Gregmal

If the "pandemic" has taught us anything it is that the bureaucrats dont know what they are doing, ever, and the scientists need to stay in the labs and stick to research; nothing more. Letting these people make decisions and policy has been a disaster. Almost every position they've taken, they've at some point also taken the exact opposite position. Wear masks, dont wear masks. Stay home! Actually most covid transmissions occur at home! Remdesivir works. Oh actually it doesnt. Hospitals putting people on ventilators....oops, ventilators make it worse! The scientists and medical professionals have certainly come out of this thing looking quite poor. And then they wonder why people dont "listen to the science"... My wife had to got to the hospital for a standard procedure a couple weeks ago....they make this whole big to-do about temperature checks and processing everything and make us wait several hours to do basic check in stuff and get her one of the rapid tests. I ended up just asking, "you've spent 2+ hours dicking around and making us wait...what if she tests positive for covid? Do you not take her or something". And I was floored by the response. "Oh no, then we just take extra precautions but proceed as normal"...What!?! LOL Why TF wouldn't you just take these precautions, with everyone who comes in, to begin with? My wife's family, almost all of the women are nurses. And the stories about the hospitals, big ones at that, running around clueless or winging it, making mistakes all over the place, etc....its insane. I've long maintained that the only way I'll ever know if I've had covid is if I end up in the ICU or dead. Because barring being in that type of condition, I'd imagine I'd just suck it up like I would with any other cold or flu...and get on with my life. No need to take chances or incorporate these people into the equation unless absolutely desperate and necessary.

No problem lol. PCYO and several other smaller semi liquid names Ive noticed have unusual selling activity. Ive put some sucker bids in. SWKH especially as that one can get fat fingered pretty easily and I'd love to make a quick 10-20% just playing market maker on a holiday shortened trading day.

Sold the last few of my PSTH warrants. Also trimmed some CRSP.

https://spacinsider.com The above is a great resource for anyone interested in these. Spacs are literally the playground where the sophisticated investor can rape, pillage and plunder the Robinhooder, while the Robinhooder to date, still seems to also do pretty well. No guarantees how this ends of course!

Little do most people know, but historically, the biggest holders of spacs are some of the most conservative institutions/hedge funds. Of course typically they were in it for the 3-5% over max 18-24 months that was common pre-mania. Upon decoupling they would offload the warrants to get their ~2-5% return and then wait out the common for either a deal pop or redemption where you'd get the $10 plus (time*prevailing interest rate).

Happy Thanksgiving all. Who knows what things will be like in the future, so dont take for granted what you have now.

No because you have the option to redeem your shares for $10. From deal announcement, until deal close, thats part of the sponsor headache. Most who dont like it, cash out in the open market if the units are over $10, which they almost always are; lately, very much so. But even if the shares are sub $10, you have until deal close and can redeem them to the company for $10. Effectively, in a typical WS kind of way, to close the deal, everyone who owns the shares needs to be in favor of the transaction, rather than the typical 50% or whatever with most corporate actions. If the transaction gets nixed, between the IPO cash kept in trust, and the sponsor gap fill, all the units are is a shell company with $10 per share in it.

So from my understanding, the idea is to buy around $10 (the floor), and sell in-between the announcement and closing date, correct? Seems too be good to be true, what am I missing? The win rate must be very low, no? Yea, theres two ways to do it. The first is the least risky. Buy the pre announcement spac. You can get them very close to $10 buying right after they IPO. Your max duration is typically 18-24 months. There is an interesting dynamic to the warrants as contrary to conventional wisdom, they actually gain value as time goes by as people anticipate a deal announcement. So, just using an example, something like SPNVU, you can buy now for say 10.15. After its 50th day public or whatever, it can decouple. Which allows the speculators to buy the warrants. So between that and deal anticipation, you're going to see a bit of a lift to the units. With this type of situation I like to park short term cash here that I eventually plan to use for other things. You can pretty reliably trade these, all day long and clip .5-1% just on fluctuations, which beats the shit out of your cash. SPNVU you can buy at 10.15 and either add below there or peel off over 10.2 and just rinse and repeat. Max downside in absolute terms is $10 but realistically probably more like 0 given much of the above and other factors. The second way, is to jump on a deal announcement or stalk existing deals. SBE for instance on first announcement traded 12/13. SPAQ fluctuated like heck and has been a trading bonanza. PIC you just had to follow and recently hugged $10 for a good while despite IMO being one of the more exciting and reasonably(within context) valued deals. I dont want to give away to much of the recipe but another very reliable trade is buying a small amount right at the close and then flipping it for a .5-1% premium after hours as the minions of Sherwood Forest reliably bid these up A/H. Main thing is to just have a plan. But yea, it is kinda too good to be true. Ive rarely seen risk/reward setups like this.

