Gregmal

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30308543/golden-state-warriors-submit-plan-home-game-testing-allow-50-percent-fan-capacity Pretty interesting. Lets see if the bureaucrats listen to the "science" or continue to find excuses for their power grab. Joe Lacob is infinitely more credible and qualified than any of them, and probably even moreso than the purely academic scientists like Fauci, who have never been forced to make a living in the real world.

And before the whole "hospital capacity" thing comes up, China built a mega hospital in 8 days. The fools and politicians have had 6 months to make plans and prepare....but now they want their ineptitude to be everyone else's problem.

All I can say is that I hope people take measures to let politicians know how they feel. Folks have demonstrated that they are fine living with the virus. We dont need government and MSM drumming up stories and sensationalizing this thing for the sake of power grabs. I certainly hope that people hold these politicians accountable. It is nice when there are consequences. Cuomo for instance has spent months blaming Trump. When Trump is gone, what is he to do? Face the people hopefully.

Media is ecstatic. Corey Lewandowski will be dead in T+3 days....

Just in at Costco...

I get the allure to this and do agree, even as someone who hates gold and the arrogance of your typical gold bug...my question would be...does anyone have any really exotic trade or way to express something like this. I really dont want to waste a whole lot of capital on these things because I'd rather just play it safe and buy things that can do well under this scenario as well as a few others...but if the trade really takes off it would be nice to have a few lottery tickets. Any ideas? I personally think theres probably a few similar metals or commodities you could apply the same thesis to, while also maintaining a few more ways to win...but maybe I am missing something. Is there a specific reason for gold?

I am a little dense, please explain Greg? See you on the GRIF in half an hour? With many money managers, if they find a real cant miss trade they tend to be hush hush about it, exactly as Bill was the first time. Then there's the other type of trades where guys tend to make a lot of noise, hoping to perhaps create a bit of their own alpha. See you on GRIF!

There's a third option, which I think may be more likely....some of these folks, are real weirdos.

Ive been adding a few VIX calls the past few days, but expect it to be money written off. The biggest difference to me, is that last time Ackman kept his mouth shut. This time he's being promotional about it. If think we can infer what he's trying to do.

I wonder if Fauci and the CDC will recommend people hold Thanksgiving and eat with their masks on? This will help with the pandemic. If masks prevents virus transmission they should also certainly prevent turkey legs and pumpkin pie from getting through, which will help in the fight against obesity and diabetes and solve covid since for everyone currently in reasonable health this is basically a non issue.

Yea...I'm looking forward to the peaceful transition of power from growth stocks to value stocks.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3633845-stanley-druckenmiller-buys-bitcoin

I think he meant he sold those, and that if history is a guide, his sell decisions are typically buy signals. At least thats now I interpreted it.

There s a good saying, "if it drives, flies, floats, or fucks, rent it"... That said, I totally agree with rkbabang as a boat owner. Expensive, but totally worth it.

I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way. There's definitely cheap financials and energy names out there, but I'd rather be a greedy pig in RE.

Real Estate and entertainment is basically in the clear now. I couldn't understand the appeal of financials/energy(outside of being cheap) vs the aforementioned for the simple reason that once covid went away, so did all their problems, now, just one less. Energy and financials have been lousy investments for the past half decade for good reason. They have tons of problems. With real estate, avoid B/C or worse quality retail and otherwise from here, even after todays rally, IMO, theres still massive rerating going to occur. Its one of the rare instances Ive seen in a while where there is more upside in the safer asset. People will be back in the offices in a couples quarters, retail will then firm up(even ignoring high quality retail assets already trading at sub 5 caps) and the spread to treasuries will be too big to ignore. I actually added a bit more JBGS and ESRT at the open.

Bought some SE. Hat tip to valueinvestor. You've definitely got a very unique approach and respectable track record with these sort of names.

