Spekulatius

@Viking I take that you like $LEVI as a vindication. Anyways it’s a small position for me and I traded it twice before with success. I followed the company since they IPO‘d. I know them ,one enough and remember when they went private decades ago. Anyways, I like what I heard so far. Demand collapsed during the epidemic as everyone was Zooming along in their underwear apparently, but hey never lost much monos, emphasized DTC and stayed cash flow positive. The stock hung out around $12 and a bit blow and I bought some shares and sold them at $17 in one of these bounces after the vaccine. Too early as it turned out. So, ingot interested again at $16 when the stock dropped despite much better fundamentals and even though their Q2 2022 result looked solid. They showed some rise in inventory, but nothing extremely out of line if you consider revenue growth. Now, I think they might get hit too by the consumer recession, but I can’t see this being as bad than the epidemic by a long shot. The stock is now at $14.5, go figure. Net debt is almost zero and what shows up is just LT lease liabilities, so balance sheet is not is not issue. I guess there are many other stocks like this, but LEVI is one I know and it‘s an easy business to understand. FWIW, I agree on BAC and JPM, but my bank of choice amongst the large caps is USB. I also own a bit of CASH and COF.

It looks to me like these operating losses are not a typo but quite real. MSGE business has improved in 2022 relative to 2021, but still had operating losses. If you think otherwise, pls explain based on their 10-k why you think so.

For the US to sabotage these pipelines makes no sense. The pipeline was non-operational to begin with and there are no plans from the German side to put them into operation. So why risk a huge political rift, if US were involved into this? I think it’s just a covert operation from Russia to keep us guessing. It coincides with the Baltic pipeline from Denmark to Poland becoming operational and the area where this happened is very close to this. Russia did this to make a cover threat to more important pipelines that are operational and very important with the current NG shortage. https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia Its low risk for them because if they were to be caught red handed, they would said it’s failed repair of their own pipeline as ridiculous it may sound. Russia could have destroyed the pipeline closer to home, but that would appear less threatening. Putin is a KGB guy who loves to saw doubt, discontent (guessing that someone else within the West did it) and all those little cat and mouse games. same with thr sanctioned Turbine just a few month ago that was in repair in Canada. He let Scholz run through hoops and in the end it didn’t matter at all. My guess is that next they will offer to repair the pipelines in exchange for lifting sanctions etc. Maybe the only purpose is to distract from another Russian defeat in Lyman, where the Russians are for all practical purposes encircled and probably take another beating.

Bought a starter on LEVI again. Maybe not the cheapest consumer stock, but one of the most durable brands. I also like management. They have done an excellent job to during the epidemic etc.

Agreed on this. One thing to keep in mind is that post WW2, Germany actually had quite a bit of oil production in Northern Germany, so this would not be without precedence. Maybe shale production in shallow waters is a possibility as the North Sea was a large oil producing area in the 70's and 80's. I do not know if shale reserves exist there, but suspect they could. I think for some poorer countries in Eastern Europe like Poland or Romania, the incentives to produce shale will be very high. Argentina has huge shale reserves that are probably equal to the US, but it's mismanaged and it will be hard for them to develop the infrastructure needed to export it. Maybe they come around or some Europeans government guarantees will help to make a deal and get this going. It could be a huge win win for both.

One thing that is increasing clear is that the Russia Ukraine war is a nothingburger for the crude oil market. It does have an obvious impact for the NG market , even worldwide, because now the russian gas that went to Europe is stranded. So this is a shortfall that is going to last for a while and pushing prices world wide higher. many countries are going to be looking for NG and the most likely source is going to be shale gas. The US is not the only country with large shale gas resources - Argentina and Europe and many other places most likely have reserves that hadn't been explored yet. The UK already rescinded their ban on fracking and I think countries like Poland are likely to follow. Discussions in Germany have started as well. In Europe, I think it's almost inevitable that shale goes comes into play. The Ukraine has huge NG reserves too, so once this war is over, that's another source that could come into play. Europe's NG crisis will mostly be over in 2023. At that point enough G liquification trains will be in operation to replace most of the Russian NG. There may be some lingering effects into winter 2024, but it will be far less than the coming winter 2022/23. Europe will pay the world market price of LNG and I think with more capacity for LNG liquification going online, US NG prices will go closer to world market LNG prices. In other words, the global LNG market will equalize prices around the globe and it will more resemble the global crude market.

Speaking of the war on weeds and specialized stuff, if you have problems with crabgrass in your lawn, this stuff from BASF (DriveXLR8) is the chemical warfare bomb: https://www.amazon.com/BASF-AMDRIVEXLR-Drive-XLR8-Killer/dp/B08DJ8XTBR/ref=asc_df_B08DJ8XTBR/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=507730646855&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=9985564175916134754&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9001910&hvtargid=pla-1253150176265&psc=1

Is there some longevity gene with Berkshire investors? Maybe a hidden benefit. Key to compounding is duration and that's where Buffett is king, doing this for more than 60 years now. Even a mediocre investor will do well if he lasts long enough; at least that's what I keep telling myself.

