Spekulatius

Why don't you like MLPs? Is it just the tax implications or are there other issues? I prefer c-Corp over MLP mostly due to ease of dealing with them (no K-1). Energy and even midstream is cyclical and volatile, so one can benefit from buying and selling at the “right time “. MLP are a pain in the butt when dealing with partial sales, distribution recapture etc. Also, 60% + of my assets are in tax deferred accounts, which are no-go for MLP (UBTI concern). I would consider an MLP (and indeed own one) for a long term holding only, preferably something I never intend to sell. I think only EPD is really of high enough quality and even there are rumbling about converting to a c-Corp.

I own some WMB, which I consider undervalued, despite the noise around bankruptcies impacting their G&P operations. I like EPD, but I don’t like dealing with MLP, unless I absolutely have to and I am willing to make a larger and long term commitment. For me PSX is the most interesting as their midstream and chemical business becomes a larger part of their cash stream, yet it still is largely valued as a refiner. it has the Buffet seal of approval (despite the fact that he exited) and their share buybacks truly identify it as a cannibal. In the CC, they mentioned that thy have ~900M annual EBITDA thwt could be dropped down into their MLP. Do this at 10x EBITDA while the stock trades at 7x and we are talking about serious value accreditation.

They are in the 50s. I am very sorry to hear that what seems only mildly uncomforting from our perspective so far, is taking lives.

^ Based on what are you guys buying these stocks and how are you finding those? Look for low price to book and excess cash? I scroll around the the Japan exchange website from time to time and find plenty of cheap looking stocks, but most of them are cigar buts in a sense that nothing much happens and the share price bounces around allow decent exits from time to time. There seem to be some transformational stories, but I haven’t been able to latch onto those before the crowds do? I only own a bit of 4624.T (Isamu Paint) now and poking around some others like 3001.T (real estate Transformation, there is a VIC writeup if I remember correctly) etc. The money is really in transformational stories and I feel like I am at an information disadvantage here.

Bought some odds and ends and a starter in FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport)

For someone like Cenovus, the better way would be to boost the throughput of existing refineries using Capex. Small Subscale refineries are just inefficient for Large companies to operate. Also, if the WCS/WTI differential will be smaller going forward, this refinery would become a liability. US refineries are the best way to invest in shale oil or oil sands. Look at PSX, a first class operator. Buying back 5-10% of their shares every year and paying ~4% dividend.

I doubt that a large company like Cenovus will buy a tiny refinery of 25k throughout. It’s too small to invest much in it (refinery is a business where scale counts). If anyone buys it, it’s going to be a scrappy small operator.

It's great served with a slice of lyme disease. An ad for Corona beer went viral, so to speak.

Yes, IR presentation are helpful, but of course the metrics and the peer group are mostly cherry picked. Then you need to go to these competitors IR presentation so see which one makes sense. That process isn’t that quick any more although one can get some insight.

Atom finance has a “Peer analysis” button they does a decent job finding peers of a rock. yahoo finance used to have a similar thing, but it got lost somehow in one of their remakes. Example: https://atom.finance/quote/GOOGL/peers Atom finance is quickly becoming one of my favor the go to places for research, I use it more than Koyfin. If they only had international stocks...

A clue season Worldwide infects roughly 41M people with 57k death (roughly ), so a 1/730mortality. Just to put things into perspective. The news is certainly scary, but it is well possible that the episode is not much different than a severe flu outbreak. SARS was scary because mortality was high. I don’t think we have reliable numbers from the Soronavirus yet. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact: https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.

Anyone knows what's currently in Rule Breaker portfolio? I believe that Netflix, Shopify and Amazon are in, based on what I heard in their podcast. AMZN and NFLX are their ancient picks - not that this disqualifies them as great picks. Apparently though Rule Breakers have way more picks than the ads seemed to imply. I found this: https://daytradereview.com/motley-fool-rule-breakers-review/ . Seems like a new recommendation every 2 weeks ::). That's way too many Rule Breakers IMO. This also explains why they can claim stratospheric returns on famous stocks: you pick 26 growth stocks a year, you have 260 stocks in 10 years >1/2 of SP500! You gonna have the 10x results on some of them ( here they also claim huge returns on BIDU, TSLA, ISRG: https://www.thestockdork.com/motley-fool-rule-breakers-review/ ). Looking at the 2016-2017 recommendation list, it's mostly known cos. Though perhaps they recommended them earlier than I looked at them. I'd have to look at my (nonexistent :) ) notes to compare. And I can't claim that I bought (substantial) positions in the winning ones. Anyway, it might be a good hunting ground, though I'm not sure I'm gonna subscribe. 8) Well, it is correct that they have a pick every 2 weeks, so they can be 26 picks a year (unless have repeat recommendations which is certainly the case), so it is a wide net as Gregmal correctly stated. I do think they caught some pretty big fish in the past, so to me, the MF Rulebreaker or Stockadvisor seems like a pretty good starting point. It seems they based on the review site you posted, the Stockadvisor actually has outperformed the Rulebreaker. I personally never had been much of a growth investor, but have been thinking about changing my approach a bit (call it New Years resolution!) and while I probably could find and figure out all these stocks myself, it is probably more efficient to have someone else present a bunch of predigested opportunities to me. I am thinking of subscribing.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead. While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about! Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock. APT is also a bit interesting Well some traders have noticed. however, the business has been around forever and has gone nowhere. most or the revenue is related to construction. Of course 3M is so large that there isn’t much real exposure either, but I notice that the brand recognition caused the stock to be relatively strong on an otherwise down day. My own bet will probably be on the rebound of some travel related stocks like airlines or hotels. I am watching IHG for the latter, which is a well run asset light hotel international franchise business.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead. While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about! Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

