muscleman

From zero to 50% War risk based on a fact that everyone new already. This makes no sense to me whatsoever. This was a stupid but in the end inconsequential incident. I think chances of war are very remote. Based on a fact that everyone knows? What fact? The fact that China suddenly started to acknowledge its heavy loss in the June conflict is quite new and only in Chinese media. Do you read those? Yes we all knew China lost soldiers in June but the fact that it refused to acknowledge that back then implies that it had no intention to escalate. Now is the exact opposite. It wants to escalate.

I am bumping the probability of the war risk up again to 50%. China has finally acknowledged a lot of death during the June border conflict. This could be a prelude before the war.

Jim Cramer’s show is toxic and unwatchable

From a humble perspective, it's hard to 'see' or 'smell' a short term connection between reaching some kind of herd immunity and market 'movements'. Maybe you can? This thread is more about trying to understand the world. Because of your superior perspective, we are in the unfortunate position that i may benefit from yours without you benefiting form mine. :) We all have to make decisions based on limited information. How to go about it is the question. That's actually not true. Whenever I see my opinion being widely agreed upon, I become very concerned about it because there is likely no more value to act on that conclusion.

There is a saying that traders trade for a living and analysts analyze for a living. :) In the world of investing, we need 10 variables to reach a decisive conclusion but we only have 2. What do you do? Either wait for longer or make an educated guess and act. Going back to your questions, I would assume different countries have different standards for who can get tested. It is pretty easy in the US, especially in Seattle. I just fill out a form online and someone delivers a test kit to my front door by 2 pm, and I test myself and put it back at the front door by 3 pm, and someone picks it up that same day. But some other countries can be very difficult to get it tested. I have no way to know if Spain has the exact same standard to get tested as Sweden. You have less cases if you have a high bar for testing. But all I know is this. If you keep the country open, and not many people are wearing masks, and the cases trend down, I smell herd immunity and I act on it. You can keep waiting and waiting until you get comfortable to act on it but likely that's the time when everyone is comfortable and acts on it and likely that's the market top. You have to be able to act ahead of other people.

Looks like Herd immunity is the only way to go, without a vaccine. Of course the Trump haters will keep saying, there is no evidence of herd immunity in Sweden. They simply changed their behavior! Whatever man. If you guys ever track the court rulings in the FnF thread here and see how those liberal judges bend the law backwards to fit their political views, you would never be surprised about how the liberal "scientists" and "doctors" bending the data backwards to fit their political views. :)

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far. WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen. I do not have time to track all 50 states. What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk? I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition. Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity. There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%. Finally! Thank you for providing your definition of herd immunity. It is not the textbook definition of herd immunity, but that is not the majority of where you seem to be going wrong in your reasoning. It's true that if we had achieved herd immunity that cases would be declining. It is NOT true that if cases are declining, we must have achieved herd immunity. If A then B, does not mean you can say, B therefore A. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent I agree that it is likely that T-cell immune response likely varies widely and as I have said before I believe there are lots of reasons to believe the level of immunity in the US and elsewhere is likely materially underestimated. That doesn't mean that we are anywhere near the textbook definition of herd immunity anywhere in the world other than in a few narrowly defined communities. You must have a degree in Math, which unfortunately I don't. Mine is in biology. ;D

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base. You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning. There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning.

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far. WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen. I do not have time to track all 50 states. What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk? I think your terminology is broken, though maybe not your thesis? I have asked before, how do you define herd immunity? You seem to have a non-standard definition. Herd immunity = 80% + population immune to the virus. Therefore if society is open and the daily new cases continue to trend down, that's sign of herd immunity. It is not equal to 0 daily cases every day, unless 100% of population has immunity. There are lots of infections with no symptoms and probably a lot of people who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell has strong reaction to it. So it is naive to use the confirmed total cases to divide the US population and require that to be greater than 80%.

