Gamecock-YT
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Posts posted by Gamecock-YT
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We probably crossed paths. I've been here for around a month. Kyoto was the most crowded I've ever seen it, was almost not enjoyable. I'm up north now and away from the tourist hoards. Granted not much english being spoken but make due. Glad you had a good time, it's my favorite country in the world.
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let me tell you, referencing the nuclear bomb while in japan goes over swimmingly.
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Honestly there hasn't really been much. He hasn't wanted to answer a lot of questions and Becky hasn't really held him or got him to clarify the answers to the questions that were being asked.
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20 minutes ago, mcliu said:
How did it get to this point in the US? Isn't democracy supposed to self-correct and people with ideologies that don't work get voted out?
Gerrymandering combined with politics becoming a team sport. All the actors clinging to power have to toe the line or they risk being primaried. Leads to a fly wheel of political polarization.
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4 hours ago, LC said:
What is the end game for office here?
Conversions to residential? That works in a handful of marquee locations, but not for the majority.
And I imagine it's incredibly expensive: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/business/what-would-it-take-to-turn-more-offices-into-housing.html
And office buildings look like crap. Character-less panes of mirrored glass and uniform windows.
Thoughts and prayers that corporate tenants return? Well why would they? It's been almost 3 years of nationwide work-from-home or semi-WFH. I don't see that changing. It's cheaper, arguably more efficient, and well liked by most employees.
And look at the cities themselves - they are blown out with crime and homelessness. Know anyone dying to move to SF these days? I don't.
Someone way smarter than me has a great opportunity on their hands if they can figure out a (cheap) way to revitalize old office bldgs and make it a cultural part of urban life.
What was the end game of housing in 07/08? It gets cheap enough that someone buys it and sits on it until the trend turns and companies start wanting CRE again. I think back to Dan Gilbert buying a bunch of buildings in downtown Detroit after the GFC, eventually it was revitalized and became a trendy place to be. As always, it's just about getting the timing right.
But talking about residential conversions, if things get bad enough then I think you'll see the feds and local governments incentivizing conversions.
Same as it ever was.
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Must be really needing to hype up this bond issuance
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Two of the companies own FamilyMart and Lawson’s. Could see uncle warren enjoying some famichiki.
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Quote
TOKYO -- Warren Buffett told Nikkei in an interview on Tuesday that he intends to add to his investments in Japanese stocks, saying he is "very proud" of his holdings in companies including the nation's top five trading groups.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in August 2020 that it acquired slightly more than 5% each in Japan's top five trading houses, which are known in Japan as sogo shosha, themselves investment companies.
"We're very proud of that," Buffett told Nikkei in Tokyo, saying he would meet with the companies this week "to really just have a discussion around their businesses and emphasize our support."
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N177QS/history/20230409/2140Z/KOMA/RJTT
If I was a 92 year old I wouldn't be flying 12 hours across the pacific and dealing with the jet-lag unless I had a good reason. Granted having 1 of 3 Netjet Global 7500s doesn't hurt.
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zerohedge is good but you have to filter out anything that is authored by anyone but themselves and specific to financial info. much more deeper in the weeds of finance info than you're going to reliably get from FT or WSJ.
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I've been doing well in a different sport using something similar. There are plenty of blind spots that could cause you problems. Injuries being the big one. But I was winning so consistently I had to start increasing the bet sizes. A lot of work though. Plus always the prospect that if you do well enough that people aren't going to want to take your business.
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6 hours ago, ASTA said:
Terry Smith (fundsmith funds)
Having spent the first decade of my career working in a bank and then becoming a top-rated bank analyst*, I find that people often express surprise that I never invest in bank shares.https://www.ft.com/content/831cee08-7250-44e4-b992-8b8d1ec1c516
ditto. The amount of black boxes that people high up weren’t even aware of would be pretty shocking to most people. -
9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
I actually think that banks can elect if they do let AOCI affect regulatory levels or not, but I am not sure.
here is one Example. FFIEC report from Exchange bank in Santa Rosa. They hold a huge bucket of securities (~$1.5B) in AFS. MTM loss ~$150M
Hence the fair value losses run to GAAP equity and reduce it from ~$350M to ~$200. However , despite th MTM losses reducing in GAAP book value, and the securities held AFS regulatory capital stills stands at $350M
Second page below shows that Exchange bank has elected to opt out of AOCI. So I think the GAAP equity is $202M here and the regulatory capital is $355M. As far as I know any bank that I have looked at ops out of AOCI adjustments affective regulatory capital. I may have misinterpreted something
Example ZOIN Bank - same form:
I always imagine that if the CFO or his assistant one day makes a mistake and checks the box with a "0" instead of a "1" and sent this to the FDIC the bank could instantaneously implode with the Fed standing at the door on a Friday afternoon to shut the place down. Oops.
