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ander

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Everything posted by ander

  1. I'm not focused on day they do it re: stock price reaction. I'm looking at what the intrinsic value would be in a decade and would argue the case it would be higher in aggregate. You would have each manager be able to look at smaller investment opportunities. The businesses that Berkshire has acquired they are not trading / disposing -- might just be a yield play. That's if you kept the weight of the 3. I might want more exposure to the new capital that is deployed over the following 10 years and maybe would weight more heavily towards that entity (for example maybe there is excess capital of $50 B -- or pick your number).
  2. I thought there would be a discussion about breaking Berkshire Hathaway up, but I didn't find one. I've been a shareholder for almost 20 years. Buffett was asked the question of a break-up at the AGM, but it's not what I would envision. Maybe break up in 2 or 3 different companies with a stock for each -- no tax consequence. Not selling off the pieces. You can have an insurance entity and the related float required to support it / another business with the operating entities (option for a 3rd company with excess capital). Could lead to greater outperformance since size is the anchor of performance. Thoughts? AGM - Buffett response
  3. I'm in the same boat. I'm not going to pay for CNBC Pro either.
  4. When will you take a vaccine -- assuming it's available?
  5. It's often done by high growth cos (software, etc.). Unfortunately - a great way for bankers to make some extra money too. Companies often end up wasting money on the calls they purchase to increase the strike in case the stock price performance underwhelms. Part of the argument is that they end up getting a lower rate on the financing (the interest rate on the convert is lower) versus if they had just borrowed the money. But yes, I don't usually like it but if the company fundamentals and valuation is compelling enough, I live with it.
  6. Spoke w/ a merger-arb investor. He stayed away b/c of big premium 100%+ and it's biotech, so too much risk. He's not able to get up to speed on it since it's biotech and he does not have domain expertise (similar to most merger-arb guys). My guess is if it was a 20% premium then merger-arb guys could get comfort with the downside being lower. Here they assume that the downside is back to where the price was before deal was announced. However, on CNBC GILD CEO said there was a bidding war and process had been 2 months so unlikely it would go back to that level.
  7. Thanks. Luck as the bid / asks are wide and moving around. (and hopefully good luck -- barring some left tail risk and deal blows up!).
  8. I wrote some 80 strike sept 25th expiration puts for $2.00 per share.
  9. I took more risk and wrote the 2023 puts at 65 strike. What you're doing might be the smarter play in that you get value for the theta (time decay) and can end up in the same spot while rolling over every week, versus I get stuck. And even better may be writing the higher strike puts when they're available like you said.
  10. Anyone surprised that it's at $84 in a 0% interest rate environment -- basically yielding close to 5% upon tendering the shares?
  11. I don't see anything to do. Please let me know if you have any ideas.
  12. Hard to predict regulatory agencies, but unlikely that deal is rejected (e.g, cancer is highly competitive space, there isn't a concentration of indications being addressed, etc.). High probability of deal being completed is what I would guess. Besides the short term puts on IMMU, what other risk arb positions were you thinking?
  13. I think you need to tax effect the loss that you are embedding, but this is how I think about it as well. Thx. Would have to do that with gains as well. Including share-based payment awards, BV per share is closer to $376 which would be 0.83x BV.
  14. When looking at book value per share, wouldn't it be fair to adjust the Investments in Associates to Fair Value. ($4,684.7 carrying value - $3,669.0 fair value = $1,087 impact to Common Equity ... $11,458.7 common equity - $1,087 = $10,371.7 adjust common equity divided by 26.487 shares outstanding = $391 adjusted BV per share ... $313 share price / $391 is 0.8x book value). Still cheap at 0.8x but not as cheap. Thoughts?
  15. First time I'm doing a deep dive on Fairfax. Have not previously been a shareholder. I saw that Prem invested with David Sokol a couple of years ago. He was speculated to be heir apparent at BRK before implied questions of integrity (I do not have a strong view on the situation, but on the face of it, it did seem what David did was inappropriate in the spirit of highest integrity). Any thoughts on Prem's decision to invest with David Sokol? I'm looking at it from the perspective of BRK tries to measure themselves with the highest integrity. There were some questions about Prem's practices several years ago, which I am comfortable with. Prem is a big admirer of BRK. Was his decision to work with David Sokol questioned?
  16. US based investors do you buy the local in Canada or FRFHF? The FRFHF not as liquid and wider bid / asks. Any other considerations?
  17. Anyone familiar with this asset? Obviously he's betting on volumes / continued demand of natural gas that's transport across state lines. Wondering if anyone has any more insights on long-term drivers? anything else that's attractive about the business? (maybe that since it's difficult to build new pipelines, its an even more attractive asset?).
  18. Does anyone know the formula that Berkshire charges its managers for incremental capital or the credit they’re given for the capital they return to the parent? I’m speaking of the operating cos.
  19. that's awesome...where did you see that? or was that photoshopped?
  20. Is there any limit to this stuff? So much commentary that the Fed will likely buy corporate bonds and then later equities. What is the consequence of all of this? I guess is worked out ok after the GFC. There was no substantial inflation (or were we just not measuring the right goods).
  21. Sorry created a correct Poll thread here. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus-survey-17991/
  22. I wanted to create a survey to get a sense on what assumptions the market may be pricing into the market. For the purpose of this survey, I'm using the US only to focus on one geography. Poll results available to anyone that votes.
  23. I wanted to create a survey to get a sense on what assumptions the market may be pricing into the market. For the purpose of this survey, I'm using the US only to focus on one geography. When do you think that coronavirus is effectively contained (growth of less than 10 cases per day in the US)? A) around the end of April 2020 (sometime in Q2 2020). B) around the end of July 2020 (sometime in Q3 2020). C) around the end of October 2020 (sometime in Q4 2020). D) 2021. E) 2022 or after.
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