winjitsu

+1. End of life care (stage 7 fully assisted, plus possible funeral expenses) means you're going to want to keep a large chunk of cash or near liquid assets. I think most people underestimate these incredibly expensive final months unless the family has committed to something like assisted death or early hospice care. 4 years isn't enough to go through a market cycle, so I'm not sure you'd want to have that much equity exposure unless you are certain you don't need that money. Annuity might not be a bad idea since you take out market risk and longevity risk off the table.

I think you might need to do a %GDP comparison, but could only think of Defense Contractors during war-time economies that might see this level and percentage of increase.

Jonn Litt at Land and Buildings https://landandbuildings.com/corporate-engagement/

MACK filled at 14.65 SMCI 700/600 Jan '25 Bear Spread. First time "trading" like this in a while. I wouldn't be surprised if "they" tried to gamma squeeze this again on Friday.

Yes, I was looking at Autozone

@FCharlie how are you getting 6-7x P/E here? Showing 16-17x on TIKR and my quick glance at the Q is in the same ballpark.

Does anyone keep a current P/BV valuation up to date for BRK accounting for investment portfolio changes? I use this in a pinch but I'm sure that the BV value is from 9/30, missing the recent stock rally. Still feels like BRK is overbought and trending towards 1.6x P/BV now

LPs need to withholding their funds from Pershing and pressure Neri to step down (divorce). Give Ackmann a taste of his own medicine

+1: alternative link w/ a linkedin post https://pod.link/founders/episode/3881122c82a75af6aa955add76c58315 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/davidsenra_i-had-dinner-with-charlie-munger-i-spent-activity-7043994140522479616-LeHG?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Love the new site! Since it's new and people are throwing in suggestions. One thing I see on gambling forums that I think this forum could benefit from is an Diary / Journal section for members to post their portfolio updates / investments. Thinking an entire subforum for posts like this: I know there are lots of people that would love to establish credibility and a track record on their way to managing OPM. This would be a great springboard for them.

Respect for Bruce, but he and Eddie had the "smartest guys in the room" type hubris with Sears. It's this hubris that led them to oversize the position. That rubbed me the wrong way. Chamath OTOH, don't get that vibe from him. Definitely more snake-oil salesman / pump-and-dump.

Not India specific, but generally for a VC investment, atleast one of the investors in the round needs to lead the series (determine pricing) and go through the basic diligence steps (verify real prototypes, right team etc etc). If they have a lead investor lined up and they are looking more money to finish up the raise, I'd say it's worthwhile to consider. If it's pre-product, your making a big bet into the management team and the story, so I'd focus there. If you're a lone angel / seed investor, there's no lead investor, and you're too far to do the diligence ... that would be an easy pass in my book.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-spac-man-chamath-palihapitiya-speaks-reddit-and-wall-street-listen-11615006818?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Another article. I hope we're at peak Chamath. "In an emailed statement through a spokesman, Palihapitiya said he would redirect the funds from the share sale toward a “large investment” focused on the fight against climate change." Next bubble found? ESG next? :)

Not getting the hate on VZ. Seems like a good company at a great price given ZIRP. Going through a capex supercycle with 5G, but when built out is done, should begin to pick up market share from cable internet cos. Definitely slipped my radar and will be looking to pick up a tracking position. Feeling meh on CVX though. Previous investments like XOM, PSX, and Flying J I would say were an overall mixed bag (but maybe... this time it's different? Like airlines? :P)

I'd take the same trade too. Only points out the massive return asymmetry in the companies he's peddling.

Here's a market topping interview if I've ever seen one: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/the-king-of-spacs-wants-you-to-know-he-s-the-next-warren-buffett?srnd=premium

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke. A poker book but makes you think hard about position sizing with randomness and uncertainty. Man For All Markets: Thorp's book and how he uses Kelly Criterion. Buffett's investments in AMEX or Li Lu in BYD: -> Knowing when to plunge. As an inverse case, see Mark Sellers in Contango Oil and Gas -> when plunging goes wrong.

Nah. This is a generational thing. Boomers made ZIRP asset bubbles while generating a massive debt-fuel deficit to shore up their cushy pensions and 401ks. Considering the average Robinhood user is a millennial with an account size of $6,000, this really is sticking it to the man.

Looked at the stock chart. Remember laughing at Chamath's "2025 Ebitda prediction". This is insane.

My dumb guesses: 1. Would a Biden AG keep on the anti-trust pressure started by Barr? (not sure -- though legislation seems a better avenue but with split congress will be hard and case seems shaky) 2. Will FCC reverse course, back to net-neutrality? (probably)

Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity

They have a nice asset in Wyoming, which is cost-advantaged relative to synthetic production, and cost-advantaged relative to other trona miners. However, I don't trust management. Didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out they inflating annual production through deca rehydration, and eventually production would drop off significantly. The manner in which they disclosed this made them appear either dishonest or incompetent. Happy to chat more about this one on a dedicated thread for CINR. Read the same VIC pitch and I'm in too. Lets start one :)

What are you looking for. A prime broker (holding funds + trading)? Or capital introductions (raising money)? All the big banks do both, but you need a certain amount of assets.

SOGO merger arb by Tencent Buyout price @ 9 cash, currently trading at 8.86, expected closing Q4. Looking at 1.6% return in ~ 3 months for a well financed buyer.

Could be painful this quarter w/ PS5 + XSX releases, but I like the trade :)