sleepydragon

Thanks! I will check it out

Thrifty, I think when you use ROE, people get to valuation represented by a multiple of the book value. The higher roe the higher multiple. If you mix roe and DCF model, you need to make sure you separate the FCF from earning to do DCF. So in your spreadsheet, you use ROE to get the earnings, you then deduct capex (and dividends), and then DCF on the FCF/retained earning. Actually I think a better way for valuations is do comparables. For BRKb, we can compare BRK against UNP, XLU, progressive and then just take the market value of the portfolio. I believe if we take brk’s revenue segmentation weighted YTD market price returns of the peer companies of BRK’s biggest component’s, we will find BRK is lagging by at least 20% YTD.

Hands down Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of any Asset by Aswath Damodaran. Spent several months on this. This is after I passed all the CFA exams. It just goes into all the nitty gritty that is not covered well elsewhere. Some prefer McKinsey's Valuation book. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1118130731/ref=pd_bxgy_3/137-5938580-2840858?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1118130731&pd_rd_r=5dc816ca-cf6a-4875-869b-211f186b1995&pd_rd_w=jTwQ7&pd_rd_wg=igTPH&pf_rd_p=4e3f7fc3-00c8-46a6-a4db-8457e6319578&pf_rd_r=NCA2HZFBPWA29D8W148Y&psc=1&refRID=NCA2HZFBPWA29D8W148Y Vinod, thank you very much! I read a smaller book by him before and it was pretty good.

What is a good book to read on this subject? Thanks!

He still does. He posted something on his Facebook page on Jun 4th

https://ctmirror.org/2020/06/22/navy-electric-boat-reach-10-3-billion-deal-to-begin-building-columbia-class-subs/

As long as Buffett does NOT acquire AMZN, I am ok, cuz my wife has been asking me to buy AMZN 3 years ago and ask me not to buy BRK. (and to prove her point, she bought AMZN in a simulated stock game account for something like 800/share). If Buffett acquires AMZN, I think I will have to handle over the family investment account to my wife.

hahaha. I was having trouble getting a full image of it and saw the signature. I was like "Fmr Chairman...Buffett is retiring?!?!?" And then I adjusted things and got a better view. That was pretty awesome. It was apparently a joke but a Chinese financial news site picked it up, and likely due to poor translation, took it for real. So last night it was widely reported in various Chinese news site that Buffett was retiring.

;)

Not just capital intensive but also labor intensive companies shall be avoided. I think bio tech companies will be fine. They can raise prices and don’t hire that many people.

My man. High Five! :D

MTB and Brkb

Bought a bit SLG

https://bankunderground.co.uk/2020/06/09/covid-19-briefing-corporate-balance-sheets/ “ “While it is still very uncertain how the Covid-19 induced crisis will unfold and to what extent it will resemble the global financial crisis, some lessons from the global financial crisis might be good to keep in mind. Joseph, Kneer, Van Horen and Saleheen (2019) show that during the global financial crisis companies with limited cash holdings had to reduce their investment and therefore lost productive capacity. When demand returned and market conditions improved they were not able to catch up with their cash-rich rivals and as a result lost market share to them. Companies with large amounts of cash on their balance sheets at the onset of the coronavirus crisis might therefore emerge as winners in the post-Covid world.” Buy BRKa!

Recent Forbes article about Fisher: https://www.forbes.com/sites/noahkirsch/2019/10/21/unearthed... If Phillips Fisher is still alive, he will slap his face a few times.

Added a bit to BRKb And bought a bit of BIIB

Seems these defense companies employ way too many people... Maybe they have problems to lay-off people as govt contractor. HII for example is 8bn mktcap but employ 40k. That’s only 200k revenue per employee. Google, Visa etc is at least 10 times that Even banks are higher.

Too funny ;D

Wfc

USB, MTB, BOH, PM

Sold VNO and bought BRKB

Mr. Buffett is not running a casino. We shouldn’t expect him to bet on the stock market when it’s down a merely 30%. He is running a business, and he probably see how bad this virus is effecting businesses better than us. If you want to bet, you can always bet using your own money. But Buffett has other responsibilities, including supporting the various Berkshire businesses and survive no matter what happens.

Feel Very bearish to me..

I guess this shows Buffett and Charlie think quite differently from most people on this board. That's why we are not as rich as them.

added more VNO Bought a starting position in CMCSA