John Hjorth

Soo right - +1.

SAN [the large chunk of the position, that I bought at Brexit Day - sold at 5.80, bought at 3.88].

Added to SCHO.CPH this morning.

longinvestor, It could be mice also - they are also extremely reproductive! I remember a post from you on this board about 1 - 2 years ago, where you posted - with reference to the BRK cash flow : "Just follow the money!" - In short: We are all "money dogs", with the nose in the track - for money! 1. I expect earnings and cash flow to stay relatively at this level [2016 level] untill next major aquisition makes a change, 2. Perhaps a major dent on the way forward short term related to Cat Insurance, 3. Economic consequenses of political US hot topics must be expected for BRK [Global trade, corporation taxes etc.] I have absolutely no clue where this will end up. 4. The possibility of a US or global recession. Again, I have no clue. 5. Nuclear event to destroy material value at BRK. Again, I have no clue. - - - o 0 o - - - Not much different from what I'm thinking about what else I've poured money into. - - - o 0 o - - - You're welcome, Valuehalla.

Valuehalla, The source is the Annual Reports on the BRK website. Just grab the 2016 Annual Report, and in the cash flow statement you find the figures for 2016, 2015 and 2014, then you grab the 2013 Annual Report, where you get the figure for 2013, 2012 and 2011, then on to the 2010 Annual Report for the next three years, and so on. Please note that these figures are after taxes paid, i.e. not including deferred taxes expensed in the income statement. Over time, I have found that studying the income statement [result of the capital allocation] including movements in book equity, combined with study of the cash flow statement [the capital allocation] is more rewarding towards understanding what's going on in BRK. The balance sheet naturally matters still for details and certain posts in the balance sheet.

Longhaul, I don't like these airline investments either ... - but honestly: Does it really matter in the whole picture? - To me, this is just a pretty thing, -with a few freckles ... - and there will most likely be more of them as time goes by. To me, over time, the balance sheet has become less and less relevant for valuation of this thing. Everybody on this board should by now know that by just reading the board, that there are material hidden values on both sides of the BRK balance sheet - some easy to quantify, others not. This behemoth has been built by two extraordinary brilliant men, who have been practically all in in this investment the most of their adult life. It's built to generate cash - the more, the merrier - to do new aquisitions. It's an enormous compounding machine. Period. And it certainly - by no mean - has lost it's momentum. Facts: Cash flow from operating activities this century [uSD B]: 2000: 2.947 2001: 6.574 2002: 11.135 2003: 8.438 2004: 7.405 2005: 9.446 2006: 10.195 2007: 12.550 2008: 11.252 2009: 15.846 2010: 17.895 2011: 20.476 2012: 20.950 2013: 27.704 2014: 32.010 2015: 31.491 2016: 32.525 Total: 278.839 [<- ~USD 279 B!] - - - o 0 o - - - I haven't checked - perhaps XOM to some extent can compete with this ... AAPL was most likely too young and too small at the beginning of the century to come even just close. - - - o 0 o - - - Yes, all the cash and T-bills is a drag right now, also. Somebody is just waiting for the next turmoil to arrive - spending the time having fun doing HBO stuff and the likes..."The market is down today, so my wife just gave me coins to my 1.89 breakfast at McD, not for my 3.21 breakfast" [or something like that] - Hilarious.

Thanks, Valuehalla, and so far, so good. : - ) And: Yes, that's the real point here, as duly noted by you above: Within the last specific 11 calendar years, the gap between book value and market value has actually shrinked - not widened!

I agree with you on your calculations and methology, Valuehalla, My basis for calculation: Progress numbers on the inside of the front cover of the 2016 Annual Report. According to those figures USD 100.00 of book value year end 2015 has grown to USD 289.92 of book value at year end 2016. Putting that into the Excel IRR function gives you an IRR of 10.16 per cent over those specific 11 years. Acid test: Book value per A share end of year 2005: USD 59,377 [Annual report 2005, p. 55] Book value per A share end of year 2016: USD 172,108 [Annual report 2016, p.32] Putting those figures into Excel IRR function gives you an IRR of 10.153 per cent. - - - o 0 o - - - With regard to market price progress, I get an IRR of 9.63 per cent over those specific 11 years. [<- Important: Lower than per share book value progress!] Please check you calculations.

Valuehalla, Have you applied simple avarage calculation or Internal Rate of Return in your post?

Added a bit to BRK.B today.

