Spekulatius

Try your library. the Boston library gives you online access for example. I personally would use tikr.com because it is much quicker.

From Woosh! -Surprisingly good record from Deep purple:

$250K for a nice buildable lot on the lake doesn't sound that steep. I have seen lakeside lots trading for more in the southern NH boonies and the climate is much more agreeable in NC. I don't think the bottom is in for those.

Selling a bit more $JXN

I would make the argument that the cyclical nature of their FCF makes energy companies poor candidates to buy back stock to begin with. They should be thinking about replacing buybacks with special dividends - the way PBR is doing it. Even with the tax leakage, the results may be better overall. Energy companies absolutely need to keep investing when energy prices are low. If they stop, the whole organization gets hollowed out (the skills to run exploration and development will wane) and it is also cheaper to develop resources when prices are low rather than when prices are high and everyone else is rushing in.

A hard landing - however that is defined- is never good for banks. Results will depend on exactly how hard and what exactly comes down, but it generally means consumer stress (CC and car loans defaults) as well as commercial real estate defaults and spreads blowing out. For a real hard landing, the annual stress test results give you an idea what a 2008 GFC like scenario looks like. It's not pretty but the major banks would survive. That said, you don't want to own banks in this scenario. I consider such a hard landing very unlikely however.

Yes, when you have a 401k, then your option are limited. Often the only options aren't even index funds, they have higher cost funds. over time this has improved, but even large companies have surprisingly crappy options. I have talked with several benefit managers about this - they could easily do better, but they don't care - all they care is compliance. If you think about it in this way, less options mean compliance becomes easier for them. brokerage window - oh now - possible compliance leak - don't want this. Even with index vs higher cost funds - as long as it's not grossly negligent - they don't care. I also think there is some sort of kickback scheme at work where higher cost funds are pushed in exchange for reducing the administrative cost for the sponsor company.

I thought he was in the money with TSM. So he pays taxes rather than saving them.

I think the value of this thread could be to create a framework what to invest in rather than buy or sell everything. I mentioned banks here before, because I believe they would benefit from the higher rate for longer framework 9after getting dinged in a pot. recession). maybe European banks become investible as Europe goes from a negative interest regime (which is toxic to banks) to a couple percent risk free rates Energy could be one of the drivers of inflation for some time, so it may make some sense to put some money in energy related securities. Maybe a higher bond / or MM allocation makes sense for some people. Those are much more interest questions than where the SP500 might go and when or buy or sell everything right now because XXX may happen.

TSM is the biggest headscratcher. He is also getting out of the ATVI arbitrage it seems. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc

Looks like another escalation from Putin - meddling in Moldova potentially. Of course Putin will deny this - just like he denied the “Green men” in Crimea 2014 were Russian mercenaries :

$EEM is for rookies because the fees are too high. $VWO from Vanguard is roughly equivalent and much cheaper (0.08% vs 0.68% fees). This 0.6% fee differential does add up:

Higher for longer is good for banks. Solid deposit franchises will generate sustainably higher NIM in an environment with bonds at 4-5% than they did with ZIRP. I don't think it's priced in bank stocks for the most part. A soft landing shouldn't be that much of a problem on the credit risk side. That's directly actionable, not just macro chitchat.

I think the bond market can forget about H2 2023 rate cuts. This will become obvious over the next few month.

This documentary is pretty good, not just the part with Bolton.

I sort of went a little but down a Frank Zappa trip and really started to dig it. Zappa was what the Inteligentsia was listening to in the late 70‘s and I never really understood what it’s about. I did watch a documentary about him and then it became clear to me that he is more of a composer than a R&R musician. I like the mid 70‘s period the most - Aprostrophe, Overnite Sensation, One size fits all, Hot rats… Or the greatest album title ever “Sheik Yerbouti” (especially considering it was released in 1979).

I don’t think he would at this point. He only knowingly went into asbestos when the extend of liabilities were better known after Manville went through bankruptcy. The same could happen with 3M. I personally would not touch 3M stock with a 10 foot pole at this point.

The main reason that Putin is reducing crude production is to reduce the sky high differential to other regular crudes. Increasing the overall crude prices is a secondary effect, but also welcome of course. Ironically, the high differential have been benefiting Russias economic allies China and India the most, as they have been benefitting from being the only buyers left for Rusdian oil and were able to buy Russian at very low prices. So China and India will get hurt more than the rest of the world because less Russian crude supply will mean lower differential in addition to higher prices overall. I do think Putin can do this for a while , but there are problems with shutting in production , as field can be also impossible to start up again. I don’t think China and India will like this move either, so similar to the NG embargo, he plays for short term benefit but damages his position longer term.

Looks like the balloon was indeed a spy / surveillance balloon. The antennas arrays alone indicate so, since a weather balloon would likely have other sensors like pressure equipment, maybe infrared cameras, temperature sensors. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-carried-antennas-other-equipment-to-gather-intelligence-u-s-says-11675953033?mod=business_trending_now_article_pos1

I think the thought is that it does not matter why the yield curve is inverted, it only matters that it is inverted. There are always different reasons why the yield curve is inverted and while the Fed is a player in this, they don’t necessarily control the bond market. However regardless of the reason , so far the yield curve inversion always has predicted a recession so far.

I had a hunch that the Bing ChatAI combo is making some waves. I also read that Google's AI investor day was a bust. Stock was flat when I reduced and then started to tank. It seems a bit of an overreaction quite frankly.

I think this is a bit nonsense. Your decision may have been a reasonable one, if you assume that Steve jobs was necessary for Apple to succeed. However, once you sold your shares, the mistake may have been that you did not continue to track the company. Apple shares trade every day and you could have bought back the shares, if you came to the conclusion that Tim Cook is a great CEO 5 minutes later, 5 days later, 5 month later or 5 years later. A buy or sell decision is easily reversible (yes sometimes there are tax consequences).

Reduced GOOGL a bit premarket.

@dealrakerThat's is some real good performance. Was this with mutual funds or ETF's or was this with individual stock picking? 13% compounded is some serious outperformance.

Turkey is a terrible country for the average investing tourist to get involved in - terrible currency and economic policy, huge runup in the market, political (and now geological) instability galore, an autocratic government, terrible liquidity, lousy rule of law, lousy governance. The list goes on. To sell Micron (close to the lows) and buy the overbought Turkish equities most be one of the lousiest market calls ever.