boilermaker75
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Posts posted by boilermaker75
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I am reading [amazonsearch]A Curious Mind[/amazonsearch] by Brian Grazer.
It is very interesting so far, and I would recommend it.
Find in attachment what Mr. Grazer has to say about "curiosity meetings".
Cheers,
Gio
I haven't had any of my students tell that about being in my class, lol.
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Furniture isn't worth the added hassle
Scott that is a great quote for this topic. I'm sure the number of people in the developed world who would agree with that is quite small.
I enjoy owning a couch, a good reading chair, a computer desk&chair, and a bed. I really can't imagine living without any/all of those things.
A good reading chair is one of life's great pleasures, imo. So you can count me in the "most everyone" who would disagree with the 'no furniture' statement.
I would add to that bookcases!
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I would think that the posters on this board are in the top 1% as far as self-motivation and can educate themselves. I am not so sure the majority of the population could do this without some mechanism such as grades and the subsequent fear of being dropped from school. So they probably need to go to college.
I have found most students don’t study till right before an exam. So the more exams you give in a semester the more the students will learn.
With that said, many of the top rated universities in the US will not give Ds and Fs. The result has been rampant grade inflation,
So I suspect there is a lot less learning today then there was 30 years ago at universities.
Let me give two examples.
Example 1.
We hired a faculty member who was a faculty member at an Ivy league school. His first semester with us was this Fall 2015 semester. A couple of weeks ago he came to see me. He asked, “I have two students who have not done anything this semester what do I need to do?”
I told him, “Give them Fs..”
His response was , “Can I do that? I couldn’t give Ds and Fs at my previous institution.”
He said, “In similar cases they would officially drop the students from the class even if it was the last day of the semester so that they did not have to give Ds or Fs.”
Example 2
One of our students got his Ph.D. and went to a prestigious private university, not an ivy, as an assistant professor. He was not my student, but we collaborated when he was a graduate student and published some papers together. So I know him well. This is the story he told me.
He would give Ds and Fs. Then he would be called in to meet with his department head and the dean of engineering. They would tell him, “We do not have D and F students here.”
His response was “They would get Ds and Fs if they were at the university I graduated from.”
He was asked to leave. He has been successful at another state institution.
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A value investor is probably someone who is at least aware of the concept of risk and reward based on probabilities and downside protection. As such, considering the probability of a car accident which is non-negligible and possible outcomes, I'd say the main criteria would be safety and so one should go for a car which has the best safety rankings.
and that would be a Tesla,
https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-achieves-euro-ncap-5star-safety-rating
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Selling monthly at the money puts in AAPL and MET.
I am doing this also with AAPL, plus BAC at 17 and below, FAST at 40 and below, and BRKB at 131 and below.
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I just finished Alexander Hamilton. I have read a lot about the American revolution, but I new the least about Alexander Hamilton. This book sure changed that!
I just started Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
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As anyone thought about writing weekly covered calls on the SPY? Say you own 100 shares of SPY at $205.68. You write a call option at strike price of $206 for $1.08 premium. That's about 0.5% gain (excluding taxes and fees). Annualized that, it's around 27%.
Any thoughts to the downsize of this? You could be stuck holding the SPY, shares are called away, and might not get the premiums you want.
You have covered the down- and up-sides. But why not do this with a particular stock? With an individual stock you could have a better understanding of price to intrinsic value. For instance, I have been doing this with BAC at prices of $16-17 and currently with BRKB at $130-131. I actually start by writing a naked put. If it expires I try to do it again. If I get put to I write a covered call.
Good point. It's mainly volatility. The probability of the SPY swinging +10% in a given week is lower than a single stock.
What premiums and returns are you seeing by doing it on single stocks? Thanks.
Here is how the 17-strike options turned out for me on BAC in 2015,
Wrote 1/9/15, 17-strike puts on 12/12/14 for $0.24 per share.
Put to on 1/9/15
Wrote 1/17/15, 17-strike covered calls on 1/12/15 for $0.19 per share.
Wrote 3/20/15, 17-strike covered calls on 2/6/15 for $0.36 per share.
