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Gamecock-YT

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Posts posted by Gamecock-YT

  1. forget what article I was reading that mentioned that all the corporate loans that companies took out in pre-covid/covid at 2-3%, they can put the cash in money markets accounts and capture the spread. Basically don't have any issues until the loan comes up for renewal. So early days still. 

  2. That's strange. I would expect for sure that Mergent Archives would have GM annual reports. The search engine is known to be kind of finicky when it comes to displaying results so you sometimes have to attack the problem in a different way with different tags to search. Barring that you might reach out to Mergent directly or have a librarian do it on your behalf, these are big customers for the company so they'll be incentivized to hopefully respond if you go through the librarians. 

  3. 10 hours ago, Dinar said:

    The best solution to the government deficit problem is to slash welfare, food stamps, Medicaid and similar programs, including end government guarantee of student loans.  The result will be a reduction in government spending (a very substantial one), increase in taxes as employment will increase materially, lower inflation as the wages will not have to compete with very generous social benefits.  In addition, it is better for society when people work rather than collect welfare, including fewer children born to unwed mothers.  


    and all the politicians that vote for that immediately being thrown out of office next time they are up for re-election. No incentive to stop the gravy train. They get to keep cashing them checks. It’ll be someone else’s problem.

  4. 5 hours ago, UK said:

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-israel-talks-riyadh-oil-increase-a25d6106?mod=hp_lead_pos3

     

    Saudi Arabia has told the White House it would be willing to boost oil production early next year if crude prices are high—a move aimed at winning goodwill in Congress for a deal in which the kingdom would recognize Israel and in return get a defense pact with Washington, Saudi and U.S. officials said. That understanding is part of an effort to seal a three-way agreement that would also likely include U.S. nuclear assistance and represents a notable shift by Riyadh, which a year ago rebuffed a Biden administration request to help lower oil prices and fight inflation, severely straining relations.

     

     

    might be out the window with the israel news this morning

  5. Something I've been trying to work through is the game theory of OPEC+ supply cuts in an election year. If you are Putin, a Trump win next November is a game changer for Ukraine. What's a good way to influence that? Punitive oil prices. I know congress tried to constrain Biden from tapping the SPR but in an election year all bets are off with trying anything to keep oil prices low. From my perspective it's clear as day we're going to have a supply crunch at some point but trying to come up with what the tipping point is where my mind has been the last couple of weeks.

     

    Then again figuring out where to put your exposure is another animal. The Canadian patch looks from my perspective to be best given the constraints being lifted but these management teams seem to leave a lot to be desired. I guess could always just go passthrough and have royalty exposure through PrairieSky?

     

    Anybody have any thoughts? 

  6. 14 hours ago, crs223 said:

     

    Wow.  Shameful.  probably shouldn’t let this influence me, but it is powerful.  I wish Singapore and Japan were on the list.  Notice Mexico and Peru are the only two more likely to keep the wallet if it had money in it.

     

     

     

     

    Japan probably would have broken the chart to the upside

  7. I might be totally wrong but the thing giving my pause is next year being an election year and Biden showing no qualms over tapping the SPR. Toss in the non-zero chance of a recession and I'm still keeping the powder dry but want to be in with my positions by the end of the election year. Less incentive to keep oil prices low and non-zero chance a republican is in the white house and the green new deal gets put on the backburner. 

  8. Pretty sure you aren't getting a driving gig right off the bat too? Usually have to build enough seniority working at the distro center to transfer into a driving gig. And from what I've heard those package stacking jobs suck. 

     

    Also don't necessarily need to increase your revenue, can always decrease your expenses. Your dollar can go a helluva way longer in southeast asia or eastern europe. 

  9. Here come the layoffs:

     

     

    https://ir.truist.com/download/Barclays+Global+Financial+Services+Conference+2023.pdf

     

    Sept 11 (Reuters) - Truist Financial (TFC.N) is planning "sizable reductions" to its workforce over the next few months to save roughly $300 million in costs and said the bank's revenue for the current quarter was likely to be in line with its expectations.

     

    The layoffs, part of a larger cost savings program, will be underway from the current quarter to the first quarter of 2024, Truist said in a presentation to investors on Monday, sending shares 2% higher in mid-morning trading.