Anyone knows what's currently in Rule Breaker portfolio? I believe that Netflix, Shopify and Amazon are in, based on what I heard in their podcast.

Thanks for sharing and welcome to the board. Your notes look great. My best ideas “where the fish are”: Equity stubs - if the business is stable or growing even slowly, they should work out, especially in today’s low interest and low spread environment Motley fools rule breaker portfolio seems to have a lot of multibaggers. I don’t know their hit rate, but they are defining onto something, imo.

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA. Added to my small starter holding on today’s Mr. markets hissy fit after the earnings release at $22 and below. Anyone know what this drop as about? I looked at the earnings numbers and they seemed fine to me. Anyways, it’s a relatively cheap stock and a decent business in today’s overpriced market. Book value is $20, so I buy this for 1.1x book. I have seen cheaper, but also way more expensive. I used to follow the company, but it dropped of my radar after it took many years to work through the aftermath of the financial crisis.

I use margin very sparingly for extraordinary opportunities. I would also limit myself to perhaps no more than 20% of my portfolio and reduce it as quickly as possible. Berkshire May have a lot of cash, but it has had several 50% drops during its trading history, so a 2:1 margin could definitely wipe you out, regardless of the fact that Berkshire ultimately was fine.

I think Paycom has GAAP profits while the other one don’t. It’s a nice and well run company, but the multiple is very rich, as you correctly pointed out.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. It shouldn't be too difficult to raise money (they've already done some licensing deals - one with a Japanese major and they also got some funds from CF foundation). Their Ph 3 results for Lenabasum should most likely be great (their Ph2 data and recent hiring shows they are prepping for approval) - out in a few months. Stock is ripping. Up 60% since this above discussion. Funnily i discovered this stock from a podcast where a healthcare VC with a great track record was pounding the table on it like crazy. I assume this VC was Jeff Arnold in “Angel Invest Boston” podcast. that’s a great podcast and I subscribed to it. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angel-invest-boston/id1180248689?i=1000442790546

I heard this on the radio and made a note to follow up. I mean, Australia seems to be doing it so why not US? He did say we are importing deflation so as long as you don't import too much of it or too little, things will stay as is. Maybe, this time is different :). On a more serious note, I'm having hard time identifying excesses. Everyone around me (and I get the concept of selection bias) is cautious and is sitting in 60/40 portfolios and this includes newcomers to the market, old timers, and those who bought and lost houses in 2007. Market climbs the wall of worry. 1) For starters, housing in Silly Con valley is more expensive than it was in 2007. That applies to other west coast areas as well. 2) startup boom may collapse. Lots of froth apparently getting funding. Collapse will impact real estate, could computing, software revenues and housing (see 1) 3) Increased leverage of public companies - nothing too concerning, but will definitely reduce the flexibility in a recession for higher leveraged companies 4) Private equity bubble (hard to quantify, but based on the multiples being paid, there could be problems if credit dries up a little) 5) lower or negative interest rates - if those come to pass, they will destroy the financial system like cancer. 6) political change or geopolitical events (Markets assume that Trump wins, but is this a sure thing. Democratic candidate isn’t picked yet and could be negative for the market too). Iran or North Korea going rogue and forcing our hand. A recession could be occurring not because of one it factor, but because a garden variety of factors all nudge things into one direction (as they impact each other). Example of those garden variety recession were 2001/2002 and 1990/91. Just a few ideas of what can happen. If everyone expects sunshine even just a regular shower will get everyone running for cover.

Regarding HA, it seems that Southwest will be competing with them more and more going forward. While I take it with a grain of salt a pilot who works for LUV told me that HA would be toast in a couple of years, because they cannot compete with LUV. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/01/19/hawaii-news/southwest-opens-hilo-inter-isle-service/

I have started to invest in Japan (after dabbling with some Japanese large caps trading in the US) after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which caused a huge selloff in mid and small caps and offered a significant opportunity. After that played out, I have done some investments, that mostly turned out to be longer term swingtrades. I bought the stocks mostly based on metrics, but feel that my lack of understanding is a real issue, so expect for my post Fukushima trade, I never allocated much resources (capital or time) in Japanese stocks.

BAESY gone from my non-taxable accounts today.