LC

How large of a position is this for you now? Any concerns over deal volume? Mgmt has mentioned for a few Qs now (if memory serves) that they are optimistic that deal volume is turning…but doesn’t seem to materialize. Also, are you looking at comps? Have they seen similar volume declines? I notice WK stock is also down from its highs…

Oh wow, I didn't realize he had fully retired, 5 years ago no less.

Do you ski? Great skiing in Hokkaido this time of year, and the countryside is absolutely idyllic.

Since 2010! Down to just a handful of shares these days.

I have not looked too deeply outside the Aecon section but on the whole, my impression is that this board has better discussion. This corner of berkshire and fairfax is a special place

@willypoo If you are buying Aecon, particularly in size, you may want to reference the stockhouse boards - there some great commentary there on following the business. I can DM you the details if you'd like.

Same with all foreign $ generating businesses - my napkin math is to discount the business' growth rate by some estimate of forex leakage. So if BIAL growing 10% PA and the rupee devalues vs the dollar call it 5% PA, I just use a 9.5% growth rate. I try and be conservative with the forex rate and generally look at least a 5 year window to estimate the forex leakage, below is USD INR :

IBKR i've not really had difficulties dealing with them. I use the web portal, not the desktop application as I don't do a ton of trading or super complex positions.

When you get really old- walk! My grandfather lived to 94 with half a neck (removed in his 60s due to esophageal cancer from smoking), had a brick wall fall on him breaking half is body (he worked construction his entire life in the bronx after emigrating from Italy - after surviving a fascist POW camp in WW2 eating rats). Our family has been landowning farmers in southern italy for more generations than i can count- so after "retiring" from construction he spent all day maintaining the modest flower/veg gardens at his house and my fathers, 3 miles away. 6 miles walking every day, then 3-4 hours per house gardening. The guy was one coiled spring of sinew, essentially. Eventually his body gave out, went to hospital, died 3 days later. Aside from those 3 days he walked and worked every day.

Yeah the merger turned me off from BERY. Paypal looks like it could be interesting.

The conflict of freaking interest here is massive. I wouldn't want Elon touching our nation's money. Dude's #1 skill is promotion, same with Stumpy. Fine if it's private money but get outta here with public funds.

Slightly less but yes!

Having heart palpitations just thinking about it... But yeah you're right, that why in theory these types of taxes sound good...but in practice everyone starts using them for personal interests. Less government, more pitchforks!

Yeah or just don't bother with the stuff that won't make you money. Like, IDK how bitcoin will make me money so I don't really think about it. Same with arguing politics with @cubsfan

I have no issue with VAT or sales tax in theory - as a tool for government (society) to discourage consumption of select goods/services. E.g. you want to buy lettuce? OK no tax. You want to buy a 500 ft. yacht that has a ton of externalities? OK pay government (society) an 80% premium to do so. Obviously that's in theory, but you know it's like George said:

Picked up some Aecon. Glutton for punishment.

Part of me thinks Trump wants to force Powell's hand here with rates. Dude is probably dying for 2-3% long term rates to refinance. Hell, so am I but I'd rather live with 6% interest that I can always prepay, versus forced consumption taxes (tariffs).

BTW @Mephistopheles On light / heavy oil mix: There are hundreds of varieties of crude oil around the world. Different types of oil require different refining processes to make the fuels we need in the quantities we need. Many American refineries need heavier crudes than what is largely produced in the United States. Crude oils have different viscosities or “gravities.” “Heavy” crude oil is more viscous, while “light” crude oil is thinner. Crude oils also have different sulfur content. Low-sulfur crude is called “sweet” and high-sulfur crude is called “sour.” Refineries run on a mix of crude oils in order to run efficiently and maximize outputs. More than 70% of U.S. refining capacity runs most efficiently with heavier crude. That is why 90% of crude oil imports into the United States are heavier than U.S.-produced shale crude. Because heavier crude is more difficult to process and requires refineries to make significant up-front investment costs, it tends to trade at a discount to light crude. Why do U.S. refineries run on heavier crude oils that we need to import? Long before the U.S. shale boom, when global production of light sweet crude oil was declining, we made significant investments in our refineries to process heavier, high-sulfur crude oils that were more widely available in the global market. These investments were made to ensure U.S. refineries would have access to the feedstocks needed to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Heavier crude is now an essential feedstock for many U.S. refineries. Substituting it for U.S. light sweet crude oil would make these facilities less efficient and competitive, leading to a decline in fuel production and higher costs for consumers.

Fairfax and Aecon are my two largest positions and (moreso with Aecon) I am giving up already a lot of 2024's outperformance. So I'll be monitoring those two tomorrow. Really most of the risk there is exchange rate - related, not so much tariffs. Aecon does most of its work in Canada (and owns some US subs). Fairfax similarly I think the material parts of the business are not directly impacted by tariffs. The rest? We'll see what drops...in theory you'd like to buy companies where management is actually going to capitalize on the situation. Someone of these old economy companies (e.g. GM) I could see taking their foot off the pedal.

How does an economy look with a lot of high priced goods that nobody buys? Is this perhaps where corporate profit margins come down to adjust? (Recall a few years ago everyone was talking about unsustainable corporate profit margins v historic norms)

While the upcoming price increase on Crown Royale is tragic, Scottish tariffs would be the real knife twist

I think our points have gone sailing past each others, like american oligopolists on their yachts in the night...but, regardless, you're welcome

You guys are missing the plan: A great way to limit US fentanyl deaths is to make US citizens so poor that they can't afford it!

To be fair I just quoted your post, not sure what I distorted. But I don't see how Trump's 1st term was a fentanyl success. Looks like that's when it started taking off. Nor do I see his actions having any impact on border incidents. Instead it looks like the trend beginning 2010 maintained thru 2019. Maybe we should be thanking Obama instead