Parsad

For you Monday morning quarterbacks...he's killing it at Wintaai and Stonetrust as well...so far a 72% CR for 2021...destroying it both on the insurance side and investment side. He's finally running the type of vehicle that allows him to use all of his talent...no limits on concentration, his insurance expertise and float leverage. And for those that complain about Fairfax's complexity...Francis is keeping it simple at Stonetrust...more like Markel. Cheers! Wintaai Financial Highlight (June 2021).pdf

Sorry to disappoint, but Vancouver's strip club scene has essentially collapsed. We used to have a dozen or so strip clubs...now we're down to about four. Real estate prices on the other hand have increased faster than anywhere other than perhaps Sydney and San Francisco. Cheers!

Cathy Woods has Tesla pegged at $3000 a share. May happen, but for some reason I have Woods pegged as this era's Abby Joseph Cohen...perennial bull of the 90's, who essentially disappeared for a decade when the tech wreck happened. Reminded also of CIBC analyst Jeff Rubin's call of $200 a barrel oil back in 2007 too! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-worth-3000-ark-invests-cathie-wood-201139618.html

That's what worries me! I told her to just take a small piece of her portfolio (preferably a non-taxable account) and trade within it. We'll see what she decides to do. Cheers!

True, so true! Hey, I avoided buying a car last year and this year, as I felt it would be in bad taste with the pandemic. On another note, nobody questions Buffett's or Prem's choice to use private jets...comfort, convenience, security, efficiency. It's no different when multi-millionaires think the same way about their cars. I drive to the office three-four days a week, and unfortunately the office is a good 50 minutes (non-rush hour) from my home each way. If I can get there safely, in comfort, then I'm ok with spending money on a 2-3 year old luxury car/suv. Now spending $15K for a watch or $2K for a bottle of wine...yeah, those are lifestyle choices I would have to question and can't get behind. Unless they are collectors...then that is a different ball of wax. A Timex and two-buck chuck is fine for me! Cheers!

Yes, she does! I just hope she doesn't blow it all again. She seems quite content to sell only as much AAPL as she needs for retirement to minimize taxes. But the other side of her wants to get to $5M as soon as possible. I told her just holding on to her AAPL and MSFT will get her to $5M faster than she could probably do it, and she would be taking little risk. But when she gets in these trading moods...I really hope she doesn't blow it! The irony is she barely spends $30-40K a year...her house is paid off...$4M or $5M...makes no difference based on her expenses. Cheers!

The Outback and Forester are great...but we don't have alot of dealer/service support in Vancouver for the brand. Don't know enough about the Q8, but my brother bought a Q7 which is very nice for the family. Cheers!

The 2022 CRV looks amazing! The outside and inside design looks more akin to their sister-brand Acura. The sheet metal looks alot like a RDX. Cheers!

Americans already knew they have to save more...looks like they are going to have to increase the amount they save if they want to retire with some dignity! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/31/politics/social-security-medicare-report/index.html

Ha! I like mini vans too...great for long trips. But my family will never sit in one if I got one! Cheers!

All of the things you pointed out are what makes companies like Fairfax terrific cyclical investments where you can take advantage of deep discounts by Mr. Market. This used to happen all the time when Patrick Byrne was CEO of Overstock.com. I probably will never get the opportunity to make money on Overstock.com with the same discounts that I used to get now that Jonathan Johnston is running it. Cheers!

This is a true story! I have a friend, who is frugal and a good saver, but who 21 years ago blew her whole RRSP (same as a 401K) on Nortel and other high flying tech stocks...about $100K. Lost the whole thing in less than 8 months. I told her about Berkshire Hathaway, but she didn't listen and was a hardcore CNBC fan. Fast forward 14 years, her sister, an entrepreneur, has been managing her money since she lost her RRSP investments. After all this time, her sister looked after her money, creating a diversified portfolio of quality stocks, and beat the market. My friend, feeling confident in her abilities again after watching years of CNBC and Jim Cramer, takes back control of her portfolio...about $400K at this point. She sells everything and puts nearly all of it in AAPL stock...in her RRSP, TFSA (same as an IRA), personal brokerage accounts...80% AAPL and 20% MSFT. Why? Because she heard about it on CNBC. Today, she has a net worth of about $4M! Is she a good investor? Is she a better investor than Warren Buffett, because she just destroyed his numbers? Is she a better investor than almost anyone on this message board? By your standards, the answer would be yes! Cheers!

