DTEJD1997

Hey all: I don't think there can be any real discussion on this... The choice is OBVIOUS! For the Eastern capitol of Amazon, it has to be Constantinople!

Hey all: Anybody else play poker here? I do play from time to time. The Motorcity Casino now has a "bad beat" jackpot of about $800k. Their poker room is constantly packed. They took out some slot machines to add more poker tables! Their "bad beat" jackpot is the largest I've ever seen or heard of, and I've been playing for about 15 years. There are many, many places to legally play poker in & around Detroit & the midwest. I find a lot of concepts from poker can be applied to investing. Any thoughts?

Hey all: Another good example is that foreign nationals can own real estate & property in the USA. Why aren't USA citizens allowed to buy real estate in foreign countries? Thailand & Mexico I'm looking at you! I would think free trade would also entail the movement of capital, owning of property and real estate? Once again, USA is wide open, her trading partners are NOT.

I think most people would agree that free trade is good. HOWEVER, I can think of three MAJOR example right off the top of my head of ANYTHING but free trade... Coming back from the gym, I was listening to Michigan NPR...Something I try to do less & less, but the announcer was wailing that if President Trump rescinds the Korea free trade deal, a lot of Michigan won't be able to sell their cheese into Korea....and what a catastrophe that would be for Michigan jobs. That very well may be...I do not know a SINGLE dairy farmer, OR anybody connected to it. Conversely, I know several people who work in auto plants/management for the big 3. I know many others that work at auto parts suppliers...It is cost prohibitive to bring a car manufactured/assembled in the USA to Korea...not impossible, just so expensive as to not make it worth while. We get plenty of Korean autos, and I buy LOTS of SSD drives and computer memory manufactured in Korea (Samsung). Why won't Korea let us sell them cars on a reasonable playing field? How much cheese does it take to equal the value of 1 auto/truck? Same thing for Thailand. I had a friend who wanted to bring Corvettes/Cadillac CTS-V's to Thailand. It was relatively simple arranging the freight...slightly more burdensome filling out all the paperwork...almost impossible to overcome the 200% tariff on auto imports. Thailand sends the USA plenty of Seagate hard drives....why can't America sell autos to Thailand with little or no tariffs? How are EITHER of these two examples of free trade? Why does the "cheese farmer" get preferential treatment/representation from the USA government and the auto industry does not?

I would have to disagree that the politicians (in the USA) have done a reasonably good job of handling the trade situation. Witness the election of Donald Trump in the USA. Part of his message/appeal is that the USA has done terribly in the trade deals and he is going to try and rework them. You can NOT believe the support he has in the Midwest of the USA. I know for a fact that there is a good chunk of Union members that traditionally vote Democrat, broke ranks and voted for him. Some of these guys are also alienated from the Democrat's policy of moving from the working class to "identity politics". Another example is that it is VERY expensive difficult to export cars to S. Korea, Thailand, and other Asian countries who the USA does a great of business with. If the USA is taking finished autos & auto parts, should it not be relatively easy to send cars to these countries? I've worked in the electronics field for many years...and it is a similar situation there...though not as bad as it is with autos. The midwest has simply been decimated in terms of jobs. It is a very complicated situation as to how it has happened...but a lot of people here think the USA has gotten the short end of the stick in trade deals.

Hey all: One way I've been generating ideas for decades is to use Value Line. I use it in a few different ways... Obviously, I use it to keep track/research companies that I own or am interested in. Take it a step further....Value Line has a one page overview of 90+ industries (autos, retail, mining, restaurants, etc.) That is a GREAT way to get an overview and to see kind of what the industry does in terms of sales, profitability, etc. Then look at the other competitors in the industry. How does your target company compare? Many a time I was doing research on a target company and found a BETTER competitor. Conversely, you can find worse competitors too. Sometimes, you might come to the conclusion that an entire industry is a "dog", or maybe a great place to be. So I think doing comparative research is a great way to generate new ideas...

This line of reasoning may be correct...the one big problem I see is that is great to have the rule in place, but will Japanese managers act on it? They are NOTORIOUS for being conservative and hidebound. Will management want to break up the conglomerates? I don't know...

