Gamecock-YT
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Posts posted by Gamecock-YT
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It's like the Doolittle Raid of Tokyo in WW2. Bringing the war home.
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20 hours ago, rkbabang said:
Absolutely.
I use my sous vide circulator 1-3x per week. After I'm done getting it to the correct internal temperature I either sear it in a hot pan with a little bacon grease, or with my torch ( https://www.etsy.com/listing/918859663/culinary-cooking-torch-searing-sous-vide ), or my 1500 degree F infrared searer (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B089Y1HXSF).
during the pandemic I was using it every day. Still when I'm at home I sous vide some boiled eggs for breakfast and usually sous vide some salmon for dinner. Easy.
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a sous vide will get you 80% of the the way there for 5-10% of the cost depending how fancy a setup you want
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Buyout groups raise debt against portfolios to return cash as dealmaking slows
https://www.ft.com/content/f23d9cd9-2650-4943-a9ac-eb262414e772
Private equity fund managers are borrowing against asset portfolios to return cash to investors as they struggle to exit investments, adding another layer of debt to the loans financing their corporate buyouts. Firms are increasingly resorting to the technique, called net asset value financing, because rising debt costs and concern over the economy are making it difficult for them to sell or list the companies they own.
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But some analysts have voiced concerns that such borrowing heaps extra debt on buyout portfolio companies that are already grappling with higher borrowing costs and a weakening economic outlook.
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I think you are fooling yourself if you don’t think these are ultimately beholden to the local government in some capacity. If there was a way to invest in landing fees/port fees for ships or some type of revenue stream I’d be more interested than having to invest in an asset that most people hate or if they love it’s ran or operated by the state trying to advertise to the world.
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Well over 50%, probably close to 60%. A nice slug in ibonds I’ll probably cash in by the end of the year. Rest of the portfolio sitting in 4/8 week bills that I roll and money market funds in the tax-free accounts. Worse problems to have than sitting in cash.
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Stress tests have always been a joke. The only one that’s ever had any teeth was the covid re-run in the beginning of the pandemic. They are a check the box exercise at this point. The internal scenarios the banks run are incredibly more punitive and a lot more dynamic to
market conditions. The Fed is always fighting the last crisis, that extends to stress testing as well.
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2 hours ago, Intelligent_Investor said:
The striking down of the student loan forgiveness should help somewhat with inflation. Less money in people's pockets = less spending
Sorry honey I spent this month's student loan bill on zero dated options.
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American tried suing the people they sold their unlimited flights to. Agree with #3 and 4 of his tips. #2 will usually cause more problems than it is worth. Standbys get those seats. Guess if you are good at making lame excuses.
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it's mergent archives. I don't have access to the database any longer. Best bet is try a public or college library for access.
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Might be coincidence but I’ve seen 3 sub hunter planes leaving Iceland this morning. Have a good guess where they are heading….
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3 hours ago, Ulti said:
I dunno Deal..... I liked listening to Kaplan because he is succinct ( not to wonkish ) ,work experience, and has an interesting take.....Do I sell EWBC based on his bearish forecasting of the future of regional banking; No. ( and thanks for the suggestion ). As I get older,I'm becoming more skeptical of experts in finance and investing... but I drive around and listen to them because I'm curious and its better than listening to my 18 year old's music ..haha
beauty of leaving the finance industry and the day-to-day coming and goings is you realize so so SOOOO much of news is just idle banter in order to fill a broadcast, newspaper, etc. it’s all noise.
much better to be in your own thoughts and stick to your little niches. Then just wait.
im currently waiting while on a cruise going through the Norwegian fjords. Logged on to my brokerage account once in the past 7-8 days?
someone let me know when the market blows up.
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Just an average day air quality wise in Southeast Asia
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Being able to do what you want, when you want, how you want. And the price of that depends on where you are choosing to do it at. First world that figure is a lot higher than going to the second or third world. Also depends if you want lifestyle signaling/keeping up with the Joneses. To each their own.
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On a ship that has 10 channels, one of which is CNBC, every time I flip it on they’re talking AI. Guess it’s like when bitcoin/SPACs/EVs hype took off. Don’t know why people even watch that shit.
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Bring some eyeshades if you are going in the summer. Between the jet lag and the sun only setting for a couple of hours, sleep comes at a premium. I'm heading to Norway next week myself.
