Marco Van Basten
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Everything posted by Marco Van Basten
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I think there are three lessons that we should all take away and impart to our kids and for some grandkids: Don't go to protests. If you do, don't confront the police. If you do go to a protest, don't bring weapons.
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Well, many of them, like Bank of America or Citi were, if I am not mistaken. They were allowed to earn their way out of it.
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With all due respect, I disagree. First of all, compliance and legal/regulatory costs have gone up quite a bit, particularly since asset limits have not been adjusted for inflation in thirty or forty years. Second of all, people die, get divorced, lose their jobs or if you do really well and go from 10% of someone's assets to 50%, they cut you to 20-25%.
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I don't have an opinion on some of the names on the list, but I would stay away from STZ - no growth, and FND has very high short interest - generally a bearish indicator.
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Aena is probably the best airport owner out there, however the Spanish government despite owning 50% i think screwed shareholders during Covid (abrogating minimum guarantees.) ADP has a 70 year concession for the Paris airport. Keep in mind, a lot of airports like ASUR and other Mexican ones are concessions.
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Is Europe becoming uninvestable?
Marco Van Basten replied to lnofeisone's topic in General Discussion
I would add social cohesion - which means no immigration from places with diametrically opposed values to traditional European values, drastic cuts in the social net, and drastic cuts to the regulatory burden. -
What's your favorite REIT, RE, hard asset company for 2026?
Marco Van Basten replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
What in your opinion is in the interest of the CEO of Veris and why? Thank you. -
If you understood history, rather than regurgitate what you read in Pravda on the Hudson (NYT), you'd know that fascism starts with curbs on freedom of speech. Something that Biden and Co, as well as Fauci and Co were busy doing. I don't recall you complaining about that five or six years ago. Something that they are busy doing in Europe - where the former Finnish Interior minister has been on trial for objecting to her church celebrating homosexuality. Try to post something in UK against immigration, particularly from Muslim countries and see what the government will do... You do not seem to object to that either.
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You do realize that that's the rule in France and other European countries? While I disagree with Noem, I think that you are being absurd by casting everyone you disagree with as a fascist. You do not even know what that means. In a fascist country you'd be in a concentration camp or hanging from a lampost for your opinions. Learn some history, comrade! Regards, Dr Faustus.
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I think a number of names in the space got hit - Heidelberg Materials, Buzzi, CRH, MLM. European names I think got earnings estimates reductions due to currency.
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I don't know what Mr Horn is thinking. He seems to assign zero value to managerial skill. I assign incredible value to Mr Watsa and his team, this is why I bought the stock a year ago at half of today's price and continue to own it.
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Yes, I agree with you that Airbus has a decent moat. I am assuming that over the next 40-50 years, the number of miles flown will grow by 3-4% per annum, Airbus and Boeing will largely maintain their duopoly, neither Embraer nor Comac will become material threats, and operating margins (EBIT) will reach 20%.
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I disagree that Airbus is expensive. I happen to own it and GE & Safran, and I would buy both with a clean sheet.
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I do not think that this is good thing. My point, perhaps badly stated, is that something that will negatively impact 70% of the country (in their view, not in mine neither a borrower nor a lender be) is unlikely to be enacted into law, and if it does get enacted, will most likely get reversed.
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Why do you think that a 10% cap on credit card interest is a great idea? My guess is that it will lead to credit cards being available to only blue chip customers, so probably 70% of the country won't have them.
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You are right. To me, an exceptional business is one that earns superior economic returns and ideally can grow with attractive returns on capital without relying on exceptional management team. An idiot can run Vulcan materials, and have run it in the past, and the returns have been incredible, similarly with MO. You get an idiot to run an insurance company, it goes bankrupt, you get an okay management team, and you get mediocre returns.
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We will have to agree to disagree. In my opinion, it is not the business that is exceptional, Mr Watsa and his team are exceptional and they make an average or commodity business generate a superb return.
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Why do you think so? Thank you.
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I am not sure that I agree with you. There is no doubt in my mind that Mr Watsa and the team that he has assembled are exceptional. In my opinion, Fairfax is a decent business run by an exceptional team, why do you think that the business is exceptional? Ferrari is an exceptional business, so is Moody's, but insurance is ultimately a commodity, no? Unless you have an all star team which is what Fairfax seems to have.
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By the way, from the evolutionary point of view, it is probably best to have children with someone of a different race, since the likelihood of genetic disorders is reduced. Now there could be cultural problems to deal with, however in my experience, Soviet immigrants in specialized science schools had a lot more in common with immigrants from Asia than Americans, despite being white. Similarly in college, I mostly hung out with Soviet, Latino and Bangladeshi/Indian first generation immigrants. Perhaps playing ping pong, squash, and pool after dinner had something to do with this...
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I cannot speak for South America, but a lot of Eastern European women are very highly educated and want careers, however they are often willing to combine having a career and having a normal/traditional family with historical family roles. In the States, a lot of girls in top universities are from upper middle class families and are spoiled, they are not used to housework and they are not oriented to very lucrative careers either, and that's a bad combination. It has been such a fight to make my three kids do housework (my wife and I think that our boys and our daughter should all know how to cook, clean, and ideally know how to use hammer and other tools and we make them do regular chores every day.) The refrain has been but none of our friends have to do it. Also, I went to high school with a lot of brilliant Asian girls and for many of them, domestic skills were non-existent, the flip side of that however was that they were very smart, very hard working, and very much oriented toward lucrative careers. Great career in a lucrative field and no domestic inclination/skills works, great career in non-lucrative field and no domestic skills is a potential problem.
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I agree that nobody can predict the future, however we seem to try to do it daily on this site by being active rather than index investors. For most investors in the US, capital gains tax is around 33-35%, 23.8% federal + state&local, which in NJ = 10.75%, in NYC reaches 17%, 12% in Hawaii, 9% in MA, 7% in CT, 13.3% in CA. So selling an investment bought at 100 for 200, you are left with 165, and then if new investment outperforms by 3% per annum, break-even is after 7-8 years. I have a stock that I bought at $3, it is now $36, so in that case, the break-even time frame, assuming 3% annual outperformance is around 15 years. We are all active investors here, so sure if I own a stock that I think can compound at 9% per annum, and I can reinvest into something that can compound at 15% per annum for twenty years, then I will switch, however if I own something with a cost basis of $3 that sells at $36 and can compound at 9% per annum and I have the option of switching to Diageo that I think can compound at 10% per annum (7% free cash flow yield + 3% inflation), then I would be a fool to switch
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Really? Every doctor I know in NYC gets offers to go to the South or rural areas - Maine for double the pay... But yes, NYC is an absurdly expensive place...
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Plenty of doctors with own practice may several million dollars a year in NYC. Fertility doctors in NYC made $6-10MM a decade ago, now much more I presume.