Wrote 6/19/15 17-strike covered calls on 5/13/15 for $0.15 per share
Called out on 6/19/17
Wrote 8/21/15 17-strike puts on 7/15/15 for $0.20 per share
Put to on 8/21/15
Wrote 9/18/15 17-strike covered calls on 8/24/15 for $0.16 per share
Wrote 10/30/15 17-strike covered calls on 9/25/15 for $0.15 per share
Wrote 11/6/15 17-strike covered calls on 11/2/15 for $0.16 per share
Called out on 11/6/15
Wrote 12/11/15 17-strike puts on 11/9/15 for $0.20 per share
Put to on 12/11/15
Wrote 12/18/15 17-strike covered calls on 12/14/15 for $0.26 per share
Wrote 12/24/15 17-strike covered calls on 12/21/15 for $0.21 per shared
12/24/15 called out
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As anyone thought about writing weekly covered calls on the SPY? Say you own 100 shares of SPY at $205.68. You write a call option at strike price of $206 for $1.08 premium. That's about 0.5% gain (excluding taxes and fees). Annualized that, it's around 27%.
Any thoughts to the downsize of this? You could be stuck holding the SPY, shares are called away, and might not get the premiums you want.
You have covered the down- and up-sides. But why not do this with a particular stock? With an individual stock you could have a better understanding of price to intrinsic value. For instance, I have been doing this with BAC at prices of $16-17 and currently with BRKB at $130-131. I actually start by writing a naked put. If it expires I try to do it again. If I get put to I write a covered call.
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I love options. Particularly, the yields I can get from selling them on stocks perceived to be particularly volatile. I recently made 5% on notional in a couple weeks (not annualized) by selling the Wayfair $35 puts. They expired worthless.
LEAPS and warrants interest me from an investment perspective... short term stuff, I'm more interested in being the insurance provider.
I also love options. In addition I use writing puts to enter my LTBH positions.
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I think the US political system is actually pretty good. Its strange to me to see how much people criticize it.
As an American, I am embarrassed by our political system. And I am greatly dismayed over the debate that is occurring over minimum wage. There should be no debate. Economic elites want low income people to live in cardbox boxes forever though. They (the economic elites) need more money after all.I think there should be a debate. I can think of many arguments against any minimum wage.
In schools, we teach our kids that we are a democracy. I wish we taught the various forms of government and told the kids to decide what we are. HINT: We are not a democracy. We are a country controlled by economic elites and interest groups.America is not a democracy and it never ever was supposed to be. The Founding Fathers thought democracy was a horrible system and they were right. The fact that economic elites have disproportionate impact on the political system is in my view an extremely good thing and also exactly the way the system was designed to function.
I never understand why people are interested in populist democracy.
Theoretically democracy doesn't work https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem.
In the most ideal settings (voters are very interesting in issues, spend enormous time debating) it doesn't work
Historically it has never worked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athenian_democracy#Criticism_of_the_democracy
And presently its a disaster ex. India, Venezuela.
The hilarious thing to me about all of this is that the whole reason democracy even has a good name today is because of the success of the United States. You shouldn't be criticizing the US for not being democratic enough. You aught to be criticizing democracy for not being US-like enough.
While I disagree with you about the US system being "pretty good", I do agree with you 100% in that a true democracy would be much worse.
What makes the US system so bad is how much power is currently concentrated in the federal government. Regardless of the details about how it operates a better system would be so powerless that no one would bother trying to buy influence.
At the start of the republic, Washington and Hamilton had to acquire enough power for the executive branch to insure the republic would survive. Jefferson and Madison were opposed to, and strongly fought Washington's and Hamilton's efforts to increase power in the Executive branch. But as presidents, neither Jefferson or Madison relinquished any of the power in the executive branch!
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Reminds me of this joke,
Warren Buffett retells the story of the dead oil prospector who gets stopped at the pearly gates and is told by St Peter that Heaven’s allocation of miners is full up. The speculator leans through the gates and yells “Hey, boys! Oil discovered in Hell.” A stampede of men with picks and shovels duly streams out of Heaven and an impressed St Peter waves the speculator through. “No thanks,” says the sage. “I’m going to check out that Hell rumour. Maybe there is some truth in it after all.
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I've heard about this pub that had an ad in the window saying "Free beer tomorrow!"