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Think that's the treasury direct/retail rate that you have circled
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Depends what the Japanese do about their interest rates. Lots of 2nd and 3rd level effects if they start hiking from japanese repatriating their money into yen, managing their higher interest payments, and their horrible demographics. Could see private equity having a field day if they keep yield curve control in place.
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15 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:
That is awesome! I can’t imagine doing that. I’m flying into Lisbon this weekend and driving/cycling to picos de Europa. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
The time out market lisboa is great. I ate there multiple times during my time there.
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8 hours ago, LearningMachine said:
Yes, that was part of my take-away as well. You can see the snippet at https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/06/warren-buffett-on-oil-we-like-occidentals-position-in-the-permian-basin.html .
Beyond that, Buffett and Munger also said other positive things about oil:
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Shale is a not a long term source of oil.
- "If you like quick death in your oil wells, we have them for you."
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"Just imagine taking 5 mb/d out of production in the world and then we are also taking down our strategic petroleum reserve"
- He was making this point to highlight possibility of oil price shooting through the roof after 5 mb/d production from shale runs out.
- Changing the official target for inflation rate from 0% to 2% is sending a message that you're going to depreciate the currency over time.
- There is lot more oil under Permian if you can figure out how to take it out.
Buffett also accepted the risks he is taking with oil price going up or down, but is saying those are acceptable risks.
He didn't go into on this talk but Munger has shared recently about the cartel's pricing power being part of their decision making. Also, even if the oil price doesn't shoot through the roof, if the price of the rights to receive cash from oil at today's price is so low that he is going to get his cash back in some years, he is happy with that and doesn't find the need to explain it to everyone.
When Buffett is giving a muddled message, i.e. talking about both pros and cons, it usually means he has been thinking about it a lot to decide to buy more if he could. For example, at the 2020 Annual Meeting, when asked about why he was not buying BRK stock when it was trading at about $160 for B-Shares, he gave a similar muddled message that BRK was worth less compared to when he had bought before the pandemic, and ended with something like "we'll see." Right after saying that, he bought a lot of BRK.
That said, I still find it surprising BRK is not buying oil sands with much higher reserve lives, no exploration costs, and lower cash operating costs than shale.
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2 things that stood out to me was he was kind of hinting at the oil being an inflation hedge and he thought that the SPR was being used as a political tool instead of its intended use
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Shale is a not a long term source of oil.
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quit propping your kids up to ask questions. it's cute the first time, not so the 7th time
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Funny story on those investments by money center banks: The financial institution I worked at during the time these investments were being done made an investment in a bank not realizing that it traded OTC, so instead of holding the investment at cost like the rest of the banks that were privately held, this one should have been marked to market. The price the purchase was done at compared to what it was trading over the counter would have resulted in an immediate ~15% loss on the investment. Needless to say the decision was made by the higher ups not to mark the investment at market.
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3 hours ago, longlake95 said:
I think it’s more like 25% of home owners are mortgage free, and the other 75% have mortgages.
This is a bit dated but when I was going down the rabbit hole yesterday was as relevant as I could get:
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CIBC had about C$52 billion ($38 billion) worth of variable-rate mortgages, or about 20% of its Canadian portfolio, where the borrower’s fixed monthly payments are no longer covering interest, as of the fiscal first quarter ended Jan. 31. Those unpaid amounts are being added to the principal instead, causing a process called “negative amortization” where the loan effectively grows instead of shrinking even as borrowers pay.
Because of this change, consumers will take even longer to repay the debt, and CIBC is now expecting many of those mortgages to be amortized over more than 30 years.
Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal also allow variable-rate borrowers to extend the period of time in which they’re expected to pay off the debt. For those lenders, mortgages longer than 30 years accounted for about 30% of each banks’ Canadian mortgage books in the first quarter, up from about zero during the same period a year earlier. The banks attribute much of this growth to floating-rate loans that are now facing negative amortization.
Don't see this ending well.
Merger Arb Basket
in General Discussion
Posted
Yeah Jetblue didn't try to appeal the northeast alliance ruling while American Air did. Trying to play ball with the Feds to push through the sprit deal. I think there's going to be some merger issues from a culture perspective, JetBlue thinks of themselves almost as a 'luxury brand' as much as one can an airline. Whereas Spirit is basically a flixbus/greyhound bus service. Can those employees adapt to the luxury culture? Or will the standards drop? But if anything this allows JetBlue to expand rapidly in a period where there's a shortage of both pilots and aircraft.