sleepydragon
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Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
sleepydragon replied to LongHaul's topic in General Discussion
Or you gonna be multibillionaire instantly (but then the divorce will suck). YOLO! 8) In 2008, I have seen people whose house was bought at 300k (bought decades ago), and took out a couple millions of home equity loans. A couple years later the house is foreclosured. Maybe that guy used that money to buy stock. I also had a ex-coworker who got a loan using his house and bought AIG in 2008 Nah, if it works out, your wife will think you're a genius. ;) -
I would also recommend totalwine.com They have HUGE stores and have almost any thing for a cheaper price. I rarely find a store that can beat their prices. They are the Amazon in selling alcohol. They are currently suing CT state for requiring a minimum price on wines.
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I like French wines. It’s the only wine that rarely gave me headache even if I drink too much. I think they have less sugar. My wife rarely drink but has very sensitive taste and she prefers French too.
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The Triple Jeopardy of a Chinese Math Prodigy
sleepydragon replied to hillfronter83's topic in General Discussion
I think in US it’s harder(better for employees) The new employer usually have lawyers and they will fight in the court while the guy is working for them. Also, in California you can’t enforce none-compete so people can go there work for a year and then get freed. This of course doesn’t apply to this case where this guy were stealing colleague’s code and computers. -
The Triple Jeopardy of a Chinese Math Prodigy
sleepydragon replied to hillfronter83's topic in General Discussion
I am willing to bet none of those “alpha signals” he stole are profitable this year, or even last year or the year before. Young guy thought he found gold but almost all “alphas”, except Buffett’s buy and hold value investing approach, have short half lives -
Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
sleepydragon replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I think he is talking about algos/quant who uses news and prices as signals to trade quickly -
Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
sleepydragon replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Could be I guess. We already know how many shares they repurchased up to October 25th. Meaningful repurchase activity beyond that depends on if the "ceiling" price on the repurchase plan is adjusted with the increase in last reported book value, or if it stays the same at roughly $208 per B-share. If it is based on a simple multiple of last reported book value, there is a possibility it could be as high as 218 currently - which would have allowed repurchases to continue. Still unlikely that repurchases are material relative to Berkshire's size but every bit counts, and we are at least moving in the right direction. I wonder if Warren still owns 1 million shares of JPM personally. I would assume yes. I think there is no compliance/legal problems if his personal trades are the same directions as the BRK trades. So if Buffett is buying JPM he will not be selling in his personal accounts. -
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I sure hope so! My four largest holdings are 1. BRKB 2. WFC 3. BAC 4. BK How funny. These are my top 4 holdings too, and at the same order. There only difference is these four are also my Only holdings. -
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
So WEB is going to own 10% of the entire banking industry in USA? Maybe FEDs shall invite him at their next meeting. Haha -
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
The big four banks are trading at depressed PE, buying backs stocks each year using 70-80+% of their profits. If it keeps going, they will be no shares left after a decade. -
Buffett alternative to Black Scholes model
sleepydragon replied to nickenumbers's topic in General Discussion
BSM relies on no arbitrage profit theories. The price of the options equal to cost of continually hedging the derivatives by chasing gamma( buy high sell low). It’s from the perspective of the market maker who sell the option. So it needs to know the volatility how frequently they need to adjust the hedge, and will only works for short term American options, but not suitable to long term European style options -
Used to work at Quantum, which produced disk drives, before they sold everything. I think it’s a tough business It used to have some moat, as it’s not easy to master the technology to have the disk head spin at 7200 rounds per second without crashing the head and still load the data efficiently. Now RAM is getting cheaper and cheaper and the intelligence are moving up to higher layers. And the companies doing the higher layer softwares are also very competitive. The technology change everyday.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I bet it’s BK. He has been buying in previous 13fs (I am biased because I have some BK) -
Sold my last bit of BAM and DVA, Use the proceeds to buy more BRK
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Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
sleepydragon replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
For all the stocks, except BRK, I wish for higher prices. Because I might sell next year. For BRK, everyday I hope it go down, because I always want to buy more when I have more money. Brk has become a savings vehicle for its shareholders -
Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
sleepydragon replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
On Friday, almost all the financials are down, and almost all the stocks in my portfolio/watch lists are down, Except BRK. So someone has to be buying. To move BRK like this, I think it needs at least $5B demand per week. -
More WFC
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I'd be curious to see how many more years it'll take before he admits that his strategy is totally flawed and he initially performed well only by luck. :) I don’t think his early performance was all luck, but maybe it played a role. I think he has changed, he doesn’t have the same drive or thoroughness or intellectual honesty any more that he used to have 15 years ago or so, when he got started. Check the ADV form. His job title is Chief Marketing officer.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
If they don't purchase it, it will not be for ROE reasons. $20 million is a drop in the bucket, and the purchase would be more for sentimental reasons kind of like the local newspapers. Having said that I am sure $20 m overvalues the building. Having Berkshire as a tenant means people might be willing to pay up for it. You know, that's a good point - if people are willing to pay $3M to have lunch with Warren, why not buy the building, you might get to have lunch with him a lot more often! Buy the building and install listening devices? Haha -
Buffett house in market - Laguna Beach CA
sleepydragon replied to shalab's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
He didn’t buy a multi million beach house. He bought a 150ish one, I believe. It went up in prices. What he can do about it? Sell it and buy another 150ish house? -
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
sleepydragon replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
The interviewer mis spoke about the banks’ reserves but Buffett was very quick correcting him :) Still a very sharp mind -
Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
sleepydragon replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
People was commenting after 2018 Annual meeting that WEB talked so slow nowadays due to his old age. I have always felt it's more likely he intentionally slowed down to help the real-time live Mandarin translations. In today's CNBC interview, it will be much better if Mr. Buffett could act up a bit, i.e. talk very slow, forgot a few questions, or even faint, so he can do more buyback! :p -
Buffett house in market - Laguna Beach CA
sleepydragon replied to shalab's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Not really, cuz Mr Buffett didn’t want to buy this house initially (ex wife’s idea), and now he would like to sell because it has less utility to him. He is unlikely to be selling due to money reason, i.e he didn’t buy it to make a profit. -
Buffett house in market - Laguna Beach CA
sleepydragon replied to shalab's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
If they put a picture of Mr Buffett on the wall, I bet it will sell faster. -
Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
sleepydragon replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Well, The press release says they may or may not buyback, depending on their view of the intrinsic value. I am hoping no buyback :) cuz i want to buy more
