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ratiman

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Everything posted by ratiman

  1. The "market cap" of bitcoin is $360 billion, roughly. Nobody would suggest that the Walmart float could be cornered, how is bitcoin different? There is unlimited supply of bitcoin because it can be shorted and there are futures. There is no shortage of bitcoin in fact there is so much bitcoin that bitcoin fanboys have to constantly pump it to keep it going. You don't see Walmart shareholders constantly pumping because they don't have to. You don't see Walmart shareholders saying "Look an insurance company bought some Walmart. This thing is unstoppable! Buy Walmart!"
  2. The difference between 2020 and 2017 is that everybody's already heard of bitcoin. At it's peak in 2017 bitcoin was traded in NBA locker rooms. Those superspreaders have moved on to whatever is cool these days, I have no idea, probably Tiktok or something. But it's not bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to mature into a respectable institutional asset but all those institutional buyers are secretly expecting Bitcoin 2017 to happen again. It's not happening again and when it doesn't they will be left looking like the equally stale "hello fellow kids" meme.
  3. Manias don't happen twice. You can't get the public in a frenzy a second time about a distributed public ledger. I'll be glad to come back here again and admit that I was wrong but I think all the sharks cornering the float are like those guys who bought up all the hand sanitizer and had nobody to sell it to.
  4. The bitcoin run in 2017 was a wild ride full of thrills and laughs and great memories. This is a grim grind higher driven mostly by strategically timed press releases. It's going to be hilarious when 100 hedge fund managers simultaneously realize that they're the bagholders.
  5. I buy a lot of crappy $2 stocks and the commissions at IBKR are killing me. Second, IBKR will nickel and dime you and the platform is too hard to understand. Second, these brokerages put a ton of money into things I don't need like charting or news or screens or whatever. They would all be much better off just offering bare bones trading with no platform. It's not possible that anybody actually picks Etrade for the charting. I used Firstrade for a long time and it was fine. Finally, I happen to think that selling order flow is a good thing. If the buyers of order flow think I'm an idiot and want to trade against me, that would be great.
  6. I was thinking of shifting my account over there but noticed no trailing stops. How do you find it?
  7. He seems to be making a deliberately paradoxical argument. He's saying "the market isn't efficient, nobody can make money any more." But that's why you can make money in the market, because it's not efficient. He just sounds like a quant who's complaining because quant value strategies don't work any longer. That might be true. But there is no guarantee that mechanical strategies would work forever. I have to add that part of my annoyance with his argument is that he begins every answer with "So . . ."
  8. Buying some Sandridge, the graveyard of oil and gas tourists. Results look good, all the debt is gone after the HQ sale.
  9. Looks like the rule change isn't going to happen. Good work guys. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/sec-push-to-keep-more-hedge-fund-investments-secret-fails-report-says/ar-BB1arjw1 Public comments on the proposed rule change were nearly unanimous in their disapproval. An analysis by Goldman Sachs found only 24 comments out of 2,238 supported the rule change. Large corporations opposed the move because it would give them less understanding of who their shareholders are, and other market participants decried the reduced transparency that would result from the change, and which would depress investor confidence. Bloomberg reported that SEC officials were suprised by the level of opposition, but a statement said the regulator will continue to look for ways to reform the rule. “It remains clear that the current threshold is outdated,” the agency told Bloomberg. “The comments received illustrate that the form is being used in ways that were not originally anticipated when the form was adopted. We are focused on examining these important issues before we move forward with determining the appropriate threshold.”
  10. If you have an Amazon sellers account you can use the sellers search tool and that will show you all the results, not just the ones Amazon wants you to see. Often there is a lazy seller who has a much cheaper price especially if its a used book that went through multiple editions.
  11. Thanks. Secinfo does the same thing (also for a fee) but Feedly works fine.
  12. TIKR is a great tool but I'm wondering how people track things like SEC filings. If you have 100 stocks you follow how do you follow the SEC filings on those stocks? Do you use something like Feedly? Or is there some other way to do it, maybe within TIKR?
  13. I just look to see who the biggest holders are. If the biggest holders are Vanguard and State St., that probably means the stock is not that popular with institutions. If the largest holders are Fidelity and Wellington, that probably means it's an institutional favorite. If the largest holders are hedge funds, that will also tell you something.
  14. You're right, somebody has this information. I don't know if it's valuable info (probably not) but the public might as well have it too if insiders have it.
  15. Basically what the title says. Is there anyone who wants this? I can't imagine who it helps. Small managers probably like the reporting because it's a form of marketingy. It also gives company managements an idea who owns the stock. There'll be some push back against this.
  16. I agree with this. Some hosts are just unlistenable. There are a ton of podcasts and most of them are bad very niche.
  17. You can only pick one unfortunately so pleae pick one.
  18. Online communities probably have a reverse Gresham's law. Quantity wins over quantity. You can complain about the volume posters but they're the ones keeping the site alive. If you show up and there are no posts you stop showing up. Of course there is a point where there is too much quantity but COBF isn't even close to that. There also needs to be a mix of serious posters and trolls. I'm afraid COBF might not have enough trolls. I try to do my part but I can't do it all by myself.
  19. Any company that makes a percentage revenues - brokers, franchisors, mineral rights. In the seventies money market companies made a lot of money, people forget how popular money market funds were during the 1970s. Farmland? Farmers are also going to be hit with higher input costs so I'm not sure about farmland. I think cash flow real estate will do OK but not if you're buying for capital appreciation.
  20. The supply from Petworth and northeast has kept DC prices low. I remember walking around northeast ten years ago and not feeling totally safe, and I walked around southeast ten years ago and was offered drugs from a tinted Toyota and then three DEA agents pulled guns on me. I walked around Anacostia and it was like they had never seen a white guy. Things have changed quite a bit since. In general though I think NoVa is underpriced vs DC because most people want that DC address. Nobody moves to DC from Iowa to live in Fairfax county.
  21. I've read that retail can be as much as 50% of the revenue and 75% of the value of an urban office building. That's hard to believe but if that's true then all these boarded up shops are really bad news for urban office buildings.
  22. With the exception of BBB, aren't the bottom group mostly enclosed mall retailers? And the top group is mostly off-mall?
  23. Why does RESI pay a management fee to AAMC? It's like $4M a quarter or something, IIRC.
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