Marco Van Basten
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Everything posted by Marco Van Basten
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What people forget is that quietly, US budget deficit is declining, and falling sharply as a % of GDP. In Fiscal 2024, ended 09/30/2024, budget deficit = $1.84 trillion or 6.4% of GDP, in fiscal 2025, $1.8 trillion or 5.9% of GDP, calendar 2025 saw $1.7 trillion budget deficit down from $2.0 trillion in calendar 2024. Calendar 2025 budget deficit = 5.5% of GDP. So if you get 4% real and 7% nominal GDP growth, you could see budget deficit falling to $1-1.2 trillion. Still unacceptably high, but between 3-4% of GDP down from 6.4% and may be that is being reflected in the market.
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The problem for big Pharma is that the US subsidizes the cost of medicines for the rest of the world, we pay several times more for the same thing. If Trump had brains, he'd mandate that the price of any medication cannot exceed twice what the average of France/Germany/UK/Switzerland/India/Africa pay for it. I think this kind of law should happen, and most likely will happen, and that will justly devastate the profits of big pharma.
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Why have you been expecting MSFT to go to $397? Thank you.
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Moody's - MCO
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Is Europe becoming uninvestable?
Marco Van Basten replied to lnofeisone's topic in General Discussion
I don't know if that is a big problem. I have read that German porno films are a big hit in Russia, so spend the money to produce the porn and then sell it elsewhere! -
You are right but you are assuming human beings are 100% rational. I have not yet met one who is always 100% rational. I fight my anchoring bias regularly, but it is hard for me to pay $5 for something that I paid $3 previously, although logically I agree with you, and as I said, I have done it twice.
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I have done it a couple of times, it is very hard to do psychologically.
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AGT Food and Ingredients files preliminary prospectus for IPO
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You are absolutely right about surgery or say sending a rocket to the Moon, although group think tends to be very dominant. However when it comes to governing society or making decisions for society, I would rather have a group of plumbers with sixth grade education than a bunch of academics at Yale.
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You have forgotten one other thing, most highly educated people have zero common sense. As a matter of fact, there seems to be an inverse correlation between IQ and common sense or book learning and common sense.
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With all due respect Parsad, you don't know what you are talking about. I used to interview kids for Yale, and I saw that they tended to accept activists for causes popular among the very left, even if these activists had no idea about the cause and did not research it. People accepted were also disproportionately homosexuals, or people interested in studying women's gender and sexuality, etc.. However, thanks for the insult! That would normally change most people's minds, but since I not only have a BA from Yale but a PhD from another university, I look down with great condescension on those who don't have PhDs, and hence will ignore your opinions on this and all other matters!
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So I went to Yale. It pains me that schools like Harvard and Yale have been destroying themselves by recruiting activists rather than scholars. I used to do alumni interviews for Yale and then stopped, because i realized that they were looking for activists who fit a certain pattern. I would like Yale and Harvard and Princeton, and other schools to focus on learning rather than social change. Also, learning in something normal - physics, biology, math, Chinese/Indian/European civilizations, rather than gender studies and women sexuality.
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Just don't forget to say that you feel like a woman in a man's body...
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I agree with all of your points. However, that's not how human beings operate. If the policemen recognized him and thus knew his propensity for violence, once they heard that he had a gun, the logical conclusion was that he would likely use it and hence shot first. As a matter of fact, his gun discharged, albeit not by him, and afterwards cops opened fire. Again, very tragic situation but very, very predictable outcome.
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https://nypost.com/2026/01/28/us-news/alex-pretti-appears-to-spit-at-ice-kick-out-tail-light-in-previous-minneapolis-confrontation-before-he-was-shot-by-border-patrol/
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Usually the bank that issued the ADRs.
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Mauboussin on Strategy: The Coffee Can Approach
Marco Van Basten replied to dcollon's topic in General Discussion
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_whoisontheotherside.pdf?1769008178555=&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Interesting new paper from Michael Mauboussin -
When did I say that it was his fault? I said that what he did was an incredibly stupid thing to do. I have a first amendment right to walk through a black neighborhood with a very high crime rate with a large placard saying that blacks are disproportionately on welfare, medicaid and commit a disproportionate number of crimes. What do you think will happen to me? The right to do something does not mean that is it a smart thing to do. My goal is to learn from other people's mistakes, your goal sees to be to argue. Good luck to you.
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Again, I am not saying that he deserved to be shot. My point is that in life, your goal should be to minimize stupid mistakes. Bringing a gun to an anti-police protest is profoundly stupid, and no good can possibly come out of it. And we should learn from this unfortunate situation.
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Actually, it has always been the advice to anyone: don't argue with police and don't fight police, and obey their instructions. At least that's why I remember ACLU telling anyone who'd listen thirty years ago.
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You keep missing my point. I am not arguing whether he deserved to be shot or not. (From my limited knowledge, he clearly did not.) My point is what you can do to minimize harm to oneself. Don't bring a gun to a protest, no good will come out of it. The goal in life is to learn from other people's mistakes so you don't repeat them. If I had a gun permit, I would not go to a presidential rally with it, that's just common sense.
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No, I am not. What I am saying is that just as you don't cross the street on a red light, you should follow common sense. Getting into a fight with police is never a good idea. Bringing a gun to a protest is never a good idea. Getting into a fight with police when armed is on par with crