Palantir

Am I the only one who thinks this looks kind of dull and hokey?

Have members ruled out that BV might decline? I mean BRK is so leveraged and heavily into cyclical, industrial stocks which are getting pounded this year. Eg, NSC is down -30% YTD, and if we assume a similar valuation decline for BNSF, and multiply by 2x for leverage, the "true" BV might be lower than anticipated?

Anyone taken this? How do the STC materials compare?

All this macro talk makes me want to eat some cheesecake. A labor I am willing to bear.

Oil may not be forever at $40, but some of these companies might not be alive to see oil > $40. Not to mention the companies whose valuations implied >$90 oil for the foreseeable future now have impaired profitability and growth prospects. Just because valuations are low now doesn't mean they are good investments! Just watch and wait as their hedges roll off...

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I think FB is a pretty reasonable multiple. AMZN, if you are looking at net income then you need to keep reading.

Can you remind me, is Twitter fast growing in any metric nowadays? ::) Touché

So fast growing tech stocks have high valuations?

WMB has a lot more upside than ETP, which is going nowhere until Kelcy buys up the different entities, which he can delay by buying WMB.

Maybe he finds a veritable menu of options?

good luck, in fact I expect a year from now the yield to continue to rise until Kelcy decides to consolidate. There are too many headwinds against this sector - lower oil prices, lower demand, higher interest rates, higher cost of capital, lower upside due to IDRs....time to invest in these things was 10 years ago, but typically after the growth has already happened the value investors are interested.

Buddy, you don't know that yield is staying constant. How exactly will these acquisitions be more accretive at this cost of capital? ATM program will not help!

What upside? They are barely covering their distribution right now and may get high single digits growth. Do you think they want to finance projects with equity yielding 9%? Now maybe they will because ETP is in the high splits and ETE benefits disproportionately from unit issuance. If you want upside why not do ETE?

Feel free to add to the SUNE thread.

How do replace commitments that don't arise? I think you are both focusing on how existing pipes make money and forgetting the demand for future pipes.

In the midstream world, proposed projects are not constructed without firm commitments. Those firm commitments, in almost every case, take the form of take-or-pay contracts that last 15-20 years. So the comments that volumes may not materialize is quite irrelevant. And yes, I realize that ETP's yield is almot 9%...I specifically stated that in my earlier post. And if those firm commitments do not materialize?

If volumes don't materialize then that means that growth projections will be lowered, which raises the cost of capital. If that happens, the partnership ends up in a vicious cycle, where it becomes very expensive to raise additional equity for projects. You realize ETP has a 9% current yield? Also, EPD does not compete with crude by rail.

Agreed, I think investors vastly underestimate how pervasive the combination of low oil and an interest rate hike is going to be...SUNE is exposed badly to this unfortunately as well. :(

How do you know EPD and ETP aren't hurt by weakness in O&G? Oil is being hit by supply, but it's also being hit by demand, what does that tell you about volumes?

Oh Ballmer will be back someday... ;D

I bought Sunedison (SUNE).

Nope. Roth IRA investor, so not CG and I'm still too lazy to trade.

CFA Level 1 will give you a good background. Don't have to take it, just get used books etc.

I'd like to remind you that this is a business trip, no need for his employer to find out about his er....hobbies. ;D (not that there is anything wrong with that).