Sure a few investors on here essentially picked the bottom of the Covid low on Fairfax and have experienced a nice bounce in the share price until now however gains of similar magnitude could have been achieved by investing in any number of other stocks and in fact the return from several of those other stocks would have resulted in greater returns than from Fairfax. I can't speak for others, but one is not connected to the other. I bought some Fairfax during the lows of March/April 2020, but I loaded up on as much Macy's, Overstock.com, Biglari Holdings, Shake Shack, Cheesecake Factory, Bank of America, Atlas Co and Wells Fargo. But most of those stocks rebounded 100% or more and became much closer to intrinsic value. As I sold many of them, there were limited opportunities to put capital to work, even now...Fairfax is discounted far more to intrinsic value than many opportunities other than a handful of ideas in the recovering retail/travel/infrastructure sectors...so it has become a very large holding. As TwoCities stated...what has changed at Fairfax negatively between mid-2019 and mid-2021? The only obvious difference is interest rates. Insurance and investments are doing better than 2019...they've streamlined and simplified more of the businesses...they've monetized several others...many of their core holdings have increased in market value since then...book value per share is increasing very well. So why would it be so unimaginable that markets would revalue Fairfax back to 1.1-1.2 times book...certainly not unfathomable, nor unrealistic. Cheers!

Interview with John Paulson on gold, crypto, investing. Cheers! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/is-bitcoin-a-good-investment-billionaire-paulson-says-crypto-worthless-bubble?utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&sref=acfjrZ8Z

No, not going to buy one...I can't justify the price...especially when the Bronco is essentially a Defender without the locking differential and nice interior at half the price. I had an X1 previously, and I've got a 320i right now...most likely going to be an X3. I love the braking, handling and quality of BMW...as well as their service department. Unless I can find something clearly superior, I'll stick to tried and true. I just need something more roomy again, as my back is acting up as I get older...I'd prefer to now start getting into cars bum first, rather than legs first...the 320i is quite low, as was my Mini Cooper. Even the X1 rides lower than an X3 and I plan on going on more road trips...so we need more room in the back seats while maintaining luggage space. Cheers!

Nobody here is buying Tesla's Cybertruck? I've got a friend who put a deposit down on one. Either this is going to be amazing or this era's AMC Gremlin! Cheers!

Flesh, I think we've been looking at exactly the same cars. I've got the X3 as first in line, but I also like the Telluride. Tiguan is a bit smaller than those two, so I don't think it will work out. Looked at the Velar and Defender, but couldn't justify the price tag compared to the X3 and Telluride. I really kind of like the Bronco and price, but the roof issues worries me a bit. Also thought about a Wrangler...Audi Q5...really liked the Macan, but the rear seats were too small...and even a Volvo XC60, but didn't like the interior. Also, prefer to buy 2-3 years old with less than 40K km...sometimes you get lucky and the previous owner has bought the extended warranty you get free. I might wait until 2022 as there are a bunch of new SUV's coming out, plus the Telluride will be nearly 2-3 years old. Also don't like how used car prices have risen recently alongside new car prices. Cheers!

Losses from Katrina were around $125B...Ida looks to be stronger than Katrina! Berkshire usually accounts for 5-8% of such losses...Fairfax usually gets hit with 0.5-1% of such losses. I wonder if the area/levies have been reinforced to withstand Category 4 hurricanes better after the Katrina experience...we'll soon find out! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/28/weather/hurricane-ida-saturday/index.html

Again, that's the whole point of this exercise (post) as you've wildly generalized about how many blunders have occurred by Fairfax. Have mistakes happened...yes. Have they hurt results over the last decade...yes. Does that equate to a poor management team and poor results going forward? I think the masses are wrong here. Cheers!

