…and it’s just like wtf is wrong with people? Takes Bruce Berkowitzs “ignore the crowds” slogan to another level…like any guesses how many of the people consumed with Mag 7 analysis(you know, as if they all have some proprietary edge over everyone else and their mother who’s staring at the same 7 stocks….” Are actually outperforming or even sniffing acceptable levels of portfolio performance? A good many Id gander probably don’t even have proper market exposure….
This is where we eventually mature and see how investing is easy if you just do your own thing and stop looking at and for the same exact shit everyone else looks at and for…
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9 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:
lol going after EQC. Telling them to liquidate.
Yea, goes after a low beta snoozeCo and then starts doing his "look at me" marketing antics. Thats the formula.
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Can we create a news network that is not dishonest and actually labels its guests and fodder characters appropriately? Rather than “the guy who called XYZ crash”…wouldn’t “the guy who’s made 643 predictions with a 4% hit rate” be more appropriate? How about? “the guy who’s lost 30% over the past decade while underperforming the index by 300%”…instead of “famed short seller” can we get a more honest “guy who cries wolf a lot and if enough people are dumb enough to fall for it, buys the stuff he says he’s shorting”?
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2 minutes ago, Spooky said:
Grantham back at it again: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-great-paradox-of-the-u.s.-market_viewpoints
At this point the guys best and highest use would be running charity auctions for the right to be punched in the face by current and former clients whom he's cheated with his antics.
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I still occasionally dream of someone hacking the CPI and releasing a 15 print or something crazy just so we can see these mindless monkey boys who “brace” for these sorts releases have seizures.
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As an American I’ve been disgusted by all the warmongering that’s been brought about by the current regime…but it gets to another level when the SOTU headlines are that we’re “determined to avoid sending troops to Ukraine”….huh???? Who TF was ever even talking about sending US troops? It’s bad enough we re wasting billions so a dementia ridden puppet can play stratego….now we need to kill our own over some foreign pissing match? Fuck these people.
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More egg on the faces of Jerryband Friends with NYCB. This is pure awesome…force the asset sale, give the ok to the buyer(nycb), then basically pull the rug on them with the “regulatory” angle, effectively causing the typical dominos to fall(media/social media/short sellers screaming hoping to cause a run on the bank), then….blame it on bad management lol. Fuck these people, such idiots all around.
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Sold the last of my SPHR.
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When fast food gets that expensive, a rationale person owes it to themselves to go get their food at a better joint....I can get a 4 pack of the finest burgers for $10 at the store. Or I can go to the highest of caliber local steakhouses and get a burger meal for $16-25. Fast food is really just a lazy choice. Further, pretty sure Wendys still has $5-6 combo deals. People make choices and then blame inflation. Its easier that way. There is NO reason, longer term, McDonald's should be able to charge $15 for a Big Mac meal if people behaved rationally.
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Lower income folks don’t see wage growth because they have no bargaining power being at the bottom of the food chain. That’s life.
There’s a reason good marine mechanics in cold states all head south once they’re able to. Theres a reason all good cooks go to big cities when they can. If you bag groceries or mop floors, tough luck.
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2 hours ago, mattee2264 said:
When inflation was in the double digits everyone was dumping bitcoin.
So Bitcoin is obviously proven to be a bad inflation hedge….
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Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this?
Answer? None.
If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything.
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6 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:
Care to expand on that? Agree on Litt prefer cash to noise.
REITS are awful when it comes to incorporation/shareholder rights being in Maryland(go figure) and when things get hostile management can fuck everyone badly.
Litt is skeezy but his play is great marketing. Monish would be proud. Basically take an immaterial position in a low vol or super cheap liquid company and then go on a publicity tour with mega saber rattling while ultimately settling for minor governance changes which allow him to say "see! look at how good I am"....
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Total waste of time if youre doing it for economic reasons. Great marketing though if you use the Jon Litt strategy.
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The stock should be trading at ~$1300 USD with that figure increasing about $150 per share per year. Until it’s there, who cares about the short term minutiae?
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That won’t happen. It’s clear even now during his presidency that biden makes zero actual decisions. He isn’t even allowed to do interviews. He s a figurehead.
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Lol I remember being told we were all idiots for not having massive Tesla and Moderna positions in November 2021…then having our friend totally disappear and return a couple years later accusing me of being long SF real estate….and claiming he was retired and in bonds. Only to then switch bonds to cash when he was told bonds did poorly. And now he’s long Uber and Chinese tech stocks….
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Yup. Small fund being put together so a few employees can pay taxes.