Same thing?
Where's the free beer?
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You can get lost or stolen certificates replaced,
http://www.sec.gov/answers/lostcert.htm
I have known some high-net worth individuals who get physical stock certificates. I don't recall exactly but it has to do with the limit of protection you have if your brokerage firm goes under.
Edit: My memory is not what it used to be so know I am recalling it might be related to the long delay in getting access to your stocks if the broker goes under.
SIPC insures brokerage accounts for up to $500k of which a maximum of $250k can be cash. So if they have more than $500k in an account at a brokerage, there is the possibility that they could lose if the brokerage went under. Of course, SIPC protection is at the account level which means they could just open another account and transfer the excess balance over $500k, but maybe taking physical certificates appealed to them for some reason.
SPIC is not a government agency, but is funded by member firms. I seem to recall SPIC has less than $2 billion in assets. I recall this was also part of their concerns.
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You can get lost or stolen certificates replaced,
http://www.sec.gov/answers/lostcert.htm
I have known some high-net worth individuals who get physical stock certificates. I don't recall exactly but it has to do with the limit of protection you have if your brokerage firm goes under.
Edit: My memory is not what it used to be so know I am recalling it might be related to the long delay in getting access to your stocks if the broker goes under.
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When I looked at Enron's annual reports, which I did after they collapsed, I seem to recall they had several years of negative FCF. The negative FCF was on the order of $2 billion dollars per year for several years in a row before the implosion. So maybe Enron should have been obvious?
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Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure – Tim Harford
Influence – Robert Cialdini
The Last Lecture – Randy Pausch
Mindset – Carol Dweck
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Here are seven of the best books I read this year ...
https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/08/summer-reads-for-the-curious-mind/
Wow, you read 44 books in 6 months! I am envious. Thanks for listing your top 7. I am always looking for a good read.
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The truth is that school shootings really are no big deal and it makes zero sense to treat it as a major policy issue. The loss of lives from the absence of autonomous cars due to over-regulation would be like multiple mass school-shooting every single day for the whole year. 30000 people die every year in car accidents. 300 people total have died from school shootings since 1980. We REALLY should be doing something to get autonomous cars on the road and we really should be ignoring school shootings. Yet our approach is the exact opposite.
In terms of number of victims you are correct. But having experienced the loss of colleagues and students in car accidents, and being in a building where a student was shot and stabbed to death, the effect on everyone is quite different and by orders of magnitude. None of us will ever be the same, and by varying degrees, because of the shooting.
I am in this photo,
https://purduecco.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/purdue-vigil.jpg
I'm sorry that you had to go through that, but it is difficult to enumerate all the ways your comments are wrong. For one, the number killed in car crashes so far outnumber the number killed in school shootings that even if the lives of those killed in school shootings where 100 times more important than those slaughtered on the roads and highways as you are implying, it still would do far, far, more good to solve the road carnage issue. I really don't think when someone loses a child to a car accident, or a drunk driver, or a road rage incident, that they sit down and think "thank god she wasn't shot or stabbed at school". And finally there are many things we can do to reduce the incidence of death on our roads simply by getting the government out of the way (reducing regulations/bans on Uber and Lyft for one will have an impact on drunk driving deaths, allowing companies to develop, test, and market autonomous cars will have an impact on accident/road rage deaths, developing drone delivery will get more trucks off the road and eventually lead to passenger drones, Audi isn't allowed to use its laser headlight system in the US because regulations require a certain type of lamp, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, on and on and on...). There is nothing you can do however to prevent the occasional lone nut (or small group of nuts) from deciding to kill people.
I apologize for not being clearer in what I was saying. I did say in my first sentence that I agree with you on the numbers.
I did not mean lives lost in school shootings were more important than those lost in traffic accidents.
I did not mean that how a parent losses a child caused a difference in their grief.
At my university the student population is about 40,000. Every year a couple of students die in car crashes each year, especially during breaks when they are traveling by car. There will be an article in the student newspaper, it will be sad, but maybe only 50-100 people who really new that person experience grief beyond a little sadness at the news.
When an active shooter kills someone on campus it has an effect on 40,000 people. As evidence there were at least 10,000 people the evening of the shooting at that candle light vigil and the temperature was -10F. People who never knew the victim had to have counseling.
