Smazz

considering we are a petro currency/economy - those rates are bizarre.

Absolutely, The Cdn Govt is in a pickle. They are trying everything to stop the housing boomble - they cant raise interest rates for a number of reasons. Interesting times.

Well not really a reason but: Canadas employment situation thanks to it being a Petro/Mining Economy Toronto and Vancouver being Canadas New York and Chicago (those areas demand continue to outstrip supply) Canadas interest rates are predominantly always lower than those in the States. Some pretty damn good Real Estate salesman telling, especially new buyers" its a always a good time to buy Probably not restricted to Canada but when developers build mass housing communities they are able allocate short mortgages to new buyers most of which would not get a mortgage the conventional way. That is it in a nutshell. In addition, Most of Canadas population is along the US border in On so you get the majority of homeowners chasing those locals.

not taking any direct shots but man, I see alot of assumptions here.

California has all the cool names for towns/cities I plan to move there one of these years, I just need a sugar momma! ;)

Canada has had 30 year mortgages. Some of the majors are just now restricting the 35 yr amorts.

Thats why you have to think for yourself on every transaction. Smart $ took a chunk of USG. I know WEB is smarter than I but i couldnt see the logic in that one.

There were too many homes related to jobs just a few years ago.. since then NET jobs are down yet homes are still being built. There are alot of drunken sailors out there - I may seem like a prude for not joining into the party but i'll keep for sobering days.

With some estimates now coming in at anywhere between $200 - $300B (and historically estimates for disasters are always on the load side) - I guess from a financial standpt the question arises, what percentage will insurers be on the hook for.

if estimates are close, they should get out of it "okay" but thats a big "if"

And then there is Arizona!! It would drive me crazy having to look at fake grass though!

Alwaysinvert, I tend to agree with you. If we didnt have the nuclear power we have now (especially in NA and some Euro countries) the alternative would be nothing less than environmental waste land - not to mention the inability to maintain any similar degree of productivity. Withl the nuclear that is out there producing huge proportions of nations power, we really need to look at these situations in perspective. Im never one to overlook human loss but the realities of our lifestyles are that we live with risks everyday. Just driving on the hiway to work for alot of people - they are at real risks which they dont think of day to day. In the Japan case, some time down the road we will see why these plants were built where they were. Was it a perfect storm or just cutting corners? Who knows. One thing we do know for almost certain about the current climate, and this is not to be a fear monger, but we know government agencies no matter which will only communicate the absolute minimum reqd. Partly to not fuel the fear but also to cover their ass as long as possible.

Double wammy for the US$? And dont forget those cute Euros

Say welcome to QE3! And because things are in such bad shape that there needs to be a QE3 this will be a great reason for a rise in equity markets. Would be funny if it wasnt true. just watch. It reminds me of musical chairs or something....

And they are usually on the consvertavive (positive) side so you may be more right!

I dont want to get into reactors pros and cons (and I am no kind of expert, just a layman) but i do know, or am aware that not all Nuclear plants have the same cooling methods. I believe those we have here in Ontario would not be affected the same way as those in Japan because of the cooling methods. Its unfortunate but truley what the plants provide vs the dangers when comparing them in sum to other methods of power creation is minimal - and Im not saying these deaths are minimal - just mean there are deaths from other methods as power generation as well.

with a stock portfolio thats basically 100% hedged i doubt they'll make much there except maybe a few percentage alpha points annually over time. i'd be watching their bond investments. dont know how their cpi derivatives will pan out. They'll prob sell some hedges in the height of fear and hold onto and add to equities? Maybe corp bonds as well. Look at the income stream rising. Costs are usually the easiest ways to add to pos cash flow (addition by subtraction) unfortunately not THAT easy in the insurance world when it comes to the variables that affect CRs. EDIT: Forgot to mention CDS - I believe they should be soaring, just cant remember if or to what extent FFH holds here.

I believe its already been noted but just in case, everyone is talking about Japan but there are still other significant items on the books from before that for Q1.

FFH I know best and am most confortable if i am going to go in shortly. Flagstone FSR I will admit, I am not up to speed enough to make a declaration however they are getting bitchslapped like nobodys business. Warranted/unwarranted? There is a song "Billy dont be a hero". I dont like to die so i wont try to be one yet. FSR I believe there was a thread on them in the ideas section (may have been you Myth) so whomever can add to that to bring some of us up to speed.

patience ;)

As I mentioned in an earlier post - i believe the companies dont even know what the liabilities will be - not at this point. Go back and look at most of the Katrina estimates - way off. Thats true but its the best you are going to get in terms of a starting point. We arent going to know much at all. Take the estimate and discount it as much as you like. I would also guess some insurers are better then others, depending on if they have cap limits and reinsurance. I think some can accurately give you a maximum exposure number depending on how the policies are setup. My experience has been the stocks will get pummeled.. the estimates will come out - the stocks get pummelled - the real numbers come out - the stocks get pummelled. All the info is now there and they dont move for a while because for whatever reason Insurance Cos dont accelerate quickly after a closer number has come out. I have profited with this method but doesnt mean it works for everyone - especiallly if you dont have the patience.

As I mentioned in an earlier post - i believe the companies dont even know what the liabilities will be - not at this point. Go back and look at most of the Katrina estimates - way off.

Guys dont put too much faith into the estimates of this Tsunami/Earthquake. I remember the Katrina days and EVERYONE was way underestimating in the numbers relative the actuals when they came out in the wash - Even FFH.

My eyes are bleeding :o ........Im going to pick FFH because i can buy cheaper with my CAD$ ;)

My finger is on the trigger....