Phaceliacapital

I use Burry's method ever since I read the letters and he forced me think about it this way

For what it's worth, in the latest value investor edition, one of its two macro bets for SC Fundamental is that the JPY will depreciate

April fools or short XOM?

Hey, we have discovery channel in the EU too :D!

Yeah but if you follow that line of thinking your scenarios wouldn't exist in the first place, as no sound (value) investor would buy at 150% of IV

With that kind of mindset you should buy an index :D

I guess it depends on the type of scenario within the buyback scenario, no? 1) I sell all my shares in the repurchase program and manage to sell a 66 dollar bill for 1 dollar. After the transaction I have no interest in the company and the value destruction does not matter anymore. 2) For example purposes, I sell half my shares (making the 66 dollar bill, 1 dollar gain as above) and keep half my shares. The IV of these shares declines as the company has done value destructive repurchases 3) I keep all my shares and am the biggest loser as the company did value destructive repurchases in which I did not participate Is this a sound reasoning or am i talking friday evening nonsense? Thanks, I like the thought experiment

I am afraid I don't completely agree.. At a 150% overvaluation, isn't the company buying back a 66 cents dollar bill for 1 dollar? Which I think is rather value destructive as a shareholder of this company? I would think that buybacks are optimal as long as the stock is undervalued, fairly valued and overvalued just until the level that the tax implication on the dividend will be less value destructive than the buyback..

Ok so, 1) I start to regularly trade options in my broker account for a couple of months 2) I learn to hack social media accounts (or find someone who does it for me) 3) I invest my entire portfolio into put options 4) I hack the twitter account of company X (that has sufficient liquidity and volume for a little fish like me to go unnoticed) and I put "Under investigation by SEC due to illegal XXX" 5) I profit and invest everything in calls 6) The rumour fades and I can be a millionaire by only using 25,000 Who's in???

Who here bought around topic inception ? It's at 170 now, amazing...

I finally found it: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/share-buybacks-(apol-swy-dtv-aig-etc)/msg102256/#msg102256

Can anyone please give me the link to a topic (pretty recent one) where there was this overview of the top 10 cannibalizers in terms of share repurchases? I believe the overview was pulled out of factset (?) I have managed to stumble onto this topic while not looking for it, but now when I actually need it I can't find it :D Its even featured on another blog, but again, I cant remember which one.. In addition, anyone has an idea to quickly re create the screen in Bloomberg Terminal? The methods I have currently come up with are pretty time consuming so just asking out Thanks guys!

Thanks Parsad

Morningstar: Lululemon notified the investing community Monday of manufacturing concerns regarding its signature Luon black pants. Coverage of the fabric is weak, causing sheerness in the pants. The company has removed from its shelves the units that do not meet its stringent technical specifications. While this sounds like a small concern, the press release noted that the affected items were nearly 20% of all women's bottoms in the retail channel and that there would probably be a shortage of these styles during the first quarter, lowering profitability. Before last weekend, the company was on track for double-digit comparable-store sales growth and expected revenue of $350 million-$355 million for the first quarter. Since discovering the problem, management has revised its forecast to include comparable-store sales growth of 5%-8% and revenue of $333 million-$343 million for the first quarter. We expect this to weigh on the gross margin and selling, general, and administrative expense ratio over at least the first two quarters of 2013 as the company experiences a mix shift away from these high-margin and high-volume items and has to spread its costs over fewer units. Lululemon is currently trading at $63, slightly above our fair value estimate of $62.

Royalty companies should be very interesting in a high inflationary environment

Anyone who has a link to a decent neutral write up of the current (and how we got there) situation at Cyprus? Interesting discussion to say the least

If it is not fixed untill the weekend I will take a closer look at it. At home I have a spreadsheet with the SMF addin working on Excel 2007/2010 so it probably wont be very hard to deduce the problem. Also, the community on yahoo groups is very responsive when you have questions/problems. BTW: I cant download your file on my work desktop but it looks like you are using Google Finance, ever considered advfn as source? It provides 10 year annual and I think around 2.5 years quarterly data.

As a good alternative: http://www.amazon.co.uk/McMillan-Options-Wiley-Trading-ebook/dp/B008L01IWK/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1363364163&sr=8-2

Hadn't read his letters yet, I like the dual class shares option

A very wise and prudent man if you ask me, thanks!

+1 Just to confirm the consensus, great book.

Full piece is out: http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2013/04/bill-ackman-dan-loeb-herbalife

Regarding Tesla I think you should watch Bloomberg's Risk Takers on Elon Musk, just to get an idea of the kind of management you're dealing with.. What about the lock up period that will expire at Workday (WDAY) in April??

What about MIG (holding co) ?

How can a company as WDAY still be alive? Mcap 10 bn for tangible book of 100 mn??? Thats even worse than WCOM in its prime.