A little piece of advice to Dalal Holdings and others, Ed Secoda has a famous saying "Everybody gets what they wanted in the market". If you have myopia and laser focus on the bad side of COVID and how terrible Trump is, you will not be able to make the right calls on the market. (Same advice to die hard Trump supporters who only focus on the good things of COVID) You still get what you wanted -- endless entertainment from the most entertaining president of the US. But if you are serious about the stock market, you have to give up the exciting and entertaining portion of this process. I've talked to really successful investors periodically and they are really smart and really humble. I don't see anyone of them who is ignorant and really proud of being ignorant. ;)

Hey muscle--no one on here understands this virus better than you--that's for sure! I grant you an honorary doctorate. Where that herd immunity at? Still waiting... :-X The herd immunity hypothesis is not broken. Georgia, FL, TX have all reopened and cases continued to trend down. NY reopened some restaurants and look stable so far. WA, CA's total cases/ population is only half the ratio of GA, FL, TX etc so I think they will get a new wave once they reopen. I do not have time to track all 50 states. What part do you see that makes you think herd immunity hypothesis is at risk?

Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool. Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy! Based on how well COVID is controlled, Dr. Dalal Holdings should move to China and enjoy President Xi's governance. ;) BTW China just had a big celebration yesterday regarding how well they controlled COVID vs the rest of the world, and awarded a few top doctors and policy makers for that. You just can't stop winning there. ;)

That probably means they are the conservative judges who don't bend the law backwards to fit their views. Trump's nomination may be based on review of a lot of cases by these judges rather than just the NWS alone.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Not a bad call here!! Good call MM Thanks. The sharp drop in unemployment rate today is what I expected due to the fast improving COVID situation, and the market reacted poorly. If this continues, we may have additional surprises from Fed's mid September meeting that the QE is over.

Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey. You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing. Biden is a moderat republican? :o Did you see his promises to raise trillions of tax and all other things? That seems like a radical left. BTW, Biden's son took a 2bn dollar loan from Bank of China in 2015. Nobody knew what happened later. It could be "forgiven" and pocketed. He needs to explain that because that is wayyyy bigger than his son's Ukraine dealings.

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect. I don’t see why you think he has a problem with Fauci. His post shows he has a problem with how the left media is using Fauci

Yep. I can clearly see people with agenda or Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) twisting facts.

You are talking as if the phase 3 trial does not exist.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher? ::) I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction.

Lots of people say the vaccine is being rushed. I think it is intentionally being delayed. At least I see it this way because there are 2.7M volunteers who signed up for the phase 3 trials of Moderna and others but so far Moderna only recruited 17k. I would think all 30k would have been recruited in a week or two but it has been 5-6 weeks now. The reason this vaccine is coming out so fast is because a lot of pharmas have been developing MERS vaccine for 5-6 years and COVID is so similar that they just need to switch a portion of the genetic sequence to make it. With that said.... the November 1st date does seem fishy.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%

To be fair, it is actually not too far away from the 20k prediction. But it doesn't matter. People who remained in cash from April to August and people who have Trump Derangement Syndromes remains biased that the COVID situation is terrible and getting worse and worse and we are going to hell soon. It is totally comparable with the BS science for Global warming now.

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon. Could we see some type of sector rotation like what happened in 00 when IT stocks bursted and traditional value stocks doubled? Surely we could. But I think the most likely scenario is that we see a bear movement for all kinds of stocks. I've been trying to take out most of the stock positions and buy some rental properties, but didn't have any success. The real estate market has gone wild as well. Even for rental properties with non-paying tenants, buyers are fighting for it. Our state has paused eviction for quite a while, but that won't deter buyers from buying rental properties that yield 2% cash on cash return, IF the tenants start paying again.

After seeing the heated exchange between Gremal and Dalal Holdings, i am completely speechless. Previously I thought Global Warming is the only BS science with people refusing to accept facts for many years. Now it seems like COVID facts are going in that direction too. Whatever man...... You can do whatever you want with your own money. Who cares. 8)

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... FWIW muscleman Thank you for apologizing about the 20k figure. Most people agreed a month ago that we had already peaked and cases would head downward. There is no sudden drop suggestive of herd immunity end of August. It’s a gradual decline. There is a clear epidemiological definition of herd immunity with a well defined threshold, we don’t need to debate that. FL and GA had double digit positivity rate last week (1/8 positive) which is not a good thing and shows herd immunity is not anywhere near at least according to an epidemiologist’s definition of the term. No I disagree. When you have GA and FL reopen and the new cases continues to drop, that's the sign of herd immunity. "double digit positivity rate last week" proves nothing. If there is only one guy who has symptoms in GA yesterday, he got tested, and it is positive, that's OMG 100% positive! That's the end of the world isn't it?