Spekulatius

If a story is interesting, engaging and well written, does it even matter if it is true or not?

A lot of option-ality here.

OG- correct and thanks for the clarification. It makes sense that you can have a clear edge, especially in smaller niches. I don’t think this qualifies asset secret though. I think there are quite a few in this forum right here that have found some flavor of a secret sauce that works for them.

Adding some RE today. This insurance stock is down due to a $250M Reserve adjustment. Not positive for sure, but RE has a decent history on reserving and they take action quickly if needed. Trades at <1.1x book, if memory serves correctly.

What you state might be correct, but If I were pitched participation in a one man shop that does amazing things that none of us have heard about, I would decline.

Added a few shares of long suffering KSB3.DE. Underearning Pump manufacturer controlled by a foundation, but with a very solid balance sheet.

Maybe they are not idiots and want their name showing up on th gofundme website. To what end? So everyone will think that they are idiots? It is preferable to be a famous idiot compared to be a smart nobody. Just look at the talking heads in the tube or the folks running for or being in office.

Maybe they are not idiots and want their name showing up on th gofundme website.

Speaking of emotion, at some point, the impact of any future significant other should be pointed out. even if your niece is financially literate and smart, it does not mean anything, if the signifant other is just the opposite. Then there is the issue with wedding expenses, if it comes to that. They tend to be in the same ballpark than a 20% down payment for a house in the US. That’s a huge opportunity cost if you can only do one of the above. I think it is important to point this out. You niece will probably roll her eyes right there.

Same cautions and warnings were said before the Olympics in Sochi. Turned out to be bunk for it as well. Very friendly, welcoming people. Their driving and queuing system, however, took a bit to get used to. Plus Baltika is a pretty good beer. I have generally found this to be true just about everywhere and I have been to some not so commonly travelled places. Authorities can be a different matter though.

I didn’t feel the World Cup was that great , although it wasn’t bad either. I did notice empty seats in some of the games past the round #1.

I agree on starting with credit card debt. It seems strange, but a lot of Americans don’t get the concept of “interest rates”, they think in terms of payments and if they can afford it. I would probably start there and explain what interest rate compounding really means. We all know that compounding interest is important to accumulate wealth, but the inversion of this is high interest rate debt (mostly CC debt), so it is an important pitfall to avoid.

I am adding to TI-A. I am not even sure what caused the downdraft today.

the purported reason they're waiting isn't to get a better set up - it is to maintain power for the ensuing 2 years and then use it. if the enact reform prior to the midterms, they'll ruffle lots of feathers... so waiting post mid-terms allows them runway. Or in other words -the investment thesis here is „Hope springs eternal“

I found Howard Marks book unremarkable too. I know he is revered here, but I really didn‘t get much from his book, other than the idea to think about where we are in a cycle. Even with respect to the latter, it might just be better not to think about cycles at all and look at all Investments case by case and forget about the large picture.

That one is overdue for a distribution cut.

Those are good points, backed by historical Berkshire facts, Cardboard, I would add Munich Re to your list. Very few people learn from their own mistakes. Even fewer people learn from the mistakes of others. Going back to the thread, WEB tends to convert public holdings into fully owned ones, if he gets the chance. He uses tax free exchanges. He may be a sloth in terms of value realization, but he is not entirely inactive..

I am guessing that the fact that we have not been discovered yet means that the speed of life is very likely is in fact the limit. Too bad, I hoped for hyperspace travel or warp drives to get us moving faster some time down the road.

I agree the optional Amex for $25 per rental (not per day) is a great deal. Primary coverage is key!

Isn’t it far more likely that other civilizations find us than the other way around? It vote for staying low as Stephen Hawkins recommended as no news is good news.

The problem is that the auditors are payed by the company they audit. It creates a high hurdle to discover and report fraud by a company that issues your paycheck essentially. The more natural bias is to “work with them”.

I hear you, but how does the NWS stay intact if the conservatorship ends? Mnuchin has been very vocal about ending the conservatorship on his watch, as has Watt, and the White House (if we're to believe the Mulvaney report). Yes, it is possible that all of them are lying or change their minds. Edit: I didn't word that carefully enough. Watt hasn't said he wants conservatorship ended on his watch, but he has said it can't last forever. It’s simple, the conservatorship won’t end. Mnuchin is just a pawn, he does what he is told, or gets fired, which is something the pres is very good at. The Pres has many other fish to fry. The best chance for investors to get whole is a court decision that forecasters the government hand to do something. Otherwise, it is in the best interest , to keep things exactly how they are. Also what’s $100B, if you are President? Money is fungible, it doesnt matter where it is coming from. If they “find” $100B, it still doesn’t mean they can find it the way they see fit.

Industrievärden looks good to me -~20% discount to NAV and beats the index over the long run.

I agree with most longs here that the risk that the GSE are dismantled is very low. The reason, imo is that the GSE’s have been providing liquidity to the mortgage market for a long time, the system work and messing it up and hurting the housing market is not worth taking. I believe the risk for investors is that the politicians are incentivized to keep thing exactly how they are right now. The NWS is very profitable for the government, so I would not expect it to give it up without an adverse ruling that absolutely forces them to do so.

This tool is very commonly used in dictatorships. Just read Orwell. Those who grew up behind the Iron curtain know this very well.