Let's focus on making money here Greg. There are still lots of undervalued names. Just look at the whole Office REIT and Multi-Fam REIT thread Personally, I'd like to have a lot of those and some of the MSG E/S's right now...shucks. Too much time in politics and covid thread...maybe we get another shot when the mink virus gets here...one can hope.

I guess this kind of pisses all over Joe's big Covid Task Force agenda......was supposed to be a very big deal for him today.

2020 was basically like being in one of those game show cash grab machines....or my bachelor party at the Montreal strip club....so much money flying around everywhere. Lotta fun.

I think thats all useful, and in respect to the market, think this time is very different from March 2020 due to greater certainly all around. Stimulus and low rates will be there. Shutdowns will be area specific, however companies can also choose to close shop for a bit. But in March people had no clue about a vaccine and were woefully ill informed about what the true fatality rate was. Now? Even if you effectively shut everything down for a month or two, the hit that brings to certain spaces will be there, but it gets you through the season, its effectively a one off. A vaccines should be here in a few months. Even draconian Fauci has stated your "return to normal" could be "as late as" late 2020 or early 2021. In the scheme of an earning multiple or valuation, a couple quarters is insignificant. The data points of relevance that make it a little messy of course, is that valuations are pretty rich right now. But overall this time is totally different all around than March/April. That was a once in a generation opportunity.

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person? Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one? I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored... People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane. Errrr.... remind me who it is that's mentally impairing themself? For one, the people who are afraid to do anything.The ones ascribing superpowers and human traits to "the virus". The ones living in fear...

Yup, AZO, NVR, and DDS are terrific examples of the power of the repurchase. I am sure Buffett is aware of what can be done with buybacks. And I agree with the point that he had greedily been hoarding cash for his own reasons, but he's also seemingly had a fairly large change of heart over the past couple quarters and on a relative basis there really isn't "that" much of a valuation difference in the shares with respect to its range over the past 4-6 quarters. Even at its cheapest prices, he wasn't really going insane. People thought Q4/Q1 activity was a big deal. Annualizing this Q puts the pace at about 7% s/o per year. That's nothing to sneeze at regardless of who you are, but quite incredible with respect to what the previous expectations were. Typically, when you see this sort of trend, it continues in a big way. Again, look at how AAPL really accelerated with this once they saw it paying off.

Do you know why killing someone who is attacking you is more justified than killing an innocent person? Do you know why its more dangerous to drive over the speed limit without wearing a seatbelt than with one? I do, but I dont see the ties any of that has to the logical inconsistency in the above mentioned behaviors. For instance just yesterday, Chuck Schumer was partying in the streets maskless. And it was celebrated by everyone and the part where he was massless largely ignored... People have just kind of lost it with this and the media is a big part of the problem. Even the other day, my wife says to me, "did you notice the kids had runny noses all week?" and I was like yea. And she says "now my nose is runny, do you think we should be concerned?", I said, well how do you feel? To which she replies "fine". And I explain to her politely but in my head am thinking...."WTF. Every year maybe 2-3 times a fall/winter(at least since having kids) stuff like this goes around. Seasonal allergies/common cold/flu, etc....normal part of life. Now, the exact same things happen and we're all ridden with paranoia. On top of this, if these are your symptoms, and it turns out to be covid...who cares? You feel fine or at least consistent with how you normally do during this stretch of the seasons, you might have minor discomfort....otherwise, WTF is the point of all this negative energy, restriction, and paranoia....and if anything more serious comes about, well you deal with it accordingly. But the degree to which people are mentally impairing themselves over this is downright insane.

I'm still trying to figure out why fans rushing the field sets them aghast, but protesting in the streets is ok. How fans in the stadium is a no-no, but we can use the arenas for voting stations. How a campaign rally is a super spreader event, but in NY/Philly/DC, etc congregating and holding dance parties to celebrate their candidate winning the election is celebrated by the media.....There was also Justin Turner....the "covid stricken player" who celebrated with his team. "covid stricken" of course used to describe "absolutely symptom free, I feel great"....Strange times we live in.