Jurgis

:'(

That's why you should buy all cryptokitties instead. Then you have the greatest cryptop.... kitty harem in the world! 8)

Why world gdp? I'm sure the interstellar object that just visited us was here to buy bitcoin for Vegans. After all there's only 21mln bitcoins available IN THE WHOLE GALAXY (actually in the whole UNIVERSE!)! Buy them before aliens show up and slurp up all the liquidity!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/bitcoin-points-way-to-massive-change-for-commodity-businesses I have couple questions for blockchain/crypto experts: 1. When these companies are talking about using blockchain for trading physical commodities or for land register, what underlying blockchain are they planning to use? I would assume they are not building this on top of Bitcoin blockchain, are they? Are they using blockchain of one of the public cryptos or deploying their own? 2. Assuming they are using their own blockchain, how is security achieved? I doubt that proof-of-work security works for small/private crypto setups. Are then they using something else? Just relying on single trusted authority (but then why use blockchain)? 3. Why not use DBs? For simplicity, let's assume transaction write-once journaling DB which is pretty much the same as blockchain except not distributed. Especially in the case of crop land registry in Ukraine, I don't see how blockchain can prevent fraud any more than such DB. What are scenarios where blockchain prevents fraud and centralized DB doesn't? Corrupt bureaucrat transferring your land to someone else by changing DB without your knowledge? How would they do that if DB required your authorization/code/password? Hacking? Why hacking DB would be easier than hacking blockchain (also see question2 regarding how the heck you achieve blockchain security on own blockchain)? Edit: This https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21677228-technology-behind-bitcoin-lets-people-who-do-not-know-or-trust-each-other-build-dependable and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain answer most of the questions above (if you read through and think a bit...coin ;D)

Have you read about Chinese Citizen Score: https://www.computerworld.com/article/2990203/security/aclu-orwellian-citizen-score-chinas-credit-score-system-is-a-warning-for-americans.html BTW, it is presumably used even for dating sites. "Bad citizen! No dates for you!" :-X

LOL. You haven't seen Landover Baptist before? 8) No. Is this real? After seeing that thread on their board, I didn't care to learn more about their god. No, this is not real. LMGTFY: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landover_Baptist_Church Bible quotes there might be mostly real, but you should check your bible first. 8)

LOL. You haven't seen Landover Baptist before? 8)

The flipside argument is that when billions of $ are on the line, nothing is off limits when it comes to personal lives. Sounds like a faustian bargain, if there ever was one. I said should as I'd hope people have some personal ethics in these sorts of things. Personal ethics goes out of the window way below $ billions... :-\

I have been thinking a bit about your stance on this, Jurgis. I have seen on your blog that you have a large chunk of your capital allocated to Berkshire, Fairfax & Markel. Do you mind sharing the approximate weightings for you within those three? PS: I read your blog monthly. Always interesting to read what you have been up to last month, and your short comments about your thinking related to that. I don't mind to disclose, but I have to admit that my percentage allocations are really not indicative of anything. I don't sell on overvaluation or to switch to better investment; I also sometimes buy too slowly or not at all or not the best pick. Allocations are BRK ~= Fairfax. MKL ~= 1/4 of that. Considering that I bought MKL during their Alterra purchase slump, I would have done much better by allocating more to MKL. But then we also had a topic on CoBF whether FFH or MKL will get to $1K price first. We know the outcome now. ;) BTW, you're the only person reading my blog. Thanks for being valued member of the audience.

This is really funny. ;D Opens possibilities. Can I sell my cats into sex trade? 8) Will I get enough money to finance cryptokitty purchases? Since cryptokitties will go ballistic (I checked, you can shoot them from cannon or launch them in Space X), I'll make 900000% in one year. Then I can buy back my real kitties from slave trade. Sounds like a plan!!! 8)

You can always convert A to B. And without taxable event I think, but I am not an accountant/etc.

Self driving cars are awesome. But if that's "not-real-life" for you yet, then check out the collision avoidance systems that are already integrated into most of 2017-18 models ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collision_avoidance_system ).

