Yes, recent history/longer term/on general you are probably right regarding their improving quality, but they just made "transformation acquisition" (and btw issued some 4.8 M shares to finance it) and added substantial new exposures for 1.3 BV, seemingly not cheaper than their own shares, especially considering that they are undervalued and know themselves better, and I am wondering, can we be sure that there will not be any really negative surprises, especially considering this:
https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1029717
http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2017/09/27/maria-turns-2017-cat-losses-into-a-capital-event-for-some-reinsurers-fitch/
"At the upper end of that range this would be a record year for global catastrophe losses, which Fitch says, “could weaken capital at some (re)insurers and increase the risk of rating downgrades.”
Does anybody has any deeper insights into this and possible impact on Fairfax+AW? Maybe than, accidentally or not, this could turn out to be even better opportunity/cheap price? Or just nobody can know about possible event impact even remotely at this time? Why not wait than?