Gregmal
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Posts posted by Gregmal
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When we have war, markets go down and treasuries get bid up. That’s exactly what happened Friday…yet the monkeys at cnbc who are obsessed with pushing the inflation narrative claimed markets sold off on “inflation fears”…ugh rates don’t tank on inflation fears
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6 minutes ago, Sweet said:
The last thing Biden wants is another war.
All we have gotten from this administration is wars and conflict. I said in October, these events and the blood of those people is on the hands on the people who enabled this because “orange man bad”…
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Yea I remember people selling their stocks in February 2022 and telling us how big a deal Russia/Ukraine was was well. This was widely expected Friday during trading so again is probably just the drama queens and noise boys gambling on….idk what.
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17 minutes ago, Eldad said:
Yeah. Unknowable and not really worth the time.
Get good at microeconomics and leave macro alone. Paraphrasing Charlie M.
Stocks probably do better in most every environment. Buy some good ones and hold them a long time.
I mean it really just comes down to one’s ability to understand what they invest in. If the worst case is that you can buy more of things you like for the mid-longer term…then what’s there to be afraid of? People act like drawdowns and volatility are something to be feared, but I’ve always found them fun.
If you’re under 50 and your livelihood is not going to be impaired by stock market volatility then just pig out when all these short term trading clowns freak out. You want to be ACCUMULATING durable and desirable asset for as much of your useful life as possible. I don’t consider cash to be one of those. Much rather own great businesses and real estate.
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IDK. In Q4 2021 I was told real estate was gonna crash when they raised rates. I bought a townhouse on the lake instead(in a blue state at that!). Today my neighbor, identical unit, closed on the sale of their unit at 37% premium. I haven't calculated what t-bills woulda done for me. No substitute for just using common sense. Real assets will do well in the current and future environment, regardless of what the little monkey boys bidding up and down stocks assure us.
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Yawn. Inflation will be 2.5-4.5%...rates will be 3-5%....get on with life. It seems both up and down everyone needs to extrapolate rather meaningless and arbitrary fluctuations and trends. 15 months of declines and its "wait and see" and 3 months of meh and "its ramping back up"...consistent much? Shelter still at 8 and thats...drumroll....because of higher rates. Insurance is a rate derivative as well. And energy has nothing to do with anything rate wise. Still basically where we've been all along. A big nothing burger with an overzealous audience.
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7 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:
Thought u bailed on that one due to poor management?
Nah, just not much going on in between their phase development but things are picking up quickly there. Not thrilled with the capital allocation and might have a chat with Mark soon, but its more sins of omission, not commission.
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Slug of PCYO.
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48 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
Lmao this dude is a clown. Imagine shorting Microsoft or Amazon because its 18% overvalued based on what you think fair value should be. If I was an investor in his fund I'd be pulling capital right now because he obviously doesn't know how to manage money. Probably has a burner on r/WSB
Nah, its actually a very low risk scam-like operation. I'd be shocked if he is still materially short Fairfax. He closes substantial portions of his "shorts" within days of first going public as thats when you get maximum movement. Why wait for fundamentals to prove you right or (likely) wrong?
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4 minutes ago, Malmqky said:
Couldn’t agree more. Well said. Could never pray on someone/somethings downfall like this.
It’s telling the short report doesn’t actually go into real analysis on the “14 positions”. Just gives basically a one liner stating something like “this is on the balance sheet as x, it’s actually y”.
If MW was legit, they’d break things down way more and invite scrutiny to their methodology/analysis.
Instead, MW is just marketing ran by pseudo-intellectuals who want to make money by being “smart” instead of just taking swings at far pitches.
Also, why would you short a company that’s “overvalued by 18%”. Like 18%? Lol. Huge upside there!
Legit short sellers keep their positions quiet and generally abhor the idea of their positions leaking as if youre actually investing it makes many of the short specific nuances much more challenging. Its only the smash and grabbers who only look to keep the position on in a very short term way who take the scream from the mountain tops hoping to scare people and move the market approach.
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Ive said it a million times but I dont know how anyone has ANY respect for short sellers, especially the ones that publicly pull this shit just trying to cause short term moves in stock prices. What kind of scum seeks to profit off misfortune of others? Especially so gloatingly and publicly? Like you realize tons of people invest in and/or work at these companies, have stock options, retirement plans, etc? The way they excuse this is always by trying to paint the NEOs in some nefarious way, or act like the company is evil...and hey, sometimes thats true, but often it is just fabricated, and either way...why not just let things play out without having to try to be the reason for damaging a company in a negative way?
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12 minutes ago, Luca said:
Dont worry, rather than acknowledge and address the issue, people will just make derogatory comments about Musk and Bezos being China apologists!
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Move along…he’s a scumbag who uses the media to manipulate and move his positions. Nothing more.
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Hmmm, so all those governance issues at Aimco? Think this bodes very well for AIV.
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Lol but they’re insolvent because dumbasses bought private reit shares at stupid prices and are now mad they can’t sell them like free trading stock!
