Gamecock-YT
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Posts posted by Gamecock-YT
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2 hours ago, schin said:
@Gamecock-YT I like your answers. M&A activity can be gotten from Dealogic. Where you do get a screen for dividend cuts and bankruptcies?
There's a lot of oil mergers lately (OXY being widely discussed). Dividends and bankruptcies don't appear to be an issue. Are there certain industries you are looking into now?
Not necessarily screens but you can get a lot of sector information just by reading a lot. Just this week you've seen Glencore and BHP cutting dividends. A lot of nickel mines are looking to shut down, or asking for government intervention, due to a supply glut coming out of Indonesia. So the mining sector seems interesting, maybe still a little early. There's already talk of a copper shortage in the next year or two.
And as you mentioned O&G consolidation in the permian. Is it likely to spread to other areas? You're seeing consolidation even today in Williston basin/Bakken so early returns seem like so. I could see the canadian O&G companies getting in the act as the TMX pipeline becomes operational.
But those are probably the two I'm focused on currently.
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On 2/22/2024 at 11:03 AM, schin said:
@Gamecock-YT - Have their concepts impacted your investing style? I know Howard Marks talks about super cycle too. So, I do like their writing on cycles, but don't trade in and out of cycles. (sector rotation). I generally use it to analyze an industry in down cycles that should revive -- like European banking.... or banking in America circa 2010.
I know shipping and oil are super cyclical, but they are commodities.
It's a good question. I think it's allowed me to get more comfortable investing in more commodity-type businesses by understanding where we are in the capital cycle. I guess the big winner using their concept was Scorpio Tankers. It was a losing position for a long time, with even bankruptcy concerns for most of 2018-2019. But the thesis was always that there was an inevitable supply crunch coming down the pike, no ships had been built since the last boom and product tankers have a finite life (~15 years) where most major oil companies won't contract ships older than that due to contamination concerns. Then Russia invades Ukraine and product tanker stocks go up 200-300%.
But I think now I'm using it as a quasi-screening process when I start seeing M&A activity, dividend cuts, bankruptcies it's a clue to start looking into the industry. Likewise when you see capex increases and/or debt increasing it's a sign that it might be time to start taking money off the table.
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also coincides with housing prices going down. Been a couple of articles recently about Hong Kongers moving to Shenzhen, especially among the youth
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4 minutes ago, Parsad said:
When you look at adjustments, discounts, calculating fair value, taxation related issues, attributed income classifications, etc...it's the auditors that make these calculations or at the very least review them and confirm them. Cheers!
it's just an observation, i'm intimately familiar with what an auditor does
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CFO really leaning on their auditors to carry a lot of these answers
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the call dropped
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6 minutes ago, ICUMD said:
Interesting.
What were the negatives?
Going with the little one who's 1.5 yrs old.
So didn't want to go off the beaten path.
Have really enjoyed Thailand in the past, so expecting a similar experience.
A little too touristy for my taste. Crowded. Traffic was really bad and takes a long time to get anywhere. Locals who weren't working at a place of business weren't exactly friendly. Tough to get around if you didn't have your own transportation.
Probably compare it to visiting Phuket but Hindus instead of Muslims as the local populace.
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Wasn't really a fan of Bali. Stayed in Nusa Dua, Sanur, Kuta, and Ubud. Read that Canggu/Seminyak had been taken over by instagram influencers/digital nomads so didn't bother. I think if I were to go back I'd try and get more north than Ubud or even just go across to Lombok/Gili Islands. Have some gado gado for me.
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is howard marks anything more than a talking head these days?
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Also ever since I've read the book, I always try and note article I find that make a point of identifying where we are in the capital cycle, just came across this article on Maersk:
https://www.ft.com/content/1908b06c-0a38-4f5d-81f8-05b42baff81e
QuoteMaersk shares drop after it warns on shipping outlook and suspends buybacks
World’s second-largest container shipping group says industry is confronting oversupply
Shares in AP Møller-Maersk plunged on Thursday after it warned of a “difficult patch” for the container shipping industry, suspended its share buyback programme and slashed its dividend. Vincent Clerc, chief executive of the world’s second-largest container line, said that large amounts of new ships due for delivery this year and next would saddle the sector with an excess capacity, hitting results for some time. “This overcapacity will put earnings under pressure . . . and could mean a difficult patch in the coming years. We are in front of a situation that requires a lot of prudence,” he told the Financial Times. Shares in Copenhagen-listed Maersk fell more than 13 per cent in early trading on Thursday. Faced with an especially uncertain outlook, Maersk said it would be scrapping the fifth part of a share buyback plan, worth $1.6bn, that it had announced in November.
