Spekulatius

Nope. Banks can get liquidity by various sources, but for example overnite FHLB advances cost ~4.5% interest rates right now. That hurts if a large part of your balance sheet is parked in underwater MBS with a now 10 yearn+ duration and 2.2% interest rates (was probably 1.8% when they bought them) https://www.fhlbdm.com/products-services/advances/

BAC and a lot of other banks did:

SIVB is a $200B bank. Only a major National bank can swallow this one whole. Think JPM, WFC, BAC. It’s too large for a bank like USB, especially since they are currently involved in the Union bank acquisition and have some rebuilding on the capital ratios to do.

I am fairly sure the yield curve inversion will at some point revert whether we get a recession or not. Even if we don’t get a recession over time, the higher interest rates will reduce inflation and that will likely revert the yield curve into a more normal shape. The current shape is the result of the Fed tightening very quickly. I also think that current event in banking will reduce lending, simply because banks are going to be more concerned about the liquidity buffer. When you look at bank balance sheet, the liquidity has been drained because deposits have been mostly flat and lending has continued to increase at healthy rate, probably caused by inflation. As we know , the current holdings of under water MBS and treasury also has sterilized part of the banks balance sheet, as selling them would cause losses denting regulatory capital and banks don’t want that.

Charging has nothing to do with the operating system update. Since you swapped the cable, it’s probably an issue with your phone plug having problems to make the electrical contact. I would bring it to the Apple Store. I have an iPhone XR on iOS 16 and my son has an 8+ that still works as well.

Yes, I recall I looked at them when you mentioned the stock a while ago. having lived near the Bay area, I was somewhat familiar with them and I think my inlaws have an account with them. They have pretty good metrics profitability (mid thirties efficiency ratio) due to having somewhat of a moat with Chinese people preferring to bank with them. it was simply something that I knew and have checked for pitfalls when the hell broke loose. Same thing with USB where I added to my position. Given more time, i would possibly pick up some spicier stuff like $ZION but I simply did not have enough time to double check the FFIEC filings, 10-K's transcript to get confidence here. I'd rather play it safe then getting into some gotcha's because I venture into something that I haven't fully checked out.

To me BOH looks pretty safe. They do have a large security portfolio as well - ~$8.3B with ~$1.3B in equity. this looks scary, but BOH has a very stable deposit base because there is very limited competition in Hawaii. I think they will be fine. They have traded at premium valuation because the lack of competition has enabled above average ROE with very low risk lending.

My ad of the day. It's getting ugly out (or in) there:

I do think that lending is going to get tighter because many banks will consider their liquidity buffers.

Banks Are fun - just have a look at $FRC. Bought more $USB $ESB and $CATY myself. I always wondered what Fintwit experts are seeing in that one. Not any more.

@dipod - what is your take at $ZION. they also got a bunch of AFS securities and moved a large bunch to HTM ( yellow flag). They also have seen a huge bump in deposits in 2020 and have seen some of them disspear. the bank is very cheap, if they can hold on to their security portfolio and they seem to have very low cost deposits, but there are definitely reasons why some investors are concerned, based on a preliminary look. Edit - i just saw that they also drawn ~$10B from federal funds already, so they are definitly liquidity constraint. those Federal funds loans are quite expensive and might lead to negative carry relative to their securities.

Regarding SIVB: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4585904-svb-financial-selloff-overdone-well-positioned-long-term#comment-94677294

It's not lending that did them in, it's liability management. These guys take deposits from the SillyCon valley VC bubble economy which have been fleeting, I think. They put those into treasuries that are deeply under water and then decided that they need to sell part of the treasury holding and realize losses. These idiots managed to own $120B in fixed income securities with an $16B equity base.

It's not just the Bank of the Crypt, its also this SillyCon bank that spooked a bit:

I think the idea of the USA making good with China was that the bigger headache was Russia at this point and the enemy of my enemy may be my friend. Russia had a rift with China at that time and Nixon/Kissinger was trying to exploit. Also, economically speaking, China has beaten itself into submission with Maoist policies, so wasn't really a threat beyond the nuclear weapons.

The US forgave Germany and Japan after they were beaten into submission and totally destroyed. If we can beat Russia into submission, then we will forgive them. I am not sure what you mean by forgiven in China's case. China was an ally in WW2. @Xerxes said it first. LOL

The history of sanction and red flag enemies of the US would suggest that things take a long time to go back to "normal". Just look at Cuba and Iran? those are in the doghouse for decades (Cuba since the 50's, Iran since the late 70's). It doesn't matter who is president in the US either, these things transcendent party lines. In the case of Cuba, the reason for the sanctions (affiliation with Soviet Union, nuclear missile installation) is gone since the mid 90's. Yet here we are... I think Russia is in the doghouse with the US and the west for decades even after Putin is gone. The US is almost a #neverforget country as far as foreign policy enemies are concerned.

Bought some regional bank stocks $EBC and $CATY. I also added to $CABO

I actually agree that Pepsi for example is not price gauging. you can read their earnings releases. They just managed to pass on the cost increases (give or take) and their profit grew with inflation basically (9%).

I think this article is a bit misleading. There is more than meets the eye. $1.3B was a "deferred EPL charge" (what ever that is, but it looks like non-cash). Harbour had quite a bit of FCF. Taxes actually paid were a fraction of the nominal tax indicated.

If you grab a handful of ketchup single packs from your local McDonald (of course without dining there), then there is no inflation When times are really tough, I go there for inspiration: http://www.bumwine.com/compare.html The Fed can also deflate stonks so we can buy more of them. That also helps with inflation.

I also think the Fed is in the "business" to impact peoples and by extension the business behavior to transmit their monetary policies. That's why Powell and the other Fed governors do these talks and the Fed publishes their notes and all those things. If the Fed truly believed that behavioral aspects don't matter or they can't influence them, then they would do nothing of this sort and just raise or cut interest rates or change monetary policies without comments or pre- announcements. That's clearly not what they are doing.

I think if you believe in God, you may as well believe in Santa Claus. You don't need god for anything - how life started out, to explain the Universe, or the foundation of ethics. Santa Claus is a convenient and comfortable belief for 4 year old and god or religion is convenient and comforting belief for adults. I also think ethics are developed evolutionary both on a biological as well as on a societal level. For example it is human (or mamal) instinct to care for our young, because it makes evolutionary sense to do so. If we would be a species that is programmed (by evolution) to eat the weak younglings to let the strong survive, the ethics of a society that this species develops, would likely indeed condone and reward this practice.

Oops: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/windfall-tax-wipes-north-sea-120711857.html

Great podpast here from odd lots regarding pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/corporate-earnings-calls-provide-clues-on-inflation-odd-lots-podcast?srnd=oddlots-podcast#xj4y7vzkg "Price over volume" seems to be the new corporate mantra.