Vish_ram

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/1gZULbVBt7

If all these folks headed to Bogleheads group, they would've been richer by 100s of millions.

I've a simple Buffett rule in evaluating investments. If something trades at $100B, then it has to produce 10% of cash that can be taken out at some point in the near future or now with moderate growth. ETH with 315B market cap should produce $30B/year to the owners of the token. Help me understand how we can get there? BTC doesn't have to do any of this as it is treated as a store of value.

The first mover advantage, use as store of value (as opposed to currency), traction and growth makes is harder for late comers to become a store of value. I'm aware that ETH hasn't inflated last 5 years but it hasn't been accepted as store of value. You don't see corporates, countries use ETH as a reserve. It is a hammer in search of a nail. A tool in search of a use case in non-crypto world. ETH may find value as a currency but still not cheap enough, it'll still lose out to Layer 2 of BTC. It cannot compete against XRP and win. It can still act as a platform for dApps. But the market hasn't expanded to non-crypto world. When was the last time an average non-crypto person is forced to use some ETH platform in the background? I've not seen that yet. Please let me know. If we've such a case, then what's the NPV of that. BTC being a store of value can get market share from Gold, investment properties, equities, bond market etc. BTW, @[email protected] , your knowledge of ETH is infinitely more than mine, what's the growth and NPV of ETH dApps? how does it compare to current ETH value?

Here is what I struggle to find the value. BTC - "Rai stones of the yap" on internet. Gaining traction. Non-crypto folks putting their savings in it. So conceptually working XRP - All projects are in pilot stage, no real world usage and traction of cross border payments ETH - what non-crypto companies are using it?

1. A shit coin 2. unlimited supply (as per protocol) 3. lost race to BTC as store of value 4. losing mind/market share to other shit coins 5. No real world traction of using it for smart/dumb contracts 6. Market is a voting machine in the long run and voting it as a shit coin

In PIF2 case, it is not the "assets are overvalued so close for new clients" scenario. It is the advisor who just lost it thing. It is hard for anyone to accept that they lost it. The way the returns are shown, one can continue the charade for decades. That is my main point. 1 in a million can discern that.

In your example above, why should the advisor be punished when additional capital pours in at the wrong time? That is the bad timing of new clients. You cannot expect the advisor to close funds at peak of the market.

Mutual fund Industry doesn’t use MWR but makes sense in PE and others. Even with TWR, a major factor influencing one’s personal return is timing of entry and addition. you can invest only in S&P and massively underperform/outperform it.

When an advisor shows returns, the pertinent question to ask is, what is the cumulative return assuming one joined in each of past years. Some may show life time CAGR that looks bad against S&P, but over the years if they are getting better and better, then except for few who joined on Day 1, most of latter would have done well. Pabrai avoided the .com collapse and was in the value stocks during early phase and is living off the past glory by showing a return of first few investors (when he was managing < 10M). 99% of capital that got in later (after 2nd year) got thrashed by S&P. The annualized and cumulative percentages are misleading as it shows the % for first investor on Day 1. If I do this for PIF4, it’ll look like those Reddit WSB loss porn.

sorry for not making it clear and for the small error (I should have ignored last row as period sequencing was interrupted). I've recomputed it manually. For first period of 10/1/00-6/30/01 - Investor invests 100K on 10/1/00 and holds it until 6/30/23. Investor puts 100K in each of PIF2 and S&P. This is cumulative return. Formula for excel row 2 S&P 500 is (1-.14)*(1-.18)*(1+.03)....*(1+.1960)* 100K = 472,629.02 for S&P 500 life to date Formula for excel row 2 PIF2 is (1+.1740)*(1+.353).....*(1+.2460) * 100K = $953,727.79 For excel row 3, I do the same starting with row 3 returns onwards.

assume that in the beginning of each period, the person comes up with 100K and invests. Whats the value if the person never sold and kept it life to date. The last column is difference between S&P and PIF2. this is the money the investor got extra or lost investing in PIF2.

Reality vs Looks

It was around 2014 when a guy from some bitcoin exchange came to our MBA class (Emory). He talked for an hour and then we discussed for another hour. The class had a lively discussion. In the end only one tried to buy but couldn't and no one else bought it. 1) I thought it was a brilliant idea, to take back control of money printing away from Govt. I was 100% convinced that it is a threat to all Govt as that they'll ban it in short order 2) I was pissed that it had gone up from <$1 to $250 in a short few years and that this guy has come here to pump it up. It was a radical concept then and still radical for many now. COVID reintroduced me to inflation and the extent of money printing and crazy run up in prices along with deficits changed my whole perspective. I realized that all investing is just preservation of wealth (+ small growth in real terms).

Thanks for sharing this. Looking back being a MBA, I detested BTC. When I lost trust in the system due to uncontrollable deficits & reckless spending, subconsciously I had warmed up to it. the link perfectly explains this.

SWF assets: All confiscated assets that are proven to be part of criminal operation that Govt isn’t selling, If Govt bails out anyone, SWF will get some warrants. any NIH funding to private results in issuance of equity to SWF. only prob is that Dems will squander it away when they regain power.

Same boat. Enjoy being a RIA. I’ll do this even if I reach $100M. you need something to wake up to, some purpose, some sense of fulfillment.

How and what assets will get added into this fund? I can imagine if NIH funds a biotech or licenses a patent, the warrants/stock can be in this fund. What about SBR (BTC)? will that be in this fund?

My only hope is that I keep stacking the sats when the likes of Blake start buying at $1M. When CoBF as a whole becomes bullish, the high alpha in BTC will be over.

Interesting take

Here is one given by Saylor. The crazy thing is that no one can truly value Bitcoin. In a hyperbitcoinzation world, $ is meaningless. we can as well say 1 BTC = infinite $. hence folks are being polite to say 1 BTC = 1 BTC. It all depends on various factors and the pace at which it happens. 1) Todays gold has a lot of buyers who own it as inflation hedge. It is an inferior asset and the rate at which they move to BTC changes the trajectory 2) Today lots of folks own real estate as an inflation hedge. It is an inferior asset and the rate at which they move to BTC changes the trajectory 3) Today lots of folks own stocks (individual securities). Many lose value over time and one needs to be smart to shift the equity from one stock to another at the right time. Stocks are inferior assets and the rate at which they move to BTC changes the trajectory … so on and so forth So $ can be a transactional currency and BTC will be the permanent store of value. Stocks/bonds etc are be temporary/transient asset and value will eventually shift to BTC. Think of the current rich who sell their businesses for a billion $ and buy couple of Picassos to store $100-300M of value. BTCs of the future will be the Picassos for the masses

No one in the world understands inflation better than Buffett. The only way to beat inflation is to short cash (sell debt) and/or own assets that have real return. He has done it extremely well. Float is a debt. Buffett may not and need not own BTC. It is only a matter of time before BTC seeps into the corporate balance sheet. After Buffetts time, the CEO of BRK will be owning some. It is inevitable. The hardest and most embraced asset wins in the end. At 2T, we have gone past ponzi/bubble talks. The meme are just a distraction. It may even help get more people to BTC as a gateway drug.

Kudos for writing one of the best comment on this thread!

If you compare BRK and QQQ since Jan 2000, Buffett outperforms. So timing matters. I can confidently say that in the next 25 years, QQQ will outperform BRK.

AMP - buyback coupled with revenue growth. Wonderful combination.