rkbabang

If he's just some disgruntled "customer", then the chances that he didn't tell someone he was going to do this beforehand or tell someone that he did it afterwards is slim to none. The chances that people he's told don't drop a dime on him or tell 3rd parties who told 4th parties, etc, who will drop a dime on him is slim to none. These people always talk too much and get themselves caught. They'll have him within a week. They might already have an idea who he is.

I guess the market likes it, or at the very least doesn’t hate it.

Just wondering. Serious question. Is it normal for a company's stock to be in the green the day its CEO is gunned down in cold blood on the street?

True, but unlike homes (or chronic medical care), the average person can afford a cheap car without a loan. If you have a loan to buy a house or car your lender will require you carry insurance. Uninsured medical care can easily bankrupt the average person.

Yeah, the weapon setup isn't unheard of (both legal and illegal), but just how calm and cool he was. This guy didn't look angry or nervous, he was cold. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think most people could just execute someone like that without a single shake of the hand.

One correction. There is one state where a normal person can drive a car without car insurance.

This looks more pro hit than disgruntled customer to me. 1. the lack of hesitation. 2. The suppressor and low pressure subsonic ammo. Not even enough pressure to cycle the firearm. He shoots, racks slide, shoots again, racks slide again, all without confusion due to lack of cycling which probably means this was an intentional weapon/ammo choice and he knew he would have to rack the slide between shots. This isn't a setup your average gun owner has. You need to hold an FFL (Federal Firearms License) to buy a suppressor and buy a $200 tax stamp for each one.

This is just stocks. My Bitcoin position is a little more than 25% larger than my MSTR position. MSTR 30.61% JOE 12.56% FRFHF 6.37% PBR.A 4.15% TRRSF 3.40% WMB 3.25% ISRG 2.83% AMZN 2.79% NTDOY 2.63% SRUUF 2.60% NVEC 2.47% MSGE 2.35% SEVN 2.18% BN 1.86% ADI 1.66% AIV 1.51% BAM 1.43% MELI 1.33% FRPH 1.27% EBAY 1.26% GENGF 1.19% BRK.B 1.17% AAPL 1.08% CPNG 1.03% WEN 0.83% FI 0.78% 18 OTHERS 3.74%

No one should have to steal or commit crimes against innocent people to buy drugs. You should be able to buy heroin or Coke by the pound at Walmart and let the problem take care of itself. If you want to prohibit something, maybe prohibit the police or ambulances from carrying Narcan in the vehicles with them.

OK, well, next time tell me how you really feel. Maybe it's not quite safe to give AI the nuclear codes yet.

I don't know what the top will be this cycle, $150K - $500K would be my guess, but that's a big range. I don't plan to trim BTC. I do plan to trim MSTR when I think we are at or close to the top. Maybe sell half which will be many times my cost basis by then. My current plan is to hold an accumulate Bitcoin through the next 3-4 cycles at least. 16 years from now I'll be in my late 60s and will hopefully not even need my bitcoin, but it will be there if I need it.

^^^

I still hold some from back in 2015 when I was playing with it and found it interesting. I sold about half of it in 2021 (along with some Bitcoin, to pay off 2 mortgages I had, then sold about half of what was left earlier this year to buy more Bitcoin. What I have left is still significant, but I've come to agree with @wachtwoord about it. It may have some value, it may be useful for something, but it isn't a store of value, it isn't money, it isn't secure, limited, decentralized, or immutable (and now even less so that it is proof of stake). I regret not selling all of it in 2021 so that I wouldn't have to have sold any Bitcoin at all. Also I regret not selling all what I had left earlier this year to convert it to Bitcoin. My dumb thinking was that I didn't want to have all of those capital gains in one year, so I'll probably sell it in 2025. That said, I bought my ETH at $8, sold half in 2021 for $4050. A gain of 506X. That's the best trade I've ever made.

