muscleman

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only. When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too??? Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle). If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country. Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science. In terms of the market, yes I think once the COVID situation is over, there will be a crash. Lol. Please don't accuse me of things that are not true. You repeatedly deny things related to covid and ask for "more graphs", but have nothing to say when the graph you ask for is posted. Not objective at all. If Covid will be over due to herd immunity in the next 30 days and "there will be a crash" with "high conviction", then holding cash seems to be a wise position to be in, so amusing to poke fun at cash holders... My investment decisions did not influence my statements back in March about exponential growth in the U.S. for covid and also did not influence my statements about rising deaths as a result of rising cases in June in the South/Southwest (deaths now at about 7,000 Americans per week). These things panned out, sorry to say. As far as my economic concerns, they come from the pandemic, not the other way around: covid --> long term economic impacts You say it's "pure data and science" yet we cannot even have a consensus about HCQ on a supposedly objective investment thread. And you cannot even acknowledge the multi $Trillion failure that is occurring here but not other G7 countries: Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it: I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only. When holding cash is considered flawed on a value site (after 11 year bull run, >30% S&P return in prior yr, near ATH): run. Good luck being fully invested on “high conviction” beliefs about imminent herd immunity. I thought you said there would be a market crash when it happened too??? Like I said, I maintain ample liquidity in times of wide uncertainty. I will not be overly concerned/frustrated if I underperform a rising market in 2020-2021. Certain investments like PTON, AKAM offset whatever I miss out on with my cash pile anyway. I’m more interested in outperforming a slumping market/economy than a surging one after the past 11 year bull market (downside protection, precautionary principle). If I’m frustrated about anything, it’s the long term (economic and other) damage covid mismanagement has inflicted on my country. Whatever your investment decision, that's your money. Please don't let your investment decisions infect the objective judgement of how the COVID situations progress from now on. It is pure data and science.

They must be. Otherwise they wouldn't be so frustrated right now. But I would prefer to confine this discussion to COVID only.

The market view is low conviction. The view on the long term economic effects is much higher conviction. And the 2nd/3rd order economic effects caused by U.S. covid mismanagement (like dollar devaluation, rise in metals that is occurring) should be fair game for the thread. After all, you brought up the topic on discussing what happens to "the market" due to covid. So discussing currency devaluation (accelerated by covid mismanagement) by a President who stated "dollar is too strong" and the increasing odds of a new President (due to covid) coming in and raising corporate taxes to pay for the mess and more...all relevant. You can say Covid is pure science, but it has been botched by so many esp in the U.S. despite it being "science"--for example: just today we have our political Leader you miraculously absolve from all blame once again touting Hydroxychloroquine--"pure science" says otherwise, but "pure science" does not matter... Well, when I initially brought up the market's "forward looking", I merely meant to use that as the metaphor for forward looking mentality on COVID situation. I have high conviction that by the end of August, most states in the US will have achieved herd immunity and the daily new cases will be sharply lower than what we have now. Then school will reopen in September. Whether Hydroxychloroquine works or not, this prediction will not be affected.

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view. I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest. Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths). So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario. To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)... But since you are asking about what would happen today if the virus is gone.... I have a completely different thesis than anyone else here. I think the continued daily cases will drive the market up, and by the time the virus is gone, the market will crash. Again I have high conviction on this. :) But I don't want to elaborate on that because it is a pretty complex theory and this is a COVID thread and it took so much back and forth to even try to agree on some hard facts about COVID. I don't expect you or anyone to believe in my market theory but I think it'll be fun to keep it in mind and see if it works out that way. ;) I actually agree with you—the market slowly edges up as positive covid news comes out, but then when we get vaccine approval/reopen economy, crash as the “forward looking” market faces the harsh reality beyond covid: long term economic damage from covid, a potential Biden presidency with Dems at the helm ready to raise taxes and pay for all the costs of Corona mismanagement from Trump. Like a stock that rises in anticipation to an expectedly positive earnings report, but crashes when earnings are released even when it’s a beat. And even if the punchbowl can’t be taken away completely, there is no way fiscal and monetary stimulus can continue at current levels anything beyond short term... But then again, pontificating on markets while fun, is highly useless IMO and not reliable. I‘d rather spend time on individual names and have lots of liquidity in times of uncertainty. But if you have high conviction, would love to hear the reasoning behind that, though I remain skeptical of anyone who can forecast short term price movements in general. I am surprised that you actually agreed with me on the market view given it is far harder to figure this out than hard basic facts about COVID, which is pure science. But I strongly disagree with you about Trump's mismanagement on COVID, but it seems to me that facts related to COVID these days are being politicized as well and I don't want to spend any time arguing about it. Maybe the bar is set too low when I compare it with how China handled COVID.

