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Phaceliacapital

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Everything posted by Phaceliacapital

  1. I started my investing career by studying TA so maybe I should kick this off: When I determine the IV of a certain company I check its historical price and try to determine (often easy observable) where the TA have put their stops/entry points. These points are usually based on the resistance lines, which can be on the upside "ceiling" or the downside "floor". Once they go through there is most often increased buying, selling power. This is typically around the even numbers like a price of 5 7 10 or something even + 50 cents, so 5.5 7.5 etc, the increased technical selling power provides a lot of room for people who actually know what they are doing (us) to enter at bargain prices. I also look at volume histograms just to get a feel of the market + I also look at the Death Cross. This is where the 50DMA crosses the 200DMA on its way up, or down. This is actually a TA phenomenon that I still attribute some importance too (qlso mostly for entrance points). When the 50 crosses the 200 on its way up you can typically expect a lot of upwards movement and vice versa. All the rest of the indicators are fun to know if you want to lose money
  2. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/loeb_mackdown_ytWzxGO80hoVPTJTXJX5UN?source=email_rt_mc_body Supposedly Icahn joined the long side
  3. I will try to find out, I also asked concerning the excess supply and he told me this created a lot of opportunity for the lessor company to expand its fleet at a reasonable price (which is no surprise ofc). Also, I was currently researching Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates, and found this very informative presentation (also gives a very nice history and fun facts) over at Kroll Bond Rating: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324391104578230060513922882.html?mod=djemalertNEWS Also, you got any experience with EETCs?
  4. I checked with my boss (he is part shareholder of a container company) to get his 2 cents: He considers the container market to still be pretty liquid, although dryboxing containers (speciality of the company) has seen a recent dip due to china (has become less and less exporting, but that's nothing new) but expects this to pick up again in the coming years. So positive outlook on average. The company he has a stake in is incredibly efficient, just to give you an idea (as a tank container lessor): Gross Margin: 45% Ebit Margin 20% And a crazy FCF (despite investing in additional containers) Buyers have very stable purchasing habits, I forgot to ask what he thinks of excess inventory... There is definitely room for consolidation and he expects this to become reality in the next couple of years, I have worked on 3 buyout scenarios for the same company this year. You btw also see diversification, the larger shipping container taking over smaller air/rail containers (with a special interest toward nonstandard containers such as cooling containers (for food, blood, plasma), that market is undoubtedly going to boom) Electronic platforms, to the extent of the lessor company where I worked, definitely yes, they are finishing the implementation of a program ( i forgot the name but might be able to find it) that makes tank container placement/ordering/billing significantly more efficient, management gave us a presentation and I was really impressed. And yes, the industry is evolving towards the use of the mammoth ships, container size will remain the same however. The shift in business vessels I honestly do not know, I'll try to pick his brain later today Please let me know if you need additional info
  5. Related to: Free online courses: https://www.coursera.org/ Participating universities such as UCAL, Columbia, Stanford etc
  6. Very interesting read over at Newsweek: http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2013/01/04/eunuchs-of-the-universe-tom-wolfe-on-wall-street-today.html
  7. Somewhere at the start of the book it says "Warren said: "If you have multiple versions of the same story, use the least flattering one"", I always wondered whether he really said that..
  8. Hi everyone, edited to prevent recognition I have been interested in investing since university and have collected (and read, for those wondering) a nice (imo) stack of books over the years. Included are traditionals such as Graham, Buffett bios, Fisher, Lowenstein, Greenblatt etc but also less known (or less available) works such as Klarman, Pike, Staley etc, and several AR reports from our well known gurus. I am excited to join this board and hope you can profit from my knowledge as I will of yours! Feel free to ask questions! PS: I started investing from a TA point of view, but don't hold that against me..
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