Christopher P. Bloomstran, Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC, released a new Client Letter on 12th February 2017 with the title: "Symphaty for the Dog - 2016 Letter to Clients: Challenging Dogma, Death of the Profit Margin, and a (Brief) Berkshire Redux". [longinvestor linked to it in the recent BRK IV topic on this board - thanks!]. It is - like the 2015 Client Letter discussed earlier in this topic - at least to me, a very good read for BRK investors, and also very entertaining!: Just an example here as an appetizer: p. 5: To me, that actually gave me association as being the best description I have seen for how I have felt while reading the last two books from Mr. Taleb! - Without implying other similarities to any extent! And from what I have read so far of Mr. Talebs next book "Skin in the Game", that does not appear to be much different. - - - o 0 o - - - There are a lot of interesting topics covered in the Semper Augustus 2016 Client Letter - BRK-related and general. Perhaps we could continue discussing the Letter in this topic. - - - o 0 o - - - My take on this, based on these two Semper Augustus Letters: I will start buying BRK again, after a break of about a half year, based on the prevailing market conditions, and the recent relationship between market price and intrinsic value of BRK.

It hasen't - to my best recollection - been discussed, from this particular angle, since the release of the annual letter and the 2016 annual report and all the talk about fees: It's the "badly hidden agenda" of Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger: "Why are you paying all those fees?! - Just send us your money! - by buying BRK stock - We'll manage them - almost - for free."

Why not, Valuehalla? The income [net] from holding the insurance float at about USD 100 B at the moment is included in the insurance results multiplied with a P/E, thereby putting a net present value on holding the insurance float. The listed investments are primarily held by the insurance subsidiaries, financed by float, so the listed investments and the insurance operation are two separate sides of the same operation. Furthermore, this two column calculation of IV does not include a discount on deferred taxes booked in the balance sheet as a liability of approx. USD 78 B. That is calculated as if it had to be paid 1st Januar 2017, however nobody knows when or if it will ever come due.

I read that as a compliment, CorpRaider! [-despite I most likely shoulden't...] ; - )

Yes, it also sounded to me like this basket of airline stocks was for the long term for BRK [to the contrary to a "generally undervalued" trade]. Time will naturally tell.

Personally, I have the same perception ... - somehow it's a shift in his investment universe, so I think he is actually trying to elaborate on his line of thinking. It actually reminds me about an interview some years ago, when he was building/had build [?] the IBM stake, and he in an interview answered to the usual question : Something along this: "Do you care to share what you are buying nowadays?", to which he just hinted : "HAL."

Mr. Buffett on CNBC this morning - a series of small clips, among them comments about buying more AAPL in 2017, and some comments from Mr. Buffett about the Unilever offer.

Just for info, Mr. Buffet's fee message has actually been all over the place also on this side of the pond. Boersen.dk - Top story on main page this Sunday morning: Buffett: Shareholders have wasted USD 100 B trying to beat the market.

Ref. the posts earlier in this topic from among others rb and Jurgis I have been speculating about, if the added sentence to #11 in the owners manual could actually be a hint about the airline positions not been long term.

ValueMaven, Book value per share ["raw" - without adjustments] for B is : 172,108/1,500 = 114.74 [for reference, please see p. 34 in the 2016 AR] Market price at Friday closing: 170.22, so it's trading at 1.48 x BV. Soft buy back treshold : 137.69 [114.74 x 1.2]. So it's trading 23.6 per cent above soft buy back treshold. [[[[170.22 - 139.69]/137.69] *100] percent].

Yes, Valuehalla. [i get 120.04, to be specific - immaterial diff].

At least to me, most likely also to other board members, this is a great question, Ballinvarosig Investors, For my part, this is about: 1. If you just hand over your capital to some other indexing market participant, your capital - most likely - actually ends up as "lemming capital" - with all the consequenses of that, including a fee charged, 2. Most likely, some part of your capital, will be invested against your will and your wishes. And if this is about material amounts of money, this will haunt you, and reduce your quality of life, going forward. Or even worse, family money involved in this game, which is actually worse than other peoples money involved. 3. Make sure your "no guaranties" is actually understood by everybody involved. - They are just coattailing you! - That has to be understood!

Thanks a lot, redskin & aws, That actually skipped my attention. The accounting treatment is actually material here.

redskin, What's your actual basis [Annual Report 2016] for posting this?

writser, It is actually much more complicated than that: This topic is only for those in the know and those invested in BRK and it goes like this: "Have you sinned" recently [sold BRK]. We sit on three-legged stools in a circle wearing white robes and thongs [like ?][some of us even wearing large yellow hats at the session], and if anyone has sinned, they must confess their sins, then there is distribution of Rhohypnoles to suppress the unwanted propensity for those with that need. Being a BRK investor isen't that easy.