Smazz

This is a very good point, and probably does have real relevance to the comparison. I would just add a few countervailing points to the mix: (1) just as most households today are 2 income households (or were), and so have some income coming in still, most households require two incomes to stay afloat, or at least two incomes to keep spending the way they were and savings a bit for retirement. So, losing one of two incomes probably means doing away with the saving, and drags out the housing situation because they have enough income coming in to keep the house payment up for a while, but like a structural deficit, will require selling the home long-term to downsize to a lower overall monthly payment; and (2) the way unemployment is calculated has changed so much over the past 15 - 20 years that it is probably way undercalculated today from how it was in the 1980s (i.e., the government keeps moving the line whenever it suits them with respect to unemployment and inflation, for political reasons). Overall, perhaps it's a wash? Here is something that never gets mentioned when comparing employment levels: Today everyone over age 65 is getting an income -- it's called Social Security, but they're not "employed". Logically though, an income is an income. This income is also reasonably secure. If instead of "employment" levels we were to focus on percentage of adults who live in a household with an income, that would perhaps be more meaningful in terms of measuring the level of financial insecurity out there. I dont think you can classify that as a true income as it truley is below the poverty level. At best a part time income. You can also speculate that "everyday" living costs (Utility costs etc ) and standards are higher today than they were back in the day.

I would agree with him here on this one if the players today were those of his generation - but they are not. We have a different society today - those that want it now and pay for it later.

I also wanted to know who would be buying en masse with the "real" data out there? 10% unemployment? How good can it possibly get even in 12 months. In addition, all the positive (if you can call it that) numbers of the last quarter can in many ways be attributed to the infusion by the govt. I dont know, I keep shaking my head.

approx 10% Ent Value gone and thats how bad he feels? Damn, someone sleeps too well at night. I do not own. Prob will have alot of time to do research on this one before it goes anywhere fast!

I tried to explain this to someone the other day: imagine being an avg hitter but you are allowed 1000 balls if you want? :o

Im kind of bored today... Dont take this poll to seriously - Im sure this thread will take twists and turns but on this terribly (in the North East) humid day - the answer on the poll will give a good indication of your current economic sentiment. BTW, notice quite a few double digit decreases today so I may be opening my wallet soon! :)

He closed his partnership not because it was a go go era but because everything he would like to buy was priced too high relative to what he would reap from it in future earnings. Calling it a go go era makes no difference. absolutely

Remember too, Buffett did close his fund up way back in the day when he just did not feel comfortable in this (at that time) market. The problem today is he is way to big to do that. None of us here are that big. Im going to bet had he been the size he was back in the 50s he would have taken that coarse again. One word to all those thinking being a value investor is just buying and holding no matter what because the future will work itself out, comparing things to multiples of the past - we'll Im sorry, being a value investor to me is buying something at the lowest possible price relative to future earnings assuming these earnings are above US gauranteed rate. I feel alot of people get to romantic about investing here.

No Disrespect but Bill Miller said the same thing 2 years ago. :)

I wonder how many people will remember the thread we had going on then about this very subject? Im happy with my decisions.

Forget the political views - no admin is going to get 1/2 the unemployed population to work in months no matter what the plan is. There are currently 2-3x as many unemployed as there were in any year in the last decade. The only time you will find anything close to this level (in numbers) of unemployment you have to go back to the early 80s and we currently are at 40% more than that time period. Fortunately (at that time) there was no where to go but up (meaning down)in monetary policy and a young baby boom generation with a real need for consumer products. Today, we have the opposite in alot of ways. Im not trying to be doom and gloom but i like to be a realist. Are there Companys that are trading in low multiples that should have decent earnings in the years to come? Yes, but not many. As ive said before, I just keep my cash in my pocket till the opportunities are essentially begging me to buy. What we currently have is surplus in capacity and durables brought on by the exhuberant and intoxicating decade and until that dries up it will be tough sledding. Dpnt shoot this messenger ;)

Not cheap. Theres quite a bit of the onion to pull back here still.

Ive never listened to those Schmos!

The easiest way to raise taxes and cut spending is to employ people. Now someone go and figure that out!

Not a terribly bad idea infront of what could be a bad hurricane season. $this amt would have taken care of their share of Katrina and they arent even close to what they would have been on the hook for prekatrina ie. they've exited certain lines etc.

I like this guy (Shilling) - he doenst try to get too technical - hes a big picture person. FWIW, I am all in cash right now - just got out of an ARB position I was in to make a quick $ but almost got kicked in the nuts with this latest downturn.

CONGRATS! And I hate BETTMAN! ;)

Thats it in a nutshell- on top of that nothing comes in from the Broker statements on currency. This is not an excuse but if it was an issue they would be the first to be "yelled at" I think. File this under "dont ask, dont tell"

Haha, Al, I didnt even know this thread was here (re. my post from other thread) - good stuff ;D Yes, I use RY. For the few times Ive done it (no gettin it you know where from the broker) maybe most liquid AND, when im doing these type of Arb situations I like to do it with something I can sleep with if shit hits the fan and i have to hold the asset for a while. For me, this is the way to do it because the increased volatility means increased gains! AL, dont pay the broker the 1.5-2% they are making on the currency ;) Put it in your daughters education fund!

Al, are you doing straight up currency, using margin or buying dual listed? Ive done it with dual listed shares with decent success. Good way to make some $ in choppy waters (but like all rides on choppy waters will prob need some graval ;D)

How has the liquidity been on the pinks?

On the Canadian side: The volume hasnt been the best so dont expect a super liquid situation right now. i.e. I have had quite a few trades not get consumated. Some were not full blocks but back in the day most got filled ;) not so much now. I personally dont like market orders but if you want in maybe the best route.

oh man, thanks!

I notice sometimes I am trying to reply to a post - I am quoting a previous post and as I am typing words (it maybe when i am editing-cant remember) the screen goes up and down - i can get words in but i cant really see it. Does it have to do with the Admin settings of the forum? i.e. the forum/posting is set to a certain amount of characters? If anyone knows would be appreciated - there is another forum i am on and it does the same thing. Its only in posts with alot of content/text/characters. Thanks

oh, did you want that password book back? ;D Damn you!