I also try to capture and save the euphoria articles so went to see if I had any for shipping, sure enough from August 2021:
https://www.ft.com/content/6145121c-7069-4ca5-bd8f-429461617d37
QuoteShipping group Hapag-Lloyd earns more in 6 months than in previous 10 years
Supply chain ructions during pandemic drive bumper earnings at German group and rivals
One of the world’s largest shipping companies has reported first-half profits far in excess of those made over the past decade as a whole, illuminating how disruption to global supply chains is powering bumper profits for carriers. Hapag-Lloyd’s net profit for the six months to June jumped tenfold over the previous year to €2.7bn as freight rates surged due to rampant demand for goods, bottlenecks at ports and a shortage of empty containers. That compares to a total net profit of €977m in the previous 10 years. “What we’ve seen in 2021, I don’t know if we’ll ever see that again,” chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen told the Financial Times. The pandemic has caused large ructions in supply chains and shipping due to volatile demand as a result of lockdowns and booming ecommerce. Containers have been in short supply and vessels have been tied up waiting to berth at overwhelmed ports, leading shipping costs to rocket since the end of last year.The article also links to a Maersk article which mentioned: "Other container shipping companies have begun ordering new vessels again, hoping for the current surge in demand to continue."
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I want to say there's a PDF version of Capital Account floating around on the internet, though to be honest I got a lot more out of Capital Returns than I did Capital Account.
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On 2/1/2024 at 1:29 PM, schin said:
For example, are the revenue/FP&A models so good for banks like JPM, BAC, Deutsche Bank -- that they know how their trading, M&A pipeline will be in 6 months?
Is anyone in the corporate industry that can chime in?
Where I worked we were always told not to put something in the forecast unless we were absolutely sure it would happen because you would always have to speak to it once you put it in. And even then you forecast conservatively so you'd discount the revenue based on how certain you were. But our internal forecasts would go out 2-2.5 years into the future and they would be updated quarterly: 0+12, 4+8, 7+5, (9+3 sometimes), and 10+2. (Months of actuals) + (Months of forecast). We did have pretty good visibility into M&A, IPO timelines and what we expected the P&L impact to be, but you always wanted to overdeliver your forecast instead of underdelivering.
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4 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
It’s odd so many people feel like American dream is dead. I feel like American work ethic is what’s dead in so many people. Too many people want something for nothing. You actually have to take responsibility for your life, educate yourself, work hard. It’s not any difference than it ever was. They just started giving trophies in school for participating and people were taught incorrectly to just get a handout.
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9 hours ago, xo 1 said:
I have long avoided learning anything about energy trading, so I ask from ignorance, but can someone explain what the point of the energy trading operations were/are for Pilot?
Goosing the Haslam's EBIT number
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these snowball derivatives kind of sound a bit like portfolio insurance from the 80s.
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might lend more evidence that citi is the missing BRK stock
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Also related to MNPI, if you ever don't want to disclose to people what you are working on at a company just tell them a part of it involves MNPI and you'll scare them away
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noted eastern european expert Howard Buffett
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as a plane nerd I think this is lufthansa business class. Most likely the 747-800 flying EZE-FRA.
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We buy things we don't need with money we don't have to impress people we don't like
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it's a good book, a little wordy but will inevitably show that most of these bubbles rhyme
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8 hours ago, Luca said:
Yes, if anybody can recommend me good restaurants and other good things to do in Japan/Osaka and Kyoto Area, out with it!
Depends the time of year you are visiting, Sakura in the spring and the leaves changing in the fall can be itineraries all on their own.
I would also suggest a day trip or overnight stay in Nara if you are in the area, seeing the deer all around is kind of neat and good transportation links to get around town. If you are a car person, Toyota has a great car museum not too far from Nagoya station. Also, a direct train runs from Osaka/Kyoto to Kanazawa, which will be much less crowded than Kyoto but still has a lot of historical places and a great market. Just watch out for the weather, it's the seattle of japan.
That said, Kyoto:
Bamboo forest (arashiyama)
Fushimi Inari (go really early or late in the day), combine with Tofuku-ji temple when down in that area
Imperial palace
Golden temple is kind of out of the way and not really anything else there but you have to go if you haven't been
Nishiki market
then you have the walking path on the east side of the city to hit a bunch of temples (kiyomizudera, kodaiji, shorenin temple)
eikando temple and higashiyama temple more to the northeast.
Best way to get around is bus, sadly the public buses can get really crowded. There's a tourist big red bus that might be worth checking out, and a time saver too. i haven't used it but have seen it around town at some spots.
Maybe because I ate there last night but Yamachan for Japanese chicken wings is a place i always go while in the country. they are utterly addiction.
Osaka the prime territory is Dotonbori, plenty of takoyaki places around to get a bite to eat, walk up and down the canal and the bridges, take the photo of the famous glico man. also have to try osaka Okonomiyaki, a japanese cabbage pancake. it's fantastic.
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I bet Billy lives in a glass house too
Semper Augustus
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted · Edited by Gamecock-YT
149 pages lol