Hey all: I would like to ask this board a question regarding COMMERCIAL property tax rates where you guys are located, or have knowledge of. MY CONTENDER IS HARPER WOODS MI at 5.4% I am located near Detroit MI. I own some residential & commercial property. In my experience, commercial property taxes are ALWAYS higher than residential. I own both types of property here in Michigan. I am looking to acquire some more. In my research, I've come across a city in Michigan that has an unusually high property tax rate. So high, I would argue that it is SEVERELY impairing the value of property and acts as a discouragement to trading/formation of property. The city in question is Harper Woods MI. They have a commercial property tax rate of close to 5.5% of the "true market value" of a property. Thus, if the property you own is worth $100,000 on the market, the property tax is going to be something like $5,400. In effect, this is like a mortgage that can never be paid off. Another risk is that in the future, what do you wish to bet that property taxes will go UP? What is the ratio of raises to reductions? If you wished to buy a commercial property as an rational, sane investment, you would have to do the following: A). pay property taxes- 5.5% B). pay repairs/depreciation- 4% C). property management 2% D). mortgage 6% E). OWNER PROFIT 6%? So you are looking at having a "cost of capital" of something like 23 or 24%, and even that might be a bit low? So a property that has a rent roll of $100k a year, might be worth $400k or $425 on the market? The above assumptions don't factor into whether the real estate market is going up/down. I would think over a long time frame, the value of property goes DOWN. So my question to the board members, what is the highest commercial property tax rate that you've encountered?

RB: My posting is naive? May I suggest that your suggestion we take a "chill pill" is what is naive. The situation in N. Korea is now entering a new phase. Something needs to be done and quickly. There are several problems with N. Korea that I almost never hear being discussed... A). N. Korea doesn't need a huge arsenal of nukes to do a tremendous amount of damage. They only need a few. An attack could be incredibly effective if they simply send one of the continental USA and start with an EMP burst. This would damage the electrical grid immensely. Absolute ruin. B). There have been reports that N. Korea is hosting Iranian nuclear scientists & technicians. This is a win-win for BOTH countries. N. Korea gets desperately needed foreign currency (wonder how Iran got all that?) and Iran can continue to work on their nuclear program under the radar. There have also been rumors that other countries are also involved...but there is no doubt Iran is working with N. Korea. As time progresses, I am absolutely sure N. Korea is going to spread the technology. C). N. Korea was willing to let MILLIONS of their own citizens starve to death. Millions more of their citizens are in prison camps. Almost everybody in that country is in abject poverty. If they are willing to kill/let die their own citizens, what would they do USA/Japan/S. Korea/others? Heck, Kin Jon Un had his own half brother killed. D). They've got almost nothing left to lose. E). They keep telling the world how they'll attack USA, turn Washington DC to ashes, and on & on. At some point, you've got to take them at their word. F). At some point, there is likely to be another nuclear arms race with Japan, S. Korea and others (Iran gets bomb, so does Saudi Arabia & others)? Heck, bring China in on the action. Put the pressure on them...big time pressure. Of course, China is propping up the N. Koreans, probably even prodding them along. As to who to blame, Obama gets some of the blame, so does Bush, and of course the Clintons. At this point it does not matter who did what in the past, N. Korea needs to be dealt with.

It appears that pornography, usb sticks, DVD's, and US currency is very popular in N. Korea. Popular even in the military according to the Vice documentary. Maybe this propaganda campaign works, maybe it does not...but it is certainly much cheaper than going to war. If it does NOT work, we can always go to war at a future date? Why not try everything possible first short of going to war?

I had not seen that...but it is similar to what I had seen a year or so ago. What is N. Korea going to do? Complain that we are sending money, rice, snacks, electronics for free to their country? You could REALLY saturate N. Korea by having boats launch balloons off their coasts. I would be a PERFECT sabotage campaign. Have the government of USA & S. Korea "strongly denounce" the balloon launches, but what can we do? We are not a police state! OR, in the alternative, have the Western government openly support it. Who but the N. Koreans could oppose it?