I wouldn’t expect Bitcoin to do quite as well in the next 15 years as it did in the last 15. Bitcoin was basically worthless 15 years ago in 2009. It traded in 2010, but never hit $1. Bitcoin first hit $1 in early 2011, so it’s up 90,000X in a little less than 14 years. I wouldn’t expect it to go up 90,000X from here in the next 15 years. Maybe 25X-1000X if I had to give an 80% confident range.

They are very unlikely, but not impossible. Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, is open source, and is now worth $1.7T Anyone can examine the code and try to find a bug. That is a huge pot for a potential hacker just sitting there for the taking. Yet no one has hacked it yet by finding some critical flaw. That is a good indication that it is unlikely to happen.

And since you said risks in the next 5-10 years: I'll add: Even though Bitcoin maxis are eventually correct, you buy at a cycle high and it takes years before you return to break even. Think of people who bought at almost $20K seeing it go down to $4K or people who bought at $60k watching it fall to $15K. There are definitely short term risks in an asset this volatile.

Some reasons: There is a flaw in the encryption that no one has noticed yet and a hacker discovers this and starts spending Bitcoin that aren't his. Panic ensues and Bitcoin goes to $0 pretty quickly. Quantum computing happens before the Bitcoin code upgrades to use fully quantum resistant encryption. Panic ensues... see above. Another type of crypto currency is so much better than Bitcoin somehow in some way that Bitcoin can not be forked to adopt the new features that everyone just switches to that instead. We are wrong and no one wants a hard asset which can't be inflated away. People really do prefer government money. Long term, there isn't much use for the most secure network ever created.

Yes, if anything this cycle seems a little more bullish. We had it re-touch its all time high before the halving earlier in the year. And it is seems to be rallying a little early right now.

I expect it will be decades off, not just years. If I had to guess 30-60 years. You are not going to replace the measure of value in society over night. We are so early that we are still at the stage where people are measuring the value of BTC in their local currencies rather than the other way around. When people start saying that the USD is worth X sats and the CAD is worth Y sats and the Pound is worth Z sats, you will know that we are over the hump. It will be a roller-coaster ride in the interim, but the general direction over any long window of time (say any 4 year window) will be up. Which is exactly what has happened so far. I say 4 years, because the halving cycle gives it this built in 4 year cycle where the inflows from newly mined coins gets cut in half.

Valuing it is extremely difficult. It's like someone telling you in 2004 that you could invest privately in Facebook and it might have 3 billion active users someday and make a lot of money from monetizing its users. 1) Would you even believe that? 2) How could you value it? How could you know exactly what a user would be worth to FB in 20 years? But you would know that the company would likely be worth a lot if that were to happen.

Also 3 books I'd recommend highly. 1) "The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking", by Saifedean Ammous 2) "Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better" by Lyn Alden 3) "Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin" by Jason Lowery The first 2 are similar, but make different arguments and go over the history slightly differently. I found I derived a lot value from reading both of them. But certainly read at least one of them. Softwar is a little far out there and I'm still not sold on it and not completely sure what to think of it, but he goes over non-monetary uses for the Bitcoin blockchain claiming the cryptocurrency/hard asset way is just one way of looking at it and not even the most important way. He says Bitcoin is better referred to as Bitpower and gives a Second Amendment argument for the right of Americans to own, or should I say keep and bear, bitcoin. I found it interesting that money isn't the only application for the hardest asset and the most secure network ever conceived by humanity. Bitcoin, its blockchain, and its network aren't just money or just an asset or just a way of waging war, it is something completely new and different. A completely new technology that is in a category of its own.

Good interview with Tad Smith. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z3bxzu_5E8&ab_channel=TimKotzman Here's a good short clip from it:

It's looking like I'll be buying more MSGE for $40 this Friday. I had been writing MSGE puts lately and I wrote some $40 Nov 15 puts a few weeks ago and got $1.04 for them. So I'll be paying $38.96 for my shares. Not too bad. Especially because I've been selling puts for a few months which didn't get exercised.

You forgot the printing press and sliced bread, but yeah.