Bought a starter in ADDYY (Adidas) today. I also added to PAH.DE / POAHY.

This crowd can achieve now significantly higher income from their investments. Lower inflation will also be good for them. They supposedly have locked in a low cost mortgage. I would say what is happening now is a plus for them, unless they had an imprudently risky asset allocation.

Yeah, everything went great when Leisure suit Larry was in charge.

it is also my opinion that Russia is the primary suspect. We can't say for sure, but it just fits the pattern with Putin's cat and mouse games and history of indirect threats. KGB tactics. It's also coincidental with the Norway Poland pipeline starting up just a day or so ago. I absolutely think the NATO can easily isolate Kaliningrad, if needed. That's where the Baltic navy command sits that was involved in one way or another if indeed Russia is the culprit.

Bonds get interesting when spreads blow out. So far this has not happened. I like bonds in the BB/BB+ range (just below investment grade) and those that go from BBB- (barely investment grade) to junk often see a lot of selling. I want to see double digit (or close to) interest rates and nice spreads. Then you can get equity like returns with those and often they bounce back a whole lot quicker than stocks. I just need to be comfortable with the underlying business. The last chance were pipeline and MLP stocks in ~2015 for me. COVID-19 also represented an opportunity, but it was so short lived, that I didn't manage to take advantage of it.

Did Geico ever write homeowners? They had an affiliation with Travellers to write homeowners when I was with Geico years ago. Auto could take a decent hit, if there is widespread flooding.

Soon followed by the Campaign 7: Kesselschlacht in Lyman Campaign 8: Orcensturm - defend against the attack of the conscripts horde. 1M russian conscripts against 100k Ukrainians.

@rkbabang great guide. My son is going to college next year, so I forwarded this to him. He has trouble choosing his major, so that one looks as good as anything I have seen so far.

Time for a deep dive for sure.

We do not know for sure. Germany shut down the pipeline (never commissioned it and pledged no to do so) so it's not in operation and will never get into operation. Strictly speaking , this pipeline is a stranded asset because other pipelines could handle the contracted flows, but that's all mute because no gas is flowing. The only reason to sabotage it is to play mind games or as a covert threat. We will find out soon enough when this is investigated. We know that 2 separate pipelines are very very unlikely tot blow up at the same time, so the accident hypothesis out the window already.

A craft beer (from the larger regionals) has been $13.95/12 pack forever (when on sale). They are pretty good. Used to be $12.95 but $1 over a couple of years is not too bad. No beerflation. The small nanobreweries have increased their prices much more. I don't see much inflation with meats, beer and pizza's (frozen or when you assemble them yourself) and what else do you really need? We have seen monster inflation with imports of asian food goods from Hmart or other asian stores. I think my wife mentioned some fish or oyster sauces that went up about 3x. Walmart has the cheapest Sriracha and ran out for month. How the hell did we run out of Sriracha in 2022?

Yes, sabotaging the pipeline to Poland would have made a real economic impact, but may also be considered an act of war against NATO. This pipeline is really a stranded asset so sabotaging it has no real impact, but Putin comes from KGB, he likes to do mindgames, diversions and blackmail etc. (see the drama with the pipeline turbine as an example) If we do get a covert war in the Baltics, having the Swedes and the Fins join the NATO is coming in very handy. The Swedes have a few good submarines and anti submarine ships and a decent air force.

Interesting take from Sky news /Michael Clarke regarding the pipeline incident in the Baltics: Michael’s takes on Ukraine have been excellent so far. I highly recommend listening to his short reports on YouTube.

I have no opinion on the stock which looks expensive to me. it's a rollup in the optical field. UK management teams easily get scared in downturns and don't make much fuzz about diluting shareholders at the bottom. Something to keep in mind with the current carnage.

I personally think we are getting to the point where owning a single family home will be the exception not the rule. the building codes and lack of available land make sure of this. Short of a trend where many move back to the countryside which would reverse hundred of years of urbanization. the result is probably more multi family and apartments down the road. In a way housing demand is a bit flexible too - yes you need a roof over your head, but a family can live with 1000 Sqft of 300 sqft and the amount of living space is a lifestyle choice to some extend. Then there are factors impacting demand like institutional buying of single family homes which I actually think will lead to a higher possibility of a crash down the road, or the AirBnB trend which could run into trouble with city/town regulations.

Clorox bleach prices have doubled since before the epidemic. A can went from $2.5 to ~$5. The only thing in the super market that never went up in price is beer, especially the larger regional craft beers.

I do think the interest rate rises will slow down. maybe 50bps or 25 bps next. The first interest rate rises just started a bit ore than 6 month ago and start to have an impact now. Biggest mistake would be to ease to early. The 70's was the time when inflation was flaring up again and again, partly because the Fed never held course. Better to slay the inflation dragon once and for all and keep the interest rate at a certain level for a while, even if economy weakens. As for inflation, if prices for let's say houses go up by 30% and then go down by 10-15%, is this deflation? I don't think so. Same with energy, food prices, cars, steel and many other goods.