Hey all: The N. Korea situation is finally starting to heat up & get some attention. Unfortunately, it looks like it could go the WRONG way and a lot of people get hurt... Any way that you look at it, it is a difficult situation. I am shocked that N. Korea is not already at the maximum level of sanctions...If the N. Korean regime was willing to let MILLIONS of their citizens starve in the 90's, I doubt they will be phased by anything short of a total blockade. The Chinese would probably cheat on that anyway... I heard an interesting way to deal with them...one that I had not heard anywhere else...and am thinking that maybe it might just actually work... Instead of military strikes OR embargoes & sanctions....be totally open with N. Korea. Allow their citizens to have a welcome in other countries....Flood N. Korea with balloons carrying dollar bills, USB sticks, pamphlets, small luxury items, food, etc. Put in small sections from newspapers showing prices of food, electronics, cars, etc. Kind of like a Sunday advertisement supplement in newspapers. I have seen videos on the YouTube showing that various S. Korean civilian & religious organizations are doing this...but they don't really have adequate resources. What if the various groups got government backing and ramped up their efforts 100x? Show them that one of the problem in USA is that people are eating TOO MUCH. That the average home in USA, Canada, England, Germany, Korea, etc. has 42" lcd tv, has 100+ channels, can have pizza delivered in 30 MINUTES OR LESS! Put the scientists to work to develop internet capable satellite phones. Drop 500 of those a day, every day in N. Korea. Phones that can also dial out to numbers in S. Korea, numbers in the west, can call anywhere...can watch S. Korean soap operas, can watch movies, and so on. Show them the "West" has no beef with individual N. Koreans, ask them to join us... Kind of like what this guy is advocating: https://capitalistexploits.at/2017/08/common-sense-way-get-rid-kim-jong-un/ Just think, in bulk, every balloon care package might cost $500? 100 of them a day is $50k, that is LESS than the price of one "smart" bomb...Run that campaign for a 1,000 days and that is just $50mm! That would be LESS than the price of one or two days of war... Might be something to consider. Very cheap option, and at least we made a serious effort to avoid death & destruction.

I can totally relate to your story... A few years ago when I was living in Houston, I had an associate that I knew reasonably well. Every month he would have an expense account to take out "business associates & prospects". I would never be one of his prospects, as we were in totally different businesses/spheres, but he was nice & took me to one of these lunches one day. Towards the end of lunch the topic of discussion turned to making money/investing. My host admitted to me that he had not made any retirement investments...and he was AT LEAST 10 years older than I was. At that time, I was working on evaluating CLWY and was almost finished. I told him about it, and I thought the stock could TRIPLE or even more in the long term. He furrowed his brow and queried, just how long do you think it will take to go up? I responded it was hard to tell, but probably in about 18 months? Maybe a bit less, maybe a bit more? The interesting thing was that the Houston real estate locations were worth MORE than the market cap of the company at the time, quite a bit more. I was very excited about it and was buying along with family members...I said it was very rare to come across a situation like this. My associate thanked me, but he would need to make a good return before he could invest anything for retirement. I was surprised that this would not be sufficient. What would he consider acceptable? Something like a 10X return...or more... Needless to say, he never invested in CLWY, and the funny thing is that it is up like 8X in 5 years? As of a couple of years ago, he never invested in anything, and has never set up a retirement account. Heck, this guy might even be interested in 10% a month returns...just not lucrative enough! I am sure there are many, many, many people like him out there!