As someone that used to send reports like these in, I can assure you the CFO and/or his assistant don't get anywhere close to these reports. And in the past when there have been errors, it's usually not the FRB/FDIC catching the errors, it's a few quarters down the road that the bank identifies and self-reports.
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3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
@Dalal.Holdings Thanks for the summary, i was aware of the insurance transaction. It is interesting that the insurance brokerage business is worth a substantial part of TFC market cap. I followed TFC when they were BBT for a while and never really liked management too much as I think they overpromised and underdelivered. That said, the shares seemed habe taken quite a beating for a bank with this quality and particular the demographic tailwind in their operating area.
All BB&T management is gone, it's all Suntrust executives now. It's up for you to decide if that's a positive or a negative. I don't have a high opinion of them.
Also you guys that are factoring in EWS as a factor in making investing decisions. It's literally a rounding error, even among the banks' other equity investment positions.
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Belly Up by Phillip L. Zweig is another good Penn Central book.
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You know things are screwed when the president has to give comments on the banking system.
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4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Why would companies tap their revolvers? They only do this if they themselves are in a liquidity crunch. The bigger risk is deposit runs, Imo. I think those are unlikely, but there are few banks with strained liquidity and narrow focus like PACW that may have to do something.
Roku had 26% of their cash disappear overnight. You don't think if we get a few more bank failures this week that companies aren't going to want to get more liquid?
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I wonder if we see another couple of banks get taken down next week if companies start tapping their revolvers to insure they have ample liquidity. Would be the start of a vicious circle for the banking system.
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44 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Even though BAC bought way too much low yielding debt during the pandemic, they still have plenty of options to shore up any deposits that may be pulled. I think we are quite a long way off from it spiralling.
Will be interesting they shuffled a lot of the old guard after the pandemic. CFO is new, also of note the Treasurer that instituted the strategy is out of the role as well.
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14 hours ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
To be fair, it seems like SVB made some absolutely idiotic decisions with risk management. Who in their right mind buys so much long treasuries at like 1.5% interest rates
Bank of America during the pandemic.
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How many tech companies working the weekend trying to raise capital? These guys almost blew up during the last tech bubble. Had recently been doing rapid expansion. Had opened an east coast office and also had an office in Phoenix. They at one point had recruited me for a job. Talk about dodging a bullet!
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Think their ad campaign by Peggy Olson did them in.
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16 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35746705/sources-marc-lasry-agrees-sell-bucks-haslams-35b
Probably the reason Pilot deal was completed in January 2023.
His brother is also purchasing the Nashville Predators hockey team in a slow series of investments that will see him become the sole owner.
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Ignore it being Sky News but Michael Clarke has done an incredibly job analyzing the nuances of the war, did an hour long Q&A (just skip over anything that isn't him talking). Learning something new every time he speaks.
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50 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
following. i would like to know too. how i wish there were moody's manuals still
they're called mergent manuals now. have a database called mergent online. not sure if it's the same but similar in type
Leaving New York City
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gamecock-YT
You know it's interesting being on the other side of the world since the beginning of the year, and being out of the country for most of the past 18 months, that the news cycle is different when you're either at the very beginning of trends before they take off or they're already 12 hours in the past and people have already started moving on to the next 'item'. But it's funny you guys keep talking about protecting kids but everyone is glossing over that not even 3 weeks ago, 3 kids and 3 adults were shot at school. Then what, not even a week ago someone shot up an office in Louisville? Another 6 people murdered. We're not even a year from the Uvalde school shooting where 19 kids were murdered.
But the narrative is/was never how about fixing/solving that, it's devolved into politicians getting kicked out of the state government and this weird bud light/transgender story that's triggering people. But it sure seems like you guys are eating it up. It all gives the appearance of smoke and mirrors to blind you from what's happening in front of your face.
It's gotten to the point I might not come back to live in the US. As a quasi-outsider it borders on insanity watching what is going on.