Marco Van Basten

Don't focus on today's free cash flow yield. Focus on what it will be ten years hence. When I bought Tel-Aviv stock exchange for the first time six years ago, it was hardly profitable but I could see that if it hit profitability levels one would expect based on GDP, the stock would be a ten bagger.

Have you looked at Sintana Energy? If so, would you mind sharing your views and why? Thank you.

@Xerxes, all very good points. Yes, GE/Safran are making a colossal mistake if they are not developing both types of engines - open-rotor and traditional one.

Yes, it is indeed a problem that one has to hide one's performance and net worth from friends and relatives. One problem is that people automatically extrapolate and forget that seven good years will be followed by seven lean years, which means you cannot spend as if your returns will always be good. The other problem of course is that suddenly all friends and relatives expect you to pay for everything even though we all started at roughly the same place and the difference is some of us worked harder and spent much less and saved a lot while others spent 100% of their income and now complain that they can't afford xyz and in the same breath spend like drunken sailors on leave.

So how is investment in UA demonstrates this learning? Isn't it another turnaround?

I agree with you. I was not very clear about Heico and RR, that is true. What I meant was that while TDG is vulnerable to losing market share on the spare parts side, GE/Safran don't run that risk. Also, TDG has the risk that it will lose market share on new platforms, it is hard to imagine GE/Safran losing market share to PW for the foreseeable future or anyone else. If you give Rolls Royce USD 20bn, it is not clear that they would be able to develop a competing engine for narrow body market. Hell, I am sure that the Chinese have spent way more.

Yes and no. Yes TDG has competition on the acquisition front and so does Heico. However, TDG wants to be included on new platforms, which is key to profits 20 years hence. In that instance, GE has an orders of magnitude better competitive position than TDG. Similarly, I can't imagine Heico or Rolls-Royce coming up with something to replace a 15 year engine, while TDG always has that risk.

I should have known. I was in Nancy in 2014, I love Dijion, why do you like Nancy better?

Better competitive position. I think Heico is a great business, and frankly better than TDG. I think TDG is running out of acquisition opportunities and there is increasing competition, including from TDG's former CEO. You and I and ten billion dollars can compete with TDG by hiring a former CEO. You and I and $50bn cannot compete with GE/Safran.

You right, but I would still buy them today if a ton of money dropped into my lap. Here is how I think about it: over the next several decades, the number of people traveling will go 3-5x. This will be driven by China, India, Latin America, Vietnam, Philippines. In addition if Uzbekistan, Africa, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia manage to improve economically (for which in my opinion Pakistan and Iran need Kemal Ataturk), this will provide further tailwind. Combine volume growth with tremendous pricing power, the fact that you have 70% market share in narrow body, and seemingly better engine for harsh/desert/India environment, and I see EBIT margin over 50% (TDG has 50% EBITDA - cap ex margin), revenues in real terms going up 5-10x over the next 30-50 years and free cash flow exceeding net income. So volumes up 3-5x, revenues in real terms up 4-7x, EBIT up 8-14x in REAL terms. I bought Safran in 2022 and GE in early 2024 if I am not mistaken.

There is another reason why Trump, and any US leader right now would want low oil prices: they hurt Russia making it more likely that they would agree to a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, and it also hurts Iran, which is one of the key funders of terrorism around the world.

Where and why and which type? Thank you.

Why is it a strange question? Every good investor wants to know what the business will earn in ten years, otherwise how do you value it?

Why? Negative volumes, horrible capital allocation, pricing pressures.

Mon ami, what about a sales forecast 10 years out? Thank you.

Is swimming in Madeira comfortable in December? What is the water temperature? Thank you.

I would pick: Visa, Moody's, GE, Safran, Amrize, RYAN (ticker symbol), Fairfax. I am long them all and might change my mind at any time.

@Spekulatius, stunning, is it France? Where?

How do you see Nintendo in 10 and 20 years? Revenue-wise, EBIT-wise, and how will capital allocation look over the next decade? Thank you.

@formthirteen, LSEG in my opinion, has horrible management and the deal for Refinitiv was idiotic, again, my opinion.

So it is complicated. We did see deflation in the late 19th century, hence William Jennings Bryant famous speech - you shall not crucify mankind on a cross of gold. However, it is possible to have massive inflation on a gold standard. Two famous examples are post Black Death in Europe and post Spain's conquest of the Americas.

I have owned Tel-Aviv stock exchange (TASE IT) for six years.

@UK, my only point originally was that while Fairfax's management was excellent, it was far from the best on the insurance side as Chubb's underwriting results have been much better. To be fair, Chubb's results on the investment side have been lousy. Also, when Viking stated that Fairfax returned 19% per annum for 40 years, I checked on Bloomberg and could not get close. It is about 15.3% in USD from 05/01/1987, Bloomberg would not give me a 40 year calculation.

You don't need to lower the bar. What you need is more medical schools, the number of doctors who graduate from US medical schools has not changed in 80 years while the population has tripled and aged.

Viking, I was again only referring to the insurance business, not the combination of insurance and investing. Also, I may be wrong, but the annualized return from 05/01/1987 (Bloomberg could not run from 12/16/1985) till 12/16/2025 was 15.327% in USD, which is actually below BRK/A at 15.6765%. How do you get 19% annualized over 40 years? Thank you.