Jurgis

Shouldn't that be the way to deal with all countries USA goes to war with? ::) Sorry to say, this is yet another simple Internetz solution that does not work. (Yeah, Internetz is famouz for simple solutions that don't work). Big issues with these kind of approaches are: 1. The target country will try to shoot down any planes sending the balloons. If you respond by hitting their defense systems, you have war anyway. 2. The target country will send military/police to get your propaganda donations. 3. The target country's populace is unlikely to revolt even if military/police gets your propaganda donations. 4. Even if populace will revolt, the likely answer is that the target country will hit its populace with its military. Or they will nuke their neighbors. Or they will nuke US. There are no simple solutions. One possibility is to get China realize that supersanctions and regime change under their supervision is better for them than having nuclear neighbor with a dictator. Not an easy task and does not guarantee 100% success anyway. For Internetz simple-solution-solvers: bonus problem: apply this solution to Russia. 8) This message may self destruct in ...

I just realized that this idea has a precedent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatons_to_Megawatts_Program 8) Let's hope it all ends well.

I'm a bit confused. I don't think I paid 3% of a house as a buyer. I never paid any fees for mortgage or closing... simply got no points, no fees mortgage. It may have been a bit higher rate, but since I refi'd at least 3 times per house, it was well worth having a bit higher rate but then refi with no points no fees again. Yes, you do pay something like 5% real estate agent fees as a seller, which is split among seller's agent and buyer's agent. You can save by not having an agent but it has its own issues. If you have no agent as buyer, it doesn't give you any benefit usually. Anyway, just my experience, your's might be different.

IMO Petec has a pretty good handle into possible Fairfax performance.

I sold GILD last time when they were "dumb and did a deal". That cost me a 5 bagger. I guess it was also beyond my depth. 8)

I'll mostly +1 globalfinancepartners. Go classic 60/40 or even 50/50, total US market + some intl on stock side, some good bond fund on fixed income and forget all the fancy options/vol/convexity/blahblah. And yeah, even at these yields, good bond fund will outperform cash.

Positive article on the Boring Company and NY-DC tunnel tweet that was made fun of on the Internetz: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/elon-musk-s-tunnel-plan-isn-t-as-crazy-as-spacex-or-tesla

Why are you buying shares in a company in terrible industry heading towards cyclical bottom? Just kidding and teasing oddball. 8)

Not the most crappy. You forgot boats. 8)

Yeah, that's the picture I got too. Understood. I think these make most sense if you can sell back to grid at markup, which is only available in some states (and probably not for long).

Oddball, do you guys have SolarCity or some other "install their panels for cheaper electricity but don't pay upfront" option in your area? Would that work for you? I haven't looked at residential solar much, since I don't like panels on the roof. I think Tesla tiles on the roof are gonna be gamechanger if/when I get to roof replacement. Unfortunately, I changed the roof about 9 years ago, so it's gonna be long time.

We buy some kind of no-name detergent that costs 50% of what Tide costs and washes as well as Tide from what I see. But clearly a lot of people believe in what rb wrote and (continue to) buy Tide. 8)

Right. Similar issue with working with friends and family on startup. For some people it works great. For others... not so much. You have to be pretty clear of how that's likely to work with your friend/family. Someone in friend's (wink wink) family is putting a lot of work on a startup run by another member of the family. For free. As in "they won't get anything for their work". And it's fine (so far). OTOH I'm probably a capitalist asshole and wouldn't be able to give tons of my work free to someone who will reap the benefit. Even if they were in family. So... 8)

The positive side of crowdfunding is that you insta get customers. The negative side is that your product can be insta China-stolen if there's interest/traction. And of course it doesn't resolve the question of splitting the company between people involved. 8)

I think valuing the company without sales, which becomes really valuing the sweat equity is hard. There might be startup people who can suggest you some insights how to do it. But it might become tension between you and the inventor. Because who's to decide whether you get 10% or 5% or 25%? I guess family and friends can look at it as a game and put in $X at valuation Y. But if you looked at it dispassionately and not as a family game/fun, would you really value the company at Y and would you put $X to get X/Y fraction of the company? Or would you work as an advisor/director for some fraction x/Y of the company?

My love has been fairly consistent, actually. Possibly too consistent. Yes, part of the cycle is that lovers (predominantly) post. Then haters predominantly post. Repeat. The other part of the cycle are company specific events (or non-events). 8)

I just love how this board goes through love hate cycles of companies. Love cycle on for Fairfax. For now. 8)

I thought there was a newer thread about this... anyway, I thought this article fits the topic although it shows a different angle on how a player could win against casinos: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-man-who-broke-atlantic-city/308900/

All of them sound high. But if you really trust them and think they are going to produce great results, then maybe. 8) There may be people to whom I would pay such fees. Very likely these people would not need/want my money.

'Go not to the elves Howard Marks for counsel, for he will say both no and yes.' 8) Am I the only one who thinks that dissing FAANG and not even mentioning that Apple was cheap enough for Buffett to buy makes the argument rather superficial... Oh right Howard says he does not diss FAANG... though he does... but not in bold ... so it does not count? ::)

Drop the mic. Maybe I'm the only one who agrees with Vampire Squid. 8) Anyway, assuming total market returns going forward to be 2-6% (haha let me be more conservative than GS/VS) and potential drawdown 20-40% in the meantime (but with 40% being relatively low prob), what do you guys propose to do with your portfolios? Some ideas: 1. The easy alternative: huge percentage into BRK and go to the beach. Gives possibly ~8-10% return with possibly similar drawdown as the market (don't expect Buffett to buyback support the price on large market drop). Still not a bad choice perhaps. 2. The cash alternative: huge percentage in cash, rest in whatever. Even if the rest outperforms market X0%, you still are likely to get market returns due to cash drag. But lower drawdown. And if-nimble, you might get market beating return by buying during the drop (if...). 3. The "great cheap your-special-insight investments" alternative: pick the stocks, outperform the market, ... , profit!!! Clearly gives outsized return (or at least that's what investor expects). May give lower drawdown, may give higher drawdown than the market. Since market is "expensive", likely the "special-insight" investments are not so cheap either. Or they have warts. Or both. At least that's what I see both in my portfolio and in the ideas other people suggest. So maybe outperform the market, maybe not. Maybe lower drawdown, maybe not. 4. All kind of macro, long-short, etc: not my pony, no comments. Edit: 5. Non-US investments. Some markets may be cheaper. International has underperformed for years (but not this year AFAIK). Go there, beat US. I'm in the mix of 1-3 and a bit of 5. Some BRK (but possibly not much enough). Some cash (but not that much). Some (a lot) of investments that I won't sell (even though they are not so cheap). Some international investments, but not really so cheap either. Or should I start a different thread about this?

When Buffett is buying Apple that's a sign ...

Great book. Lots of fun and some good tidbits to think about.

Wow, look at that bubble in June 2009!

Drop the mic.