Spekulatius

I would have to look into this a bit more and while I share some of Johns concern regarding the debt in the AG sector, in the EU (and elsewhere), the Farmers tendnto get bailed out or at least a collapse (from drought or other external) factors alleviate. I seriously doubt that Danish banks will suffer substantially, but I admit they I haven’t done enough research on it. I think Danske is well worth looking into, as well as Lloyd (LYG) once it is clear how the Brits will exit out of the EU.

This makes vet greatly undermines his credibility’s. Then there is Telecom Italia (which I own as well, but at lower prices than his entry I think) which is looking sickly and where his tactic seems ineffective.

I grew up in an economically depressed area in Germany. There were no jobs locally, so you just have to move someplace else. Despite having virtually full employment and plenty of jobs, some people are nevertheless unemployed, because they just don’t want or can’t move out of the area. This is the case in many areas in the US, but traditionally the mobility in the US has been higher than in Europe and I believe Canada as well. When you think of it in terms of landmass, you can’t get a decent job in 95% if the US. Are you still in Germany? Would be very interesting to hear your thoughts on the current economic situation and how you see the Eur going forward. Thanks. I have lived in the US for 20 years, but the rest of my family lives there and I have contacts and visited a couple of time recently, so I know what is going on. The economy is doing great and there is virtually full employment, no problem whatsoever except insome pockets in East Germany perhaps. The biggest issue is immigration - there are about 1 Million refugeees in Germany, many with a checkered background, as far as one call tell. This is way higher than what most consider the “load bearing capacity” to integrate in the society. And it has really upset many people and Kanzlerin Merkel is (rightfully IMO) blamed for the debacle. Because the two major went into a frat coalition to keep in power many people feel that voting for either one accomplishes nothing, so now we have the right win populist party in the upswing (Afd) just like in other parts of Europe. I have no idea how this will work out but I do think we will see some. changes in the political landscape.

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I grew up in an economically depressed area in Germany. There were no jobs locally, so you just have to move someplace else. Despite having virtually full employment and plenty of jobs, some people are nevertheless unemployed, because they just don’t want or can’t move out of the area. This is the case in many areas in the US, but traditionally the mobility in the US has been higher than in Europe and I believe Canada as well. When you think of it in terms of landmass, you can’t get a decent job in 95% if the US.

I own all four of these... do we know each other? ;) BLX in particular very interesting here. I am having high hopes for Cuervo.mx. It could be a strong LT compounder. very Little Tequila is consumed outside the US and Mexico, there are high hurdles, since the Algave plant only grows in a certain region in Mexico to be used for Tequila and the US and Mexico itself are still growth markets as well.

Thelads, Great post! HY with it’s record low spreads and probably lose covenants is probably the biggest bubble out there and the EM‘s are part of it. The EM debt seems particularly dangerous given how capital can move in and out of them. In fact EM‘s can easily become a roach motel. At some point, very interesting deals will be available.

I did something similar on a first date when I was a freshman in college. Made sense to me because as a college student I didn't have a lot of money. Never got to a second date. I blame it on the coupon and nothing else! It’s natural selection at work. if she can get past it, she is keeper!

I bought a pizza on my first date with my future wife. I even used to coupon to bring the price down further. It’s was much less than $50 as well. Come to think about it, she did mention the use of a coupon a couple of time later on. So, I think using the coupon to bring down the price by $4 or thereabouts wasn’t a good idea.

About the writer: Enough said.... That's how you refute his arguments? He is a she. I doubt you read that nonsense she wrote, you just googled it and threw it out here. I at least read enough to conclude that she has an agenda and no qualification. She complains about FB taking her page down, because as you know, the conspiracy runs deep.

About the writer: Enough said....

The fact that it’s dangerous shorting Momo stocks is nothing new - people got killed shorting yahoo and other internet stocks in 1999, even though the valuations were ridiculous. any short seller worth it’s salt knows that shorting just based on valuation is dangerous and really not recommended. In the case of Einhorn, I would say that hs shorts were ill chosen and even worse his longs too. timing was bad and in many cases, he clearly didn’t understand the circumstances - one example his recent buy of Bayer (BAYN.DE) where he didn’t really understand the merger implications, (had no clue about the lawsuits), ignored that Bayer overpaid and didn’t understand that gene manipulated foods are considered toxic in Europe and the investor base may not like the merger especially either. This to me is just shoddy research.