Yup. Had a decent little surprise the other day with INAQU. Only had a few thousand shares but still just highlights the power of the market. Had an investor, guys the biggest vagina in the world and up until US went 0 on rates in March, insisted on buying CDs with 90% of his wealth. Yes even at .75% for 24 months. He finally took my advice and we get a fair share of SPAC IPO, especially from certain syndicates. He put in for $50k on INAQU and got allocated for only 500 shares. This was September I believe. Sold yesterday for $12. He made more money in 2 months on a risk free $5,000 investment than he would have in 2 years on $200k....Today we took down some of the FRXU IPO. Also buying in open market LSAQ and SPNVU. These are beautiful.

If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end. Lucky again! GEOS booted from the Smallcap 600. Another opportunity to print some money perhaps. Would certainly buy this back in the low 6s. These schmucks actually approved a buyback a couple weeks ago.

Unfortunately, in our states, you cant present a firearm to an uninvited guest even if its on your own property. But I do have a Tibetan Mastiff and would be happy so see one of these unwanted "inspectors" meet him. Would be especially entertaining for everyone during Thanksgiving festivities. Mind your own damn business and you'll be safe.

Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep.

Sold the FSR warrants I bought today at the close. Money is growing on trees lately.

Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s. Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.

Lots and lots of money can be made in bubbles. Just make sure YOU rotate into value before everyone else! I agree on the house money strategy. You can make many multiples of your investment but can only lose 100%. Huge advantage if you know what you're doing. I trimmed some of my GEOS position today and took off another 1/3 of BEAM.

Any specific reason on timing price etc? I generally agree. For one, the market is kinda scaring me a little. Lots of euphoria. I think the tech/WFH stuff burst with the vaccine and will at best bleed out as the recovery play stuff becomes more en vogue, or at worst deflate into a more rational but still expensive valuation. But just off the top of my head, I won't even mention RE cuz thats just what we do and it was stupid cheap anyway, but I have/had a good half dozen positions(stuff like BTC, FSR, PLTR, SBE, JMIA) that have at least doubled in just the last few weeks. As much as I'd like to think of myself as that damn good, its only honest to say that this is not healthy or normal, especially when most of these things already seemed irrationally priced(with the exception maybe of PLTR) to begin with and largely moved on absolutely NO NEWS. So I ve been selling down a lot of the spec stuff and looking for some options should this mania subside.

Ended up adding a few FSR.ws at 5.10 Shares at $20 but warrants priced as if stock is at $16.6 w/ no time value. When shares were recently at $10 warrants were at $2. Seems like a reasonable margin of safety is built in via the disconnect.

Flirting with putting on a short FSR common and long the warrants pair here. Currently at ~$20 on the shares and warrants only at $5.30. Happens somewhat frequently with these names.

Not trying to be the smartest guy in the market was some of the best advice I ever received when it came to investing. You kind of want to be a jack of all traits but a master of none.

I'm looking at and been buying stuff typically 20-30% OTM. I dont know if I'd expect them to necessarily get there, but if the current trend and unwind continues I think these will be effected more than most. The market in general is pretty euphoric right now. Kill two birds with one stone by hedging through some of the high beta names. A simple 10-20% drop in the next month or so on some of these should payout reasonable well.

Bought some March puts on BYND, PTON

Humble mans got the #2 trade Ive seen on COBF quietly and without much bragging. NIO at what? $1.50 I think you said, now at ....dont even know anymore as if goes up $10 a day but last I checked like $50 or something. Second only to this fella https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/enph-enphase-energy/

Ive used a number of places over the years and IMO Interactive Brokers sucks but you cant beat their margin rates and also margin reqs. Overall though, I really like Fidelity. The layout is simple. Customer service is great. I trade a reasonable amount and pairing tax lots is also very easy/simple, especially vs IB. Oddly enough, I hate all the professional service platforms Ive ever used. Thomson One, Sunguard, etc....Stone Age stuff.

Trimmed SPG, ESRT, both about 10%, sold all VNO(smaller trading position), exited all SBE.ws, and most of PIC.

Bubble, yes. Looks very similar to previous blockchain and cannabis bubbles over the past half decade. Still my favorite way to play is through pre deal announcement spac and even post announcement, pre deal close names as you still have a hard floor of $10. But yea, these arent good investments...with the occasional exception of course.