muscleman

What were the technical analysis that you touched upon? By the way - thanks for alerting the board at the time, wished I've seen it! Lots of data points that I can't go over in one post, just like you can't summarize Value Investing in one post here.

My biggest achievement in 2020 was to sell 90% of my stocks right before the COVID crash as there were many technical indicators showing the top. But I still had a 4% draw down on my account as the remaining positions dropped like a stone, which is a tragic because I had too much fundamental belief in them. My biggest mistake was to choose not to believe in my technical analysis after the end of March when it says I should be buying aggressively. Being in an inner circle with classmates from Wuhan's CDC and Hospitals, the fundamentals clouded my view too much and scared the shit out of me to buy. I was ramping up exposure on stocks too slowly and ended the year with only a 11% gain.

I expect low debt asset light growth stocks to continue to do well if rates go up. The reason is simple. When inflations kick in, if a company wants to maintain a given ROE, for an asset heavy company, they have to put in a ton of assets to maintain the ROE, but for asset light growth stocks, they don't have to put in much additional capital.

It is mind blowing that the 10 yr T-Bill rates spiked again this morning, AFTER fed promised to keep rates low yesterday for a few more years. If fed can't stop it, then I wonder if the rates will spike really hard.

I opened this thread back in December because my technical analysis shows a sharp rate spike for the whole year, but I was puzzled how that could happen because FED is supposed to be able to buy bonds to keep the rate low. So far FED hasn't been able to keep the 10 yr yield low. It was 0.9 back then but 1.3 now. But this is just the beginning. It should continue to rise. I did not trade this because people say "never fight against the FED"

The oil prediction came quicker than i expected. But I also think the spread between Canadian and US oil will remain at a wide margin now that he banned keystone pipeline so his big donate Buffet can profit from the $30 per barrel railroad shipping charge from the Canadians. Makes total sense for a green energy leader. ::) https://www.wsj.com/articles/tightening-oil-supplies-inject-new-momentum-into-pric[…]d=IwAR0G47iWMoBxqI8xMun_7WUWgCe3H6R8OfmvtfOt4L1-CZFTMGUm3IWp2n0 We will see when the other two comes in.

I heard some rumors that after taking the mRNA vaccine, the penis may get 10% shorter and have functional problems. I think I would wait a bit longer to see what's going on with that study. ::)

I saw your original post. Why try so hard? Really? Sorry about that. I wasn't sure if I got that one posted because I couldn't find it anymore. :o I just searched and could not find it. Was it deleted by someone? I thought it was moved to the Politics section but I didn't bother checking. Maybe it was deleted, I don't know. My point is why try so hard to do basically a 100% political post here. The only thread linking your 3 points in your timeframe is politics. Am I wrong? I don't see the original thread in the politics section either. Odd.... The government policies are very important in regards to what are the potentially hot areas to bet on. For example, when a lot of federal and state lands are banned from oil, that changes the supply demand quite a bit. Also the keystone pipeline ban can make railroad hot again.

I saw your original post. Why try so hard? Really? Sorry about that. I wasn't sure if I got that one posted because I couldn't find it anymore. :o I just searched and could not find it. Was it deleted by someone?

Just for fun. Let's have it here and come back four years later. 1. Oil and other commodity prices way up 2. Housing price the least affordable ever. 3. Highest gun sales in US history.

it may be interesting to start a small position here BTW. ;) I wouldn't go big though.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-21-2021 https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-debunked-biden-inherited-vaccine-distribution-plan-47-times

No idea. I guess my strong dollar would be the same with Yellen's strong dollar?

I wonder if this can happen. It seems to me that this can only if the rest of the world's other central banks print even more?

The administrative resolution hope is gone. Only counting on legal battles. But the US is no longer the US in the old days and the separation of power is quickly eroding. I am seeing the US quickly turning into China where the government has unlimited power of both modifying laws and explaining laws, which is exactly what happened in the November election. I am sure Chris agrees with this.

https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1350844297621463044/photo/1 If we get a similar pattern in the US, which I think will, that's not good for the market. Tighten your belt for a sharp pull back.

Muscleman, Source, please. You are asking for sources from a country with no freedom of speech. I am unable to provide much for you.

no one knows but we can get an educated guess from its policies that just tightened restrictions on its own citizens from entry into China since January 8th. Recently there has been lots of Chinese citizens who got negative COVID tests yet denied entry because “they can’t show why their trip back to China is urgent.” There was even a guy whose relative died and he said his trip is urgent so he can attend the funeral. The Chinese embassy’s response: “that person is already dead so there is nothing you can do about it. We don’t think it is urgent.”

massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days.

I previously saw a post here that said back in 2009 he was bullish on apartments and condos but now due to population shift he is more bullish on single houses. I can't find that article anymore. i wonder if anyone has seen that post here and could help me find it please?

Agree. One of the purposes of this is to listen to different opinions. Otherwise it's just an echo chamber... It is important to control emotions and have objective assessments on the same facts that everyone is seeing. Sometimes when price drops, people feel a lot of emotional distress and couldn't help but be mad at anyone bearish and disagreeing with their bullish views. Everyone wants to have an informational edge and profit from that, and this thread has done an excellent job on that. But sometimes everyone is looking at the same amount of facts, and have to objectively assign the right probability to the outcome and take actions based on that. The problem is you have shown on multiple occasions you dont know the facts, HERA, what congress does with the GSEs, the SCOTUS, on and on and on. So no one who truly is informed on the issue can take your or spek's opinion seriously. You guys don't know the facts so your opinion FWIW is rubbish. No offense meant but perfectly sound reasoning based on your own logic. I am not sure if you know how lawless communist countries like China and Russia run. The eight years of Obama has turned this country quickly that way, and Trump is unable to turn it back, and now we have Biden.

Agree. One of the purposes of this is to listen to different opinions. Otherwise it's just an echo chamber... It is important to control emotions and have objective assessments on the same facts that everyone is seeing. Sometimes when price drops, people feel a lot of emotional distress and couldn't help but be mad at anyone bearish and disagreeing with their bullish views. Everyone wants to have an informational edge and profit from that, and this thread has done an excellent job on that. But sometimes everyone is looking at the same amount of facts, and have to objectively assign the right probability to the outcome and take actions based on that.

What value does this add? Unless you have skin in the game this type of post spams the board that includes incredible analysis by Midas, Luke, Chris, etc. No disrespect, but 4th quarter dunking adds nothing to the group. It does add value. He is making the right judgement call here. Mick Mulvaney just resigned. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/mick-mulvaney-resigns-from-trump-administration-expects-others-to-follow.html

what's more likely to happen before 1/20: Trump declassifying everything, including how Kennedy got assassinated. Mnuchin saving FnF from the eternal bleeding.

Yeah, but those were OUR dates, based on assumptions that sometimes turned out wrong. The question is whether Mnuchin ever had a "date" other than last minute. We may never know, but while time is running out, the last minute has not yet arrived. What makes you believe something will happen at the last minute? That’s another one of OUR dates? These papers are like call option that on January 20, imo. At least the executive action part of the value will expire. I am not sure what the lawsuit part is worth. Even if executive action were to occur, there is a strong likelihood that it will just be reversed. Yep. Now Dems control House, Senate, and presidency. Nothing will be done in the next 4 years at least. Or Mnuchin will say, "I don't want to leave this up to Dems" and he'll sign the PSPA amendment. Investing is a probability game. What do you think is the likelihood of this? My assigned probability is 0.0005%