I disagree that nothing can be done. I can quickly think of a few things. People can become more aware of what signs to look for. Faculty, advisors, fellow students, staff, etc. can be educated to look for tells that someone needs help because they might be a danger to themselves or others. Better warning systems can be put in place so other class rooms can go into lock down. I now make sure I have a plan on securing my classroom if there is an active shooter on campus.
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The truth is that school shootings really are no big deal and it makes zero sense to treat it as a major policy issue. The loss of lives from the absence of autonomous cars due to over-regulation would be like multiple mass school-shooting every single day for the whole year. 30000 people die every year in car accidents. 300 people total have died from school shootings since 1980. We REALLY should be doing something to get autonomous cars on the road and we really should be ignoring school shootings. Yet our approach is the exact opposite.
In terms of number of victims you are correct. But having experienced the loss of colleagues and students in car accidents, and being in a building where a student was shot and stabbed to death, the effect on everyone is quite different and by orders of magnitude. None of us will ever be the same, and by varying degrees, because of the shooting.
I am in this photo,
https://purduecco.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/purdue-vigil.jpg
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If you already have a lot of business experience, the MBA will not teach you anything new.
It will however give you some structure to what you were already doing intuitively. It is worth something - but not the 100K stuff.
If you are early in your career, buying the name plate may be worth the cost. Depends on what you plan to with it, but treat it as a limited life union card. If you didn't go with a big 6 school; 5 years out - what you did with your MBA will count for a lot more than where you got it from.
Ordinary mortals are far better served going the project versus courses route, doing the whole thing on-line versus taking time out, doing it later in life - not earlier, & using the opportunity to do a deep dive into the emerging technologies. If you intend to work through to the new retirement age of 72, you really need to be retooling by around age 50. But this time - with 25 years of experience to back your new tech, you haven't come to tickle the world's cohunes; you're there to squeeze!
So far ... Rod Stewart has had 8 kids by 5 different women - & will probably have a few more before he finally croaks out.
This is just a cheaper version of the same thing.
SD
Jeez, Sharper... Have you actually tried going to school at 50? It is not in any way similar to attending school at 25 or 30.
Rod Stewart would probably have a lot of fun going back to school!
Rod, It's late September (OK early October) you better get on back to school!
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Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity.
--Carl Icahn
Cheers,
Gio
“It’s not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to terms with stupidity and make it work for you,” Frank Zappa.
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FIDO has an app -- for the iphone, at least -- which acts as a token. It's from Symantec and is on the phone. You might need to press them to offer it to you. This solves the issue raised above and also seems generally more secure, as a hacker could break into your computer remotely and load the token that is on your machine, right?
Not sure if I'm missing something.
The security token is a small device that is separate from your computer. You push a button on the security token, it shows a passcode that you then type as part of the log in process. You cannot access it through your computer.
Thanks Boiler. I've got one of those separate tokens for Schwab. This thing I'm talking about for Fidelity is like have the token but on your phone -- it generates a new 6 digit code every 30 seconds. It's great (assuming I'm not missing something about the security) because as long as you have your phone with you, you have the code rather than having to be sure you're carrying around your separate tokens (Schwab) or cards (IB).
I don't recall, but I'm pretty sure I didn't just download an app from the app store but I made it sound that way. It was activated somehow from Fidelity but it appears just like any other app on the phone itself.
But, it might not be as secure as the entirely separate Schwab token you're talking about and am open to being told otherwise.
Perhaps you were telling me that in your reply!
Kiltacular,
I understand now.
Yes I think the Schwab token and IB card would be more secure, but of course you can't get into your account if you don't have them with you, or can't find them!
Boiler
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FIDO has an app -- for the iphone, at least -- which acts as a token. It's from Symantec and is on the phone. You might need to press them to offer it to you. This solves the issue raised above and also seems generally more secure, as a hacker could break into your computer remotely and load the token that is on your machine, right?
Not sure if I'm missing something.
The security token is a small device that is separate from your computer. You push a button on the security token, it shows a passcode that you then type as part of the log in process. You cannot access it through your computer.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
A PowerBall ticket