Parsad

Combination of Fed buying assets across the board and Treasury issuing large amounts of debt at record low rates. I remember Sam Mitchell saying in 2008, "You cannot ignore the macro when the macro becomes obvious!" I'm not one to follow macro, but this is really starting to hit me in the face. I see increasing earning power and relatively low rates for now, but I cannot see low corporate tax rates and net profit margins remaining as desirable as they are today. Something has to give. Cheers!

The other part of this is to get market cap versus GDP down to historical levels means either or both of these: - A drop of up to 50% in market capitalization or an increase of GDP by at least 50%. I don't see the latter happening...4% annualized over five years means an increase of 22%...over ten years and you are getting to 50%. If GDP can get to $28-30M or so in five years, you would still see markets drop about 40% to get to historical levels. Cheers!

I would agree with you, but it is quite the coincidence that Fed assets matches the overvaluation/distortion exactly. If asset values rose with an increase in Fed assets, an unwinding will do what? The question is can they control the unwinding and interest rates in such a way as to make it painless or relatively painless. I find that hard to believe. Cheers!

For our more astute board members: What is causing such distortions in this accurate historical ratio that could justify where it is today? Either we are in for one hell of a correction or markets are broken. Cheers!

She's terrific and a talented actress as well! I would recommend anything with Karen O and Danger Mouse as well. Arguably one of the great front women of all time...formerly of the Yeah Yeah Yeahs. Cheers! https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=karen+o+and+danger+mouse

Happy 2022 to you all! May it be a healthy and prosperous year. RIP Betty White! Cheers!

Replacement costs are also rising as material, labour, and commodity prices are up. I would imagine insurance premiums will continue rising into 2023 and possibly 2024 for most lines of insurance other than specialty. Cheers!

It's always a "free-market" issue when it involves politicians. If you become a Congressman, Senator or President, or MP, Senator or Prime Minister, you should not be able to invest in anything other than fixed income instruments and/or subjected to strict trading limitations, or you have to put your assets in a blind trust. That should be the deal for getting a platinum pension plan, a position of power, and eventual power private sector positions. Cheers!

Munger...both Lee Kuan Yew or the CCP. Cheers!

Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Thanks for all your contributions through the year. This site doesn't work without all of your input. Cheers!

While Berkshire owns several high capex businesses, remember that they also own huge stakes in businesses that benefit from inflation or can price their products with inflation...think Apple, Coca-Cola, See's, retail businesses, etc. Unlike many other companies, Berkshire's high capex businesses are 1st or 2nd generally in their respective lines of business...that provides some ability to absorb cost and pass it on. Also, insurance is a business that can price policies with inflationary pressure and insurance is by far Berkshire's largest business and always will be. Cheers!

$900M capital raise from partial sale of ORH is complete: https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Fairfax-Announces-Successful-Completion-of--CPPIB-and-OMERS-Investment-in-9.99-of-Odyssey-Group/default.aspx Let's see how many shares are tendered in the buyback over the next few weeks. Cheers!

Insured losses are around $450M, but the gross losses will be far, far higher. Apparently, much of the flood plain region was not insurable privately, so much of the losses from my original eyeball estimate will have to be covered by the provincial government. Good for private insurers like Fairfax, but a huge burden on the public government and taxpayers. Cheers!

Not directly, but funded or seeded many that did. Apparently also launched his fund business with money from mobsters. Cheers! https://www.deepcapture.com/2008/03/michael-steinhardt-when-the-bad-guys-came-to-town/

There was some criticism of Prem's previous comments about Henry Singleton and Teledyne, but everything we are watching indicates that not only is Prem buying back a ton of Fairfax shares through course issuer bids and total return swaps, but Fairfax positions are also buying back massive amounts of their own stock. Should bode well for both Fairfax and their holdings! Cheers!

Resolute is buying back $100M in shares on top of the 15% they've retired over the last year. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resolute-announces-share-repurchase-program-220000977.html

RBC and TD - personal accounts. Scotia is CMC's corporate account broker. UBS is our U.S. GP and U.S. fund's broker. So not as much money as you might think! Cheers!

Yup, RBC, TD, Scotia and UBS. Cheers!

Biggest mistakes were selling when I thought the stock was at intrinsic value. I bought a bunch of Overstock.com LEAPs in March of 2020 when the stock was around $7.50...both in my fund and my personal accounts. I also bought quite a few shares at $2.99 in my personal accounts. I thought intrinsic value was around $25-$35, so I sold half of the LEAPs in my fund when the stock was between $25-30...I made 8-10 times my money. I also sold the shares in my personal accounts through the same range, but was smart enough to sell the remaining LEAPs when the stock was at $40-45. Did very well really! But if I had held the LEAPs and stock for a few months longer, I would have made 30-40 times my money! A difference of several hundred thousand dollars in my personal accounts and about $3M in my fund! Cheers!

Steinhardt gets lifetime ban from buying antiquities...unfortunately avoids jail time! Cheers! https://news.yahoo.com/hedge-fund-founder-steinhardt-return-185644763.html

James Simon's family office invests in multiple AI businesses: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/family-office-billionaire-renaissance-founder-125601904.html Cheers!

Has the fears of the past come home to roost? Is China's debt-fueled, real estate bubble about to get taken down? China has managed to keep things afloat so far, but watching this video and reading the stuff I've read regarding how overbuilt China is...is it a global calamity about to show its fangs! Cheers! https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chinas-real-estate-crisis-indebted-151812957.html

AI assists in the creation of cellular, replicating xenobots. Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/29/americas/xenobots-self-replicating-robots-scn/index.html

I thought I would start this thread on the field of AI which is garnering more and more investment, and is starting to affect our day to day lives. The area will be greatly beneficial to humanity, but carries certain risks, and could be extremely disruptive to many businesses. Feel free to post articles on here and carry on discussion regarding AI. Cheers!

Canadian insurers are going to take a big hit from this. It certainly is the worst natural disaster in British Columbia history, and I would imagine it ranks very high in terms of Canadian disasters. Just the Abbotsford area, which is where much of the flooding is happening in the Sumas plain, you are looking at well over $1B in losses...just property, infrastructure, etc. Add business losses, crop damage, livestock losses, impurity of water sources, etc...I would imagine the losses are approaching $2B over the next few years. Then add insurance losses in other areas like Merritt (much smaller) and other small towns, you are looking at another $1B-$1.5B. I would imagine total insurable losses in all forms...looking at $3.5-$5B! Some of those losses like infrastructure, water impurity, etc will be covered by different levels of government. But I see at least $2.5-$3.5B of damages hitting insurers directly through present loss claims and future total loss claims. In the short-term the supply chain issues have been exacerbated because the primary highway across Canada has been cut-off in Abbotsford. It should be running again in the next week or so. There have been signs of milk, egg, dairy, poultry, beef shortages in grocery stores across BC as the Sumas plain region is home to significant agriculture for BC consumers. People aren't starving or anything, but they are restricting the amount on each purchase in some locations...such is 2 containers of milk, 2 cartons of eggs, etc. per puchase. The Trans-Canada pipeline was also shut, so there is fuel rationing of 30L per purchase occurring throughout BC until December 14th. They expect the pipeline to be running again within a week or so. Cheers!