LongTermView

I just listened to much of it again. Here are some cliff notes: Charlie Munger on Harvard Law: Overwhelmingly, the students arguing for the motion believed strongly that they were right. English actor Cedric Hardwicke: I've been a great actor for so long that I can no longer remember or know what I think about any subject. Even the temples and churches make you repeat things because as you shout it out, you pound it in. The "best ideas" fund were the companies that the managers spent the most time on. The human mind is a lot like the human egg. The commitment and consistency bias: spending time on companies is likely to make me biased Warren Buffett: What human beings are best at doing is interpreting new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact. 1st hack Just being aware of the bias. Be fluent in the other side of the argument. If you're going long then spend time developing a thesis on why to go short. 2nd hack Just say no fast. 
3rd hack In the quest for investments, be unreasonable.

Part of it can be seen when he answers the question about when to sell. He basically says not to sell compounders unless their price becomes egregious.

Great talk, I like the story about picking up discarded tickets at the race track.

Yeah, that was interesting.

I was surprised that no one asked about this.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing when reading their 95% figure mentioned earlier.

95% by 2030 is very specific. If I had to bet on this then I'd take the under with respect to the 95%. What about people using cars as lockers/storage? Among other things, my car has golf clubs, golf shoes, gym bags, a yoga mat, jogging shoes, sun tan lotion, hats, umbrellas, measuring tapes, books, roof rack tie downs and levels. What about folks who have tools and equipment in and on their vehicles? Also, as other have said, this underestimates the impact of people in rural areas where it is more practical to keep a vehicle on site. What about people like Nick Offerman who enjoy driving their own cars? Some parts of Tony's video left an impression: 100x fewer moving parts in electric vehicles than internal combustion vehicles. LIDAR costs have fallen dramatically. it takes 2,500 liters of water to make 1 liter of ethanol from sugar cane

Good article. I agree that Greg Abel is a logical bet as the successor.

Related to this, I read some parts of the 10-K more carefully than others. For example, Buffett talks about many risk factors being known already - I don't spend much time in parts of that section.

Is anyone going to the GuruFocus event at 7pm Friday night at the DoubleTree Downtown Omaha?

Paul, Lunch sounds good but I don't land until the early evening tomorrow. I'm up for coffee/beer both Friday and Saturday evenings. Cheers, Eric

Interesting that Todd said there might be only 3 or 4 phone calls during the entire week.

I'm reading through it now - still in the early parts of the book about blackjack.

It almost sounds like the answer is on an individual level. I mean on a summary level adding up all verticals and clients. Also, how much does it change from one month to the next?

LC, Approximately what percentage are your sources spending on mobile ads as opposed to desktop ads?

Scott, I think you said FB led you to GOOG. In my case GOOG led me to FB. Either way, why question successful cigar butt strategies? Isn't it a reasonable bet that certain cigar butts, GOOG, and FB will all outperform the S&P 500 over the next three years?

I looked at the 2015 annual report again today: $262,604 million = $159,794*1,643,393 Here is what I get from the notes to consolidated financial statements: $61,181 Insurance cash [balance Sheet] $3,437 Rail cash [balance Sheet] $7,112 Finance cash [balance Sheet] $25,988 Insurance fixed maturity [Note 3] $39 Financed fixed maturity [Note 3] $110,212 Insurance equity securities [Note 4] $1,238 Rail eqity securities [Note 4] $372 Finance equity securities [Note 4] $15,998 Insurance other [Note 5] $5,719 Finance other [Note 5] $23,679 Fair value Kraft common [Note 18] $8,363 Fair value Kraft preferred [Note 18] -------- $263,338 million Of course we get the same thing if we use the balance sheet directly (except for the Kraft Heinz part): $61,181 Ins. Cash and equivalents $25,988 Ins. Fixed maturity $110,212 Ins. Equity securities $15,998 Ins. Other $23,679 Fair value Kraft common [Note 18] $8,363 Fair value Kraft preferred [Note 18] $3,437 Rail Cash and equivalents $1,238 Rail equity sec* $7,112 Finance cash and equivalents $411 Finance equity/fixed $5,719 Finance other -------- $263,338 million *Included in other assets. Maybe non-controlling interests account for the difference between $262.6 billion and $263.4 billion? What about the $87,722 million float liability on page 10, is it being treated as zero? What about the $25,117 million investment tax liability on page 60, is that treated as zero as well?

Yeah, the entire Green Bay offense was amazing. It was incredible how much time they gave Rodgers, especially during the first half.

Yeah, it is a great book.

Not sure. They're closed to new investors, right? His 2015 q4 13F showed $79.9 million but his 2016 q3 filing shows just $35.4 million so apparently we're now missing more positions. Maybe foreign stocks and/or shorts?

Wow, that was a nice read. Thanks for the link! This part reminded me of Apple fans with stickers on their cars:

Thanks for posting, that was enjoyable. The part when Paul Lountzis points out that Geico is well under book value is interesting: Whitney Tilson brings up some concerns as to what things will look like after Buffett steps down:

I agree that the letter to shareholders is important.

14 for me as well.

Yeah, it's a good book.