But hey, they're right--stonks will probably go up, just don't ask about real returns! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-02/trump-says-dollar-too-strong-swipes-at-fed-for-raising-rates A good chance he wins BIGLY with correcting the problem of a "too strong" dollar...so much winning! This post has gone beyond anything related to COVID. I would prefer that we only talk about COVID in this thread.

You asked me about the market...so I answered. Funny you say I jump ahead when if the market were perfectly forward looking, it too would “jump ahead”. Fact is, market is at pre-covid levels so it is already pricing in a vaccine/cure with no long term economic effects in my view. I refrain from forming high convictions about situations with wide uncertainty/fat tails. Some folks believe they can form high conviction opinions about massive events like covid with multi order effects (and call out people like me as “not committing” even though the things I’ve committed to—like exp growth in March, delayed mortality from Southern spike in June—have panned out). If you think you can forecast this thing along with 2nd/3rd order effects with “high conviction” and derive an edge, then be my guest. Now it sure does look like U.S. daily cases may have peaked (with certain restrictions in place) though deaths in some places continue to rise—FL just reported a record number of daily deaths (consistent with being a lagging indicator as I’ve stated with regards to deaths). So yes, it certainly seems we may have seen the worst of it in the U.S. wrt rising cases...but if the market is truly “forward looking”, it already has accounted for that, no? The rise in U.S. cases has been declining for a couple of weeks now. I mean we are just going in circles if we are going to pontificate about “the market” anyway which is why it’s always fun to talk about “the market” but useless. On a general risk-reward basis though I don’t see what’s attractive in the broader market even in your high conviction scenario. To put it another way, if covid were gone today, what would we have to look forward to tomorrow to drive markets higher from their already all time high levels? I’m not sure what that would be (on a real return basis)... I am just trying to go one step at a time. So it seems like you kinda agree but not quite sure that things will be much better from today by the end of August? That's fine. I think it is important to acknowledge that when we build a decision based on a complex web of information. But since you are asking about what would happen today if the virus is gone.... I have a completely different thesis than anyone else here. I think the continued daily cases will drive the market up, and by the time the virus is gone, the market will crash. Again I have high conviction on this. :) But I don't want to elaborate on that because it is a pretty complex theory and this is a COVID thread and it took so much back and forth to even try to agree on some hard facts about COVID. I don't expect you or anyone to believe in my market theory but I think it'll be fun to keep it in mind and see if it works out that way. ;)

Hmm... Do Supreme courts usually rule this slowly? I thought they pick up a case in a term and would just rule the next term.... Why can't they do things faster..... I don't see why admin would do anything after Labor day and before election. If they have dragged it on for 3.5 years, why risk doing it now right before election?

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration? Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials... Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right? Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this: Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now? The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now. You're asking the wrong question. The market is close to all time highs hit in Feb 2020 before covid was even a thing in the United States and after the S&P gained like 34% in 2019 to cap off an 11 y bull market... So...my question to you is...is the outlook vs Feb 2020 unchanged by events of this pandemic (March-Present)--are we all set to have the same bright future we were to have back in Feb 2020? What is the remaining risk-reward in broader equities? Buffett seems to have an opinion contrary to yours... Even if we have a vaccine with full rollout in 6 mo and covid goes to zero in January 2021, it's laughable to think that there will be no long term (economic) consequences from this whole fiasco that does not affect the economy and shareholder returns. Chapter 11s already being logged, massive government deficits, prolonged unemployment, political backlash against tech, likely political change causing corporate tax rates to jump from 22 to 28 to 35%?... These are the things I'm sorry to say that will pop the "V shaped" hope bubble at some point regardless of whatever happens with covid from here on out... Then again, if the dollar weakens enough as the metals market imply, the S&P may indeed go higher, just don't ask about real returns... Edit: The only way the "forward looking so stonks will go up" meme works is if: 1) The market was significantly undervalued in Feb 2020 (I doubt this) Or 2) There are no long term economic effects of covid that impact shareholders (I doubt this) Or 3) Pres Chump wins again and the next 4 years are all about pumping markets at all costs: more exploding gov't debt, currency devaluation, negative rates, USD loses reserve status, etc--don't ask about the state of the real economy though; (#3 is not beyond the realm of possibilities unlike #1 and #2 IMO) You are leaping forward. It is better to go one step at a time. I have high conviction that by the end of August, the covid situation will improve dramatically. How about you?

You mean to tell me the guy who peddled HCQ and Azithro does not care about efficacy/safety and just wants to promote a false perception of a treatment for “no big deal” virus? You mean to tell me it is unlikely that people will trust whatever vaccine his son-in-law “warp speeds” into production? That people have no trust with this highly credible administration? Maybe when all this is done, he and Bolsonaro can launch a homeopathic med business. Just think of the infomercials... Given this is a stock forum, I would have to assume that we share the same assumption that we are forward looking not backward looking right? Of course the Republicans are wrong when they said it is just another flu. But that’s not important. What’s important is this: Do you think things will be a lot better 4-8 weeks from now or a lot worse? How about 6 months from now? The market is forward looking 6-12 months from now.