Hey all: My apologies for not updating this thread like I said I would. I fully plan to make some very interesting updates in the days to come. I have learned some SHOCKING things since the last update that I made. Some things that have shaken me to the core. I will share a couple of them today, and perhaps the 3rd one at a future date. A). When I was in high school & undergraduate, I lived in a co-op along the Detroit River. This is a high rise building that is just under 20 stories high. It is a very nice building, with a manned desk 24 hrs. a day, access to the property is controlled through a manned guard shack. The building is a "luxury" building with a heated pool, restaurant, grocery, gift shop, beauty salon, work out room in the base of the building. There is heated parking (important in Detroit) with a valet along with "regular" parking in a parking structure or lot. The building is on right on the Detroit River with spectacular views of it, Belle Isle, Canada, and downtown Detroit. My Dad lived there and owned a few units for about 20 years. He might have lost a small amount when he sold & moved back around 2006 or so...in 2008, the market collapsed and the co-op had trouble. A few years ago, the vacancy rate went to around 35% or so. This would have been 2015? It got to the point where a few units were given back to the board. The owners simply had moved on/passed away, and no longer wished to pay the monthly association fees. So they simply gave the unit(s) back and received a release from future payments. THAT IS IT! Units were worth almost nothing... Keep in mind, that if this were in NYC or LA, or other major cities, the units might be million dollar places. The location is A+...the building is solid with luxury amenities... Fast forward to today and the occupancy rate is close to 100%, about 98% to be exact. Units are now being resold for actual money. Prices are not high...but have come back substantially. When I heard that units were being given away in 2015, I figured there a real possibility of a death spiral in the building. With a vacancy rate of 35%+ the remaining owners monthly association fees went up SUBSTANTIALLY. It would be very unappealing to potential buyers... HOWEVER, the market has turned, I thought there was a good chance it never would. There are vacant buildings very close to this building. It is very KRAZY that this situation even exists, as it is right on the river and about 5 minutes from downtown. So that situation has turned around completely!!!!!!! Situation number two is that there is now a commercial tenant in my Dad's old office building! It was sold in 2006 to a "developer" that never really managed to develop it until a couple of weeks ago. It sat vacant for 10+ years...the neighborhood has gone down TREMENDOUSLY. Many of the liquor stores have shut down. You KNOW things are bad in Detroit when even the liquor stores are shutting down! There are many burned out houses in the area. Further down the street there have been some marijuana stores opening/attempting to open. THIS IS A VERY ROUGH AREA, even for Detroit. The tenant is a hair salon, and there are TONS of those in the area, and it is probably a low quality tenant...but they are in there and have a chance. The first tenant in 10+ years. There are still lots of vacancies and failed businesses, but there a few NEW businesses. Perhaps that neighborhood is having green shoots and starting to turn around? I never thought it would. Finally, I saw a deal that was probably even better than the one I got...but that story is for another time.

Fees are indeed high on real estate transactions....but you can counter that a little bit. Don't like the real estate agent's fees? Either negotiate to lower them OR don't use them and sell it yourself. You are not required to use an agent... Don't like mortgage origination fees or PMI insurance? Simply pay cash. As to attorney's fees/and or title insurance...those increase with the value of the property because the liability of the lawyer goes up. Different liability for a $50k house vs. a million dollar house...

Whut whut??? You should have added a button for "Russians"! How could there not be a button for Russians???? Maybe that is part of their nefarious plan?

Hey all: There is simply NO QUESTION IN MY MIND that we are far into the economic cycle. The best example of this that I can think of is that real estate in & around Detroit has actually gone UP! In this area, real estate usually goes DOWN over long periods of time. On the radio, I hear ads for "Trading Academy", daytrade your way to financial freedom! Or the 3 stooges advertising "Get Rich Quick using leverage in real estate!". I have been to "Meet UP" groups for business and real estate and am simply shocked at some of the people that I bump into. A lot of these people have no experience, no capital, no financial/business education, believe everything they hear, are looking for rentals in Detroit at a GREAT cap rate of 12%. A good chunk of these people are "hipsters" coming in from NYC, LA and other spots on the coast, and they are going to GET RICH QUICK! How can you go wrong buying a brick house for $40K? How can real estate be so cheap in Detroit/MI? One of the things these guys/gals don't get is that the house they are buying for $40k was bought 2/3 years ago for $10k and the LOCAL guy put in some capital ($8k?) and some sweat equity and is now selling out to anxious newbies. Well, these guys & gals are going to get an edukation! That is for sure.... The only problem is that the cycle can keep going for a while...another 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? We'll see!

Hey all: Hard to say what causes/triggers a 25% drop... Could be one too many interest rate increases. Could be a student loan implosion. Could be politically related. Perhaps problems with President Trump? A resignation or impeachment? Coup detat? Civil war in the USA? Other, unforeseen political problems in USA? Congress is not exactly effective NOR do they enjoy confidence from the average American citizen. External problems? North Korea, Russia, China? A major terrorist attack? A major hacking problem with internet/infrastructure? Trade issues? Problems with NAFTA? Problems with China? Surely there will be a major drop...only question is when.