Yes, finally someone who put together a list! Of those, of any significant size and scale...BB, Recipe, Farmer's Edge, Fairfax Africa, Canwest Global Of those that have/will turn into winners...Resolute, Eurobank, Torstar. Of those that were macro bets...whether right or wrong...Deflation hedges, shorts. So of the tens of billions they've invested...these are their mistakes...about $2.5B...certainly significant, and not Buffett or Munger-like, but certainly not the fuckups that you guys make them out to be. Probably the biggest mistake is really their errors of omission...not participating in one of the biggest bull markets...too much cash sitting on the sidelines. Cheers!

I'm neither apologizing for them, nor am I touting their investment prowess...via skill or luck. My point is that the biggest turds that you guys can think of is BB, Abitibi and Torstar...which whether you like it or not, has just made Paul and Jordan a ton of money. Regarding TIG...well there would be no Odyssey America Re without TIG Re. At this point, I think TIG Re has proven to be a valuable part of the Fairfax insurance group and provided commensurate returns that no one would have predicted when TIG was acquired. Lastly, on the topic of APR...it was not simply heaped on Atlas. They wanted it. It has the same leasing ability and capital requirements that shipping or fractional jet ownership has...and guess who gets to run it...the guy who built one of the best energy businesses in America, turned around a shipping business and restored a fractional jet business. To suggest it was forced on Sokol or Chen is just silly! Cheers!

Just look at the European yield curve and grasp what this means for insurers and premium pricing for the next 5-10 years: https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/euro_yield_curves You have negative yields until you get to the European 15-year bonds. Insurers will have to write really good business, cut expenses and raise rates, since yield is scarce. US insurers have a much more favorable yield curve. I expect European insurers to write better business than North American insurers going forward to survive and remain competitive. Cheers!

They've written at better than 100% over the last decade: Year RoNTA1 % Combined ratio % Attritional ratio % Investment return (net of fees) % 2020 (19.6) 112.6 52.6 1.0 2019 18.1 95.8 55.0 3.6 2018 (14.4) 103.3 57.2 (2.0) 2017 1.1 112.4 56.4 4.9 2016 11.8 96.4 55.5 2.6 2015 9.1 91.7 55.2 0.1 2014 20.7 89.5 51.0 2.9 2013 24.2 85.4 51.3 2.1 2012 18.7 93.2 51.8 2.9 2011 8.5 98.0 55.4 2.4 Note 1: Before FX and corporate activity costs In 2017, they were hit by: The net claims incurred by Brit from these events totalled US$250.0m (Hurricane Harvey: US$51.5m; Hurricane Irma: US$110.1m; Hurricane Maria: US$46.4m; Mexico earthquakes: US$6.8m; California wildfires: US$35.2m), or 16.2pps on the combined ratio (2016: US$68.4m/4.5pps). This was in line with our expectations given the nature and scale of the events and our market share. In 2020, it was Covid. I would imagine that with current premium growth and rates, they will once again be writing better than 100% for some time. Currently, they hit a 94.6% combined ratio in the 1st half of 2021. Covid would have eaten up some of the excess capital European insurers had and long-term interest rates are near negative in Europe...thus you have to write good business and premiums will go up for a while. I don't think investors understand what a significant impact to earnings the current insurance market will provide to Fairfax...on a global basis too! Even if they have very average investment returns, it will be more than made up for by their insurance profits. Can you imagine what happens if they can allocate capital to some decent bonds or equities?! Cheers!

I don't know...you tell me. That's why I'm asking. How big was the position...how much did they lose? So far the critics and even supporters have only come up with BB...and shorts. Cheers!

Short bets aren't investing...it's speculation. Missing out on a bull market isn't investing either...they've been sitting on billions and billions of cash and bonds, because they were making a macro bet that a financial crisis was a distinct possibility...be it in NA or China. But these were poor macro bets. I'm talking about actual investments made and their poor track record. So far, you guys have BB. What else? Are they bad at macro bets...yeah, possibly...hit the lights out with the tech bubble, CDS and housing crisis...but really screwed the pooch with shorts, S&P puts and sitting on too much in cash/bonds. I keep hearing how bad they are at investing...other than BB...what else? Even frickin' Crum & Forster turned out well! Torstar would have been a home run too, if they had not sold to Paul and Jordan. Commodity bets are all turning for them in a big way. My point is that the Fairfax team aren't bad investors...they are poor market timers! Cheers!