It’s not just his shorts, his longs are bad too. Delta Lloyd, BAYN.DE, BHF etc. while the jury on BHF is still out, his entry was quite bad and it’s clear that he depth in research stocks appears to be quite shallow.

I'd be curious to see how many more years it'll take before he admits that his strategy is totally flawed and he initially performed well only by luck. :) I don’t think his early performance was all luck, but maybe it played a role. I think he has changed, he doesn’t have the same drive or thoroughness or intellectual honesty any more that he used to have 15 years ago or so, when he got started.

Valueandopportunity is my favorite blog: https://valueandopportunity.com

ING is down 4% today to $12.8 - any idea what the cause might be. There was news about a fine for money laundering (~780M€), but that was a coupe of days ago. LYG trades at 58p now with tangible book at 53p. That’s a stock I set my eye on, since it’s a good franchise, IMO. I do think that a hard Brexit is now quite likely and Gb will probably go into a recession after that. Bank stocks are basically macro bets, so I am not sure we are “there” yet.

Yep. Since one Peso ~1/19 USD, the market cap is $5.4B. Salud!

My personal threshold to buy more is around $500 USD. My recent adds in the insurance sector were RE (at ~1.05 x tangible book) and BRK.B at $185

My recents adds were BLX, CUERVO.MX, TI A and FB.

It’s one thing that he shirts don’t work in a bull market, but it’s quite another that his longs are uncannily mistimed and in a lot of value trap situations.

It's not the first time I've heard Charlie say something scientifically questionable. I think science is his weak spot despite his efforts to be a generalist. It’s very likely the other way around - the Chinese kids got better parents. Adopting kids from China isn’t cheap, so the parents very likely have financial resources. there are also significant background checks. There is a significant selection bias going on on the parent side.

So you think you can make almost 20% being in US stocks 100% consistently? Emerging markets have their issues, but if you get the timing right, you can make outsized returns. Some stocks in Argentina went up 10x in a couple of years, only to lose 80% again.

Overall, I am surprised that people post about small names at all. Posting nanocap on any somewhat widely followed blog and definitely on CoBF will lead to price spike, which is bad for author if author is buying and is somewhat pump-and-dump if author uses the spike to sell. OTOH most of these names are not forever holds, so expecting the author not to sell on the spike is rather silly too. IMO, people should not post about stocks that are less than XX market cap and YY daily volume at all. But of course it's their choice and sometime I benefit from it, so KEEP POSTING. ;D From my experience , it depends on who post and about what. I have seen posts on absolute microcaps that dont trade every week and there was no discernible effect. This was true especially when the shares of said company were expensive ($1000 or more). I am guessing that no one noticed or it wasn’t interesting due to lack of trading. It also depends on who post, I am guessing that some people have alerts set for some bloggers and buy almost anything they is posted about in the hope that most stocks will gather than traction. One example was that a mixrocap bloggers posted about BSND (Boston Sand and Gravel ) on Twitter and thenstock started to move. Given that there are no financials out there, I can only assume, that some people bought this blind, without knowing what they bought. I posted on another board about some microcaps and there was absolutely no movement. I”ll run a test now and post it here : $QUCT FWIW, I think it is Ok to post a about microcaps. If they move up, don’t buy it or wait until they come back down. It’s just a piece of information, nobody forces anyone to act on it.

Bought a bit of BLX ( Pan American trade finance bank) below tangible book and with a nice!7% dividend yield. Bank suffers somewhat from spread contraction and negative perception on EM’s.Asset side looks quite safe though and is mostly US$ based. I also bought some shares in PHH2.DE based on ValueandOpportunity blog post. Well managed and family run German health care company.

You change tires for the winter? :o Yeah, I know my relatives do this in Lithuania where it is required. I think you're the first person I've heard to do this in US. As you know, I live pretty much in the countryside. Quite a few people got winter tires even in LI. I had trouble the first year in my Hyundai to get even up the slightest hills in my “all weather” tires, when the road wasn’t serviced. Our Subaru doesn’t have that problem.