  10. On 8/31/2023 at 7:46 PM, Seoshin said:

    Lovely! Thanks for this! All noted already. I come from the Philippines so heat and humidity is nothing to me. For the grab, are cars popular in Hanoi? I always see motorcycles more than car so perhaps grab would be the same. 

    Noted also on the food! One of the main reasons I wanted to visit Vietnam so bad. haha 

     

    Cars are getting more popular but given how narrow a lot of the streets are in town, motos are still the mode of transport of choice for the locals. It's certainly cheaper to get around with grab on a moto but just be sure you keep your arms and legs in tight to the bike. I've got my ankle scrapped once while riding there. 

  11. On 8/22/2023 at 5:36 AM, Seoshin said:

    Oh wow I never thought there will be a travel thread here! 

    I'm going to Vietnam next month in Hanoi. Any travel tips for peeps that has already been there??

     

    The heat and humidity are brutal in September. 

     

    Buy a esim before you go or there are reasonably priced sim card you can buy at the airport. Download grab to get around. A car from the airport into town is insanely cheap if you are used to lyft/grab prices.

     

    If this is your first time, a good area to stay is around the old quarter/hoan kiem lake. 

     

    Hoa Lo Prison aka Hanoi Hilton is worth a visit, just be prepared for lots of propaganda. Area around Uncle Ho's mausoleum is nice, just don't piss off the guards. Can get from there to the Imperial Citadel and the war bunkers. 

     

    For food: Banh Mi 25 is a must when I visit. Bun Cha Ta for Bun Cha. Pasteur Street Brewing for beers. 

     

    Also be sure to watch some youtube videos on how to cross the road properly. The first time you do it is a real leap of faith. Maybe bring some earplugs too to cancel out some of the incessant horn honks you'll be hearing if your room isn't very insulated. 

     

    Enjoy!

  12. 17 hours ago, tede02 said:

    Last week I was asked to evaluate a pension change the Mayo Clinic is rolling out. Employees currently have a traditional defined benefit pension plan. The plan states a participant's accumulated benefit via a monthly dollar amount. Someone earning $100,000 annually accrues a $117 benefit each year (they'd have a $1,170 benefit after 10 years if their salary stayed the same), etc. 

     

    However, Mayo is changing the plan so participant's benefits are accumulated as a lump sum that they can choose to roll over at retirement or convert into a monthly benefit. They are essentially trying convert their pension into a quasi 401k that can be annuitized. The catch is the MONTHLY benefit wouldn't be known until a participant elects to start drawing benefits. Thus, it would be similar to purchasing an annuity in the open market. The monthly payment would be completely dependent on where interest rates are when they elect to start.

     

    Mayo is telling participants that the benefit to them (for making this change) is they know exactly what their lump sum amount is at all times. 

     

    But, this looks to me like the pension plan is trying to shift the interest rate risk onto participants. In theory, if interest rates were unchanged, the plan formula is supposed to create an equal benefit to the current methodology. But I'm thinking participants may be better sticking with the defined monthly benefit. They know exactly what they'll get at 65. If interest rates happen to fall, they have the optionality to take a lump sum. If rates are high, the lump sum isn't as attractive but they still have their monthly benefit which isn't impacted by rates.

     

    Current participants have the option to opt in or stick with the traditional pension formula. I'm trying to think of reasons why I'd want to opt in to the newer formula. It seems like the only scenario where I'd rather have a known lump sum (the new formula) is if I was very confident interest rates were going to be high. 

     

     

     

    Sounds like when the US government switched from CSRS to FERS. They tried like hell to get people to switch to FERS. If it was such a great deal, why push people to the other plan? 

  13. On 8/15/2023 at 6:33 AM, Luca said:

    For the danish folks here, @John Hjorth, I will travel with the GF to Copenhagen for the weekend, anything worth doing and not worth doing, we thought of visiting Rosenborg Castle, statens museum? What do you recommend:))

     

    Also not danish but just back from a few days there....

     

    Good beer spots: the mikkeller bars, Søernes Ølbar, and Fermentoren. Boerns Gadekokken is a nice little food truck/outdoor spot. 

     

    Ditto to skip the mermaid statue. I biked over to CopenHill, kind of unique spot to have a beer after you finish hiking up.

    • Like 1
  14. 15 hours ago, ValueArb said:

     

    Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.


    I guess you missed Tucker Carlson lambasting Pence for caring about Ukraine more than what was going on in the US. Especially will become an issue if the economy has issues before the election 

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