I agree with rb. Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months. The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.] Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish. - - - o 0 o - - - In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.] Dont overlook cellular immunity which is the better way to look at immunity. Just looking at antibodies gives an incomplete picture and if not all the great majority of people should have long term immunity regardless of IgM, IgG antibody counts. Most of the folks here probably don't know what cellular immunity is, which is why I didn't even bother to mention it. :)

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either... Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting. Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i. I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive. My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this. I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity. I am just surprised at how biased you are. I said 24% already in early April. Did I say 24% right now? I have no further arguments to make. And I reiterate my conviction that by the end of August, this whole situation will improve sharply from today. If not, I will apologize in this thread. :)

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/24/895290378/trump-signs-executive-orders-on-drug-prices https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/07/24/trump-administration-announces-historic-action-lower-drug-prices-americans.html It is odd that I don't even find related articles in WSJ. Could anyone share some insights on how this would affect the pharma and biotech industry? The first articles says "Overall, the ideas embodied in the executive orders aren't new and aren't as meaningful as the White House lets on, says Ameet Sarpatwari, assistant director of Harvard Medical School's Program on Regulation, Therapeutics and Law." But it did not elaborate on why.

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either... Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting. Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i. I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive. My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this.

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either... Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting.

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths) But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning! That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz. For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero. Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases? ;) Why? So you can argue what’s happening in the U.S. is no big deal? Is it wise to divide a lagging indicator by a leading indicator? Is that ratio going to give you an important insight? If you want to play that game, maybe look more at total deaths/total cases by state...Arizona is currently about 2% deaths out of total cases (and where do you expect deaths to go as a lagging indicator?) But again, the U.S. economy is not exactly thriving and even R politicians are buckling and RNC cancelled...tells you all you need to know about the “covid is no big deal” and “just like the Flu” crowd...even those who want to pretend it’s not a big deal are unable to do so... You can only try to hide from reality for so long... Sure everyone knows the death lags the new cases by two weeks. So how about just dividing the death number over new cases two weeks ago to make the death rate chart? I never said this is just another Flu, if you look at my prior posts in this thread when the virus first broke out in Wuhan. I was the one who provided hands on information about what was happening back then in this forum. But what's going on right now is quite different. And why do people even get surprised about the recent 2nd wave of new cases? With all the protesters on the street back in May and June, shoulder by shoulder, without masks, that's what we get now. But the virus has had 1-2 spots mutated and it is far less deadly right now than back in January in Wuhan.

Who's pretending? A broader picture (for those who are behind, the order goes: cases -> hospitalizations -> deaths) But anyway, having the same # hospitalized as back in early April and having even Republican states shut down large swaths of their economies and travel/leisure/entertainment/restaurants continue to be hit this far in late July is clearly #winning! That'll be another multi-$Trillion, please from Congress + Fed. Thank guys! Remember, just a hoax, but we really need the money plz. For the record--the number of Republican National Conventions cancelled due to influenza outbreaks in the past: zero. Can you get us a chart of daily death/daily new cases? ;)

But what does the US COVID Death chart look like? And the death rate chart? Let's just pretend that those aren't important?

That's only if you sample both winners and losers from “Robinhoodville”. I recently saw a story in twitter about such a guy who put up 20k and then in a few days turn his account into negative 800k and killed himself. “Robinhoodville” tells rookie investors that out of money call options expiring in one month are high risk, and at the money calls expiring in one month are medium risk and in the money expiring in one month are low risk. I think this is outright deceit. Of course these rookies will fill out the form like "option trading experience: 10 years" to make sure they can start trading options, even if they have zero experience, just like when they open a porn site and click "Yes" to the question: "Are you at least 18 years old?"

Thank you! Hmm..... I do have concerns for the inflation scenario. I guess that depends on how the investments are managed? If they are into stocks like Buffet does, then it should be fine in an inflation case but if they are in bonds then I guess it is a big problem.

What happens if the Supreme Court case is lost? Then it is all over or is there any other possibility for a good outcome?

Could anyone share some insights?

Would you mind giving a summary of this interview please? Is he bearish or bullish on the stock market?

Swap out CFPB with fhfa and that's what we'll get. A now constitutional thief. Now Calabria's job is in danger if Trump loses re-election. I can't believe even clear cut matters like this can be a 5-4 vote. This means the 4 liberal judges actually believe that there can be federal agencies whose director can't be fired by the US president.