Cryptokitties.

I'd be interested too, though I tend to agree that 10-11% is about the most I'd expect for the CAGR of IV (and BV other than the one-off boost from the tax bill). For me, that's sufficient long term return with high certainty, and the limited downside and the potential for decent compounding are the reasons I felt it was better than cash for the long term and provided essentially similar 'dry powder' for any huge bargain in the short term. Even the last 14.25 years, with a deep recession and plenty of opportunism and big acquisitions has seen only 10.36% CAGR in Book Value (prior to any tax boost) but in an environment of low interest rates and low price inflation. I'm not complaining though - 10.36% over 14.25 years is 4.07x growth in total, which is very respectable, and repeated for another 14.25 years would exceed a 16-fold growth over 28.5 years. Dynamic already covered a lot of bases. Why would future returns from current P/B be higher than historical 10.X%? I'll add couple more headwinds and considerations - Size. It's getting more and more difficult to grow as the size increases. - Competitiveness. Both Warren and Charlie are continuously talking about moat erosion and competitiveness across the the board (AXP, COST, etc.). I'll add even KO and KHC to this. - Huge cash pile that is difficult to invest at great returns. (Contra argument: market will crash and then they will invest. Contra contra argument: see that 10.X% return even with crash in between). - Soft insurance and reinsurance markets that may not change - Elevated security prices of everything including stocks in BRK portfolio. (Contra argument: banks and AAPL may not be very expensive and may return more than 10% annualized for some time). - Even at the great recession Buffett got BRK-only prefs at ~9% coupon. Considering that a once-a-huge-crisis opportunity, why and how future opportunities be better than that (so you could get to 10+% return)? (Contra argument: float is like leverage so 9% on that is levered return for the company.)

I have no opinion about BRK price in next 6 months. Best 8)

I'm pretty sure Gates foundation is not set up as perpetual foundation and/or Buffett's donation is not intended as perpetual contribution. Pretty sure there are conditions that the money to be used within certain timeframe, so yes, they have to sell the shares. I don't remember the source, so you might have to hunt for it if you want confirmation. (Or maybe someone on CoBF will confirm or contradict the above).

Can I get an option "I don't care"? As I have said before, I am selling my BRK position the moment Warren is out (assuming stock does not crater to unreasonable discount). He is not replaceable. Splitting or not splitting won't make much difference likely. Although it's possible that holders after Warren's exit will still get OKish return.

I doubt that BRK return will be more than 10% annual for next 10 years. JMO though.

I need that macro. 8)

Cryptokitties iz da safist store ov mieuw: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/meet-cryptokitties-the-new-digital-beanie-babies-selling-for-100k.html All your bitcoinz are belong to catz! 8)

This is a Biblical choice... 8) Oh, Jain, not Cain...

If I knew that RE is going compound at 12% going forward 5-10 years, I'd buy tons of it. I don't think there are (m)any opportunities in current market that offer 12% going forward. (IMO neither BRK nor FFH do; 12% is reachable for both just far from certain). I doubt that RE (or AXS) can do 12% going forward either. I think that (re)insurance is still soft and gonna remain soft. Plus fixed income returns are crappy.

Yes, I take Magnesium Citrate too. More for blood pressure normalization though. I have allergies mostly not up to asthma level though. I don't think I saw any change/improvement with Vit D/Magnesium. Edit/note: I possibly take lower doses than other people take, so ./shrug.

I am taking Vitamin D ~7000 a week (5K some brand from Amazon + 2K Trader Joe's brand). I have a friend (*wink wink*) who had depression symptoms and taking Vitamin D got rid of them totally. So, don't self-diagnose since depression is serious thing, but also possibly take Vitamin D, especially if blood tests show deficiency. One possible negative side effect: if you are prone to kidney stones, excessive Vitamin D may have negative effect ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidney_stone_disease ). I used to take 10K a week, reduced to 7K.

Looks like a good book, Gio.