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I’ve never seen a war or pseudo war that wasn’t taken advantage of by government or used to gain political standing at the expense of the average citizen. I was close enough to the direct effects and visuals of 9-11 to see the impacts of these pissing matches. Of course 9-11 wasn’t just “oh well gee these terrorists showed up out of nowhere and did this for no reason”…the reasons(one’s in which both us and the terrorists wholly believed to be on the “right side” of) ultimately stemmed from actions we took for years and even decades prior. You then look at what transpired over the next 2 decades! We re seeing it in Gaza right now. October 7 wasn’t the “starting point”…but now it’s like ok where does this end?
This Russia Ukraine thing started years before the actual “invasion”. Of course, we were at the center of the provocation. You see the complete one sided nature of the reporting. Zelenskyy has turned into a rabid little dictator(assuming he wasn’t already one) and at the end of the day it’s the people of Russia and the people of Ukraine whom are getting fucked. They could have a settlement in a week if they wanted one, but that’s not being allowed to happen. Heck, look at what you see, and then imagine what you don’t see, in terms of the political strategy around OUR politicians when it comes to pushing for Ukraine and Israel aid!! There’s nothing humanitarian about it. Just “what benefits me” from government officials at the higher levels.
So yea idk I differ from a lot of people I know on the subject but I really just dont support war and don’t support enabling one, let alone constantly being the ones who provoke, encourage and fund them. Our country certain does that.
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1 hour ago, Sweet said:
Do you not think there is a good vs bad in the Russia ukraine war?Wars are complicated and we have this tabloid tendency through the propaganda arms to create this soccer match style “who do you want to see win” backdrop to them in order to simplify these things and get people to fall in line.
Generally I’d prefer no wars. And I also prefer the US stop meddling in all these places and instigating more war. See what’s currently happening in Taiwan.
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14 hours ago, formthirteen said:
On the other side of the same coin, would love to see the headline “Xi raises concerns to Biden over continued support of Ukraine”….more us good, them bad, yay tribalism.
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I saw this, and just thought....how disingenuous?
Aint this dude been long and loud gold since basically the GFC?
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13 minutes ago, blakehampton said:
My idea of the two options at the FED:
- Shrink the balance sheet and cripple markets
- Or don't and we see runaway inflation
Please correct me if I'm wrong
19 minutes ago, blakehampton said:Isn't QE simply an asset swap of long-term bonds for cash, with QT being the reverse? The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shrunk by around $1.2 trillion in assets since last year and is continuing, and I don't see how this doesn't affect asset prices. The system is currently tightening and we'll almost certainly see higher long-term rates in the near future. It's interesting to me because when I talk to anyone about the value behind both stocks and real estate, it seems they believe that prices just have to continuously go up. Looking at past data, this seems somewhat more true for real estate but certainly not equities.
The biggest mistake Ive seen made over the last few years is that people really want to believe, and go to great lengths to convince themselves, that the market is as simple as "the Fed controls whether stocks go up or down"...I just dont know why this is the case or even would be. At this point pretty much everyone Im aware of has had fair notice as far how to position.
In addition, to the last bolded part, why isnt this generally and loosely true, from a historical standpoint? Stocks are at an ATH, or pretty close to it. They are also a VOLATILE asset class. Is this statement untrue because "sometimes they go down"?
Like Ive seen so many times talk of "in 2018 the market went down" and its like yea, stocks can do that sometimes, and fast forward 6 years and anyone who bought stocks from those panicking dopes in November and December 2018 has made a fortune...whats the point?
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Anyway, back to the topic of 3%, largely high rate propelled inflation...and the topic of equities "not pricing it in", weren't the same exact things said about 4-5% rates? And outside of a couple short lived, headline fueled panic corrections....We're not at SPY 3000 or 4000 or even 5000? And sure we can argue about "absolute" all time highs after taking a hatchet to things in the adjustment category....but still, cant we all admit that we are still MILES away from where the persistent parade of "market isnt pricing things in" predictions have forecast we'd be? Nothing gives away a flawed argument more than extended periods of time going by where.... it simply doesnt occur.
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8 minutes ago, RedLion said:
You should come check out California. I feel like the immigrants are the only ones working. Often under the table for cash. Mostly these are Central American immigrants.
Yup. At least from the people I know and speak with, the Central Americans are unmatched as far as work ethic go. Especially the ones from socialist regimes.
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@Dinar you left out free prepaid debit cards!
All in all I do agree though that literally once you get out of the lawless cesspools like NYC, these people generally contribute positively. One of the cool aspects of our annual winter break down the east coast is seeing a lot of cool places. We drive cuz its easier with the kids...do a few nights wherever, say Richmond, Hilton Head, Savannah, Raleigh, Knoxville....before going through Florida, which in and of itself is big and diverse. So much of the cool and happening places are an amalgamation of "people" coming together to make it work. Thats almost universal. Where things are gross? This shithubs like NYC, Baltimore/DC, etc....AND....cranky old rural white people areas where they think everyone is coming to take their....IDK what lol.
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Did what I do when I ain’t got shit else to do…bought more FRPH
Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict
in General Discussion
Posted
Lol +5