frommi

If your account gets hacked and your money transferred out of your account via these illiquid stocks that you/the hacke bought for horrondeos prices, you maybe think a little bit different about this issue

added BNL to my REIT basket.

VNDA after it reached NCAV.

No because its irrelevant but he also makes macro calls, they are just not as promiment. Winding up his partnership in 1969? Selling BRK-stock in 2000 and warning of the bubble? Even in the latest letter is a hint that the market is very frothy. I am pretty sure he also looks at the yield curve and its implications. Graham told us that we should increase our cash/bond allocation at times and have it varying depending on whats available. So its not so black and white. For me it makes sense to look where we are in the capital cycle and invest accordingly. Theres also a book on this i think its Capital Returns: Investing through the Capital Cycle .

The inverted yield curve is not really a signal, its the root cause of why the economy doens't expand anymore. Banks lend long term and borrow short term. So if the yield curve is inverted they don't make money on new credit, which leads to reduced economic activity. At least as far as i understand this. Maybe increased government spending counteracts this a bit, but i doubt its enough to counter it in the long run.

True, but with my strategy of just buying puts over the summer months when unemployment is trending up, i just have to be right 1 out of 5 times to make money in the end.

It takes time after the inversion, and the stock market weakness typically starts after the first rate cut.

yes thats the last nail. first sign - Yield curve negative - since more than 1 year now, just like 1989, 2001 and 2008. second sign - Unemployment rate growing, low was 3.4% last year, we are at 3.9% now. like 1989, 2001 or 2008. third sign - Rate cuts. Economy is weakening. 0-6 months after these events we had a 20-25% "crash" in every case. And you wont find a lot of instances where 1. and 2. happened without a crash. It only occured in 1979-1982, the pullbacks there were just 5-10%. But Shiller P/E in those years was 7-8, while we are now at 35. I would argue, based on these facts, the top is close or already in.

2% fcf yield for a business that grows at 7-8% in the long run and has problems atm. still not really cheap.

As far as i understand it, high HDL is not a problem at all. And high LDL is also not always a problem or the real problem, its just an indicator. See https://youtu.be/sY48qLl9ZzE?si=m6xPfabrrcyp21F6 or

I watched a lot of interviews with Sinclair, the basic stuff is all fine. But he is deep into supplements, like Bryan Johnson. And for a reason, because they sell this stuff. You can spend millions on this with zero change on your longevity. >95% of people will not do the core stuff (like workouts/changing diet/stop smoking) and focus on the things that change little. Because the core stuff requires hard work and changing habits. Taking supplements/spending money is easy. But it will not make you live that much longer in isolation.

I eat 3 eggs per day for breakfast, i doubt its the eggs. High cholesterol levels can come from being overweight, because it changes how much cholesterol your body produces. If you eat too much cholesterol your body will mostly just get rid of what it doesn't need. If i were you i would cut carbohydrates out completly first and see how it goes. For me going low-carb was a life-changing event. I will never go back. But everybody is different in that regard, you have to test which diet works best for you. Going whole foods and avoiding processed foods as already mentioned is core. I would suggest a diary where you write down what you eat. Often that process of writing down will already change what you eat. As for strength training, i would begin with push-ups, squads and sit-ups. These are "easy", effective and free.

I have a simple rule, anyone that has a company in the field of medical stuff that wants to sell you something for longevity (even if it is just a book) i dont trust. So advice from Sinclair or Esselstyn are out for me . I think its pretty common sense nowadays that working out (having enough muscle mass), not smoking or drinking alcohol, good sleep (~8 hours) and not being overweight is >90% of the journey. The rest is just noise, and most of the time somebody just wants to sell you something.

1.65% real IF there is no rerating to the mean. If you factor that into the equotation you are looking at negative real returns for the index. But most here probably dont invest into the index, so who cares?

While i believe there are still cheap stocks available, i would not be surprised by a large crash this year. In fact all facts that i see point to at least a 70-80% chance of a 15-20% drawdown. Not because stock market valuations are very high by historical standards, but because the economy is slowly bending over. I looked at the past 50 years, and 1 year after the yield curve inverts and the unemployment rate creeps up (vs. the 3 month average) in 80% of all cases the stock market tanked at least 15% over the summer. Maybe history is not a good guide here, but i see no reason why it should be different this time. You see it already in the numbers of retailers like TGT, SBUX or MCD that the consumer is stretched to the hill. So be prepared

I missed it either way, but i dont regret missing that, because it was not really knowable beforehand. But the fact that netnets work very well was knowable since a long long time. You just had to read the right books and listen to the greatest investing mentor on earth. It just doesn't work with really large sums of money (>5 million probably). And netnet's didnt stop working in 2007, in fact since i invest in netnet's that systematic approach has always beaten the market over a 3-5 year timeframe. And by a large margin (for example 2020->2024 that system has a cagr of 50% with real money on the line even though 2023 it was flat).

I regret not learning about value investing and businesses earlier. My investing career started by gambling as a day trader and because of early wins it took me at least 7-8 years until i gave it up. And i lost a fuck ton of money in that time. Wasted another 2-3 years with asset allocation shit and ETF's. Knowing about net net stocks in 2000-2007 would have been a life changing time. Probably would sit on a yacht writing this now.

LOL. If you dont find cheap stuff at the moment you are not working hard enough.

Puts on BA,TSLA and DAX. BA/TSLA are the worst large cap stocks in my quant mom/value ranking and the DAX puts are for the seasonals (sell in may and go away actually works in the DAX)

MDLZ, i am addicted to the chocolade and the stock is not as expensive as it used to be.

Talking my book here, so Tobacco, REIT's or discounted NCAV stocks. Everything in the oil sector like OXY, gold miners (or even better royalty companies like RGLD,SAND) etc. But if we get a recession in 1-2 years, i doubt you will make a lot of money on these until after the recession. I would really love to see a repeat of 00-08, but i doubt we will see it. Because back than china was building their ghost cities, which will probably not be repeated and they consumed a lot of the worlds resources for that. (iron ore etc.)

Yes, but only half of the story is written and only interest income is fixed for 4 years. What if insurance goes into a soft market now that every insurance company can get higher rates? And what if interest rates are much lower in 4 years, dont you think the market will anticipate that? Its all rosy now. I bought @ 0.5x bv and thought that around 1-1.1 is a good target (because that is where FFH was priced for a very long period of time), so at the moment the next year of income is also priced in at 1.2 x bv. If you are a long term holder just ignore me and stay the course .

Sold FFH after my thesis has played out and the stock has re-rated. Don't like betting on further multiple expansion.

Thats a very good idea, i track my dividend income in a similar sheet since 5 or 6 years and it is a great motivation. Tracking earnings is probably even better , i think i will add that to my sheet. Thanks!

Its a little bit funny, the article is from 2016 and since then the staples sector has underperformed by a lot. Maybe past performance is a poor indicator?