Is that true though? I thought Circuit City went bankrupt long before Radio Shack. In fact unless I'm remembering incorrectly Best Buy had more to do with killing Circuit City than Amazon. I seem to remember Circuit City went bankrupt twice? I seem to remember going to a local Circuit City during/shortly after their bankruptcy and not being able to get any bargains...That would have been in the mid to maybe late 90's? That might have been before AMZN was even in existence, certainly before they made any significant traction into electronics sales.

I also time-travelled back to the 1800s and tried to buy bitcoin, but the Amsterdam folks were all talking tulips to me... Oh wait... NVM. 8) You know what Abraham Lincoln said about the interweb? "Don't believe everything you see on the interwebs!" -Abraham Lincoln

Hey all: Just to be perfectly clear...I'm not saying that women CAN'T be good investors OR that they CAN'T be good with money OR that they CAN'T be good attorneys. Of course some of them can...I'm just saying I personally have not seen that many. That also appears to be reflected on this board...not a single poll respondent has identified themselves as being female...

The other thing I forgot to mention/bring up in that reply was that of the people (attorneys) I know who are HUNDREDS of thousands in debt from student loans tend to be women. There are certainly lots of male attorneys who have large amounts of debt...but the ones who have TOTALLY wrecked lives, living at home with their parents (in their mid to late 30's), and no way out, have tended to be women. Perhaps that has something to do with the number of people enrolled in higher education tending to be women at this point. I would posit that these women are somewhat behind the curve and are being taken advantage of...

I wonder if there are even any women that post here regularly. In my personal life, I've met VERY few women that invest, almost none. I have met plenty of women that simply have no concept of economics, investing or much "money sense" and this included female attorneys that I've worked with. Additionally, some of the attorneys in the worst possible positions imaginable have all been women (with one notable exception). An example...one female attorney knew I was an investor and wanted to know how/what to invest in. She said she was intrigued by penny stocks, as she got a lot of emails on those and couldn't lose too much money. I replied that I knew of a little known, little traded telecommunications that payed a 9% dividend and might go up in value (NORSB). Back then it was trading in the low 50's per share. That price literally took her breath away and she asked what was the minimum investment....I replied whatever you are comfortable with. I'm thinking maybe $1k or $2k...something like that (25 or 50 shares). She was thinking something LESS than 1 share!!!!!! Oh, the stories I could tell about female attorneys...

Hello: I believe that I have every modern edition...including the bank manuals. If there is a particular company you are interested in, I would be happy to scan it and make a PDF for you. I bought most of mine off of Ebay. I noticed that the versions I got off of Ebay came out of libraries.

This should be a fairly easy process. A lot is going to depend on what market you are in. In the Detroit area, Houston, NC, Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, NYC and a few other markets, there are HORDES of un/underemployed attorneys shuffling about. It is not quite the "zombie apocalypse" it was a few years ago...but it is still bad. So go to a couple few other firms and tell them you are not satisfied with the price/service you are getting. What can they do? If you are doing fairly routine (low or mid level)work, most firms are simply going to jump at taking new business. If you are doing very high value, VERY high end work, you might have a problem. If that is the case, take your low & mid-level work somewhere else. I would also simply tell your current firm their price is simply not acceptable. What are they going to do? Say "no" to paying work? Word is only slowly starting to get out about this...but there are TENS of thousands too many attorneys. Prices are coming down and WILL be coming down in the future. The law field is simply a dumpster fire...complete and utter devastation. That is why law skewl enrollment is down, and so many skewls have been sued by disgruntled graduates. I know a "boutique" law firm in the Carolinas. A couple of years ago, one of their partners was regaling me with a story about how his ingenious secretary built a "special contraption" to hold all the resumes that were being mailed in. I said, "I didn't know you were hiring". He replied that they were not hiring and DID NOT have an open position. They simply got hundreds of unsolicited resumes from desperate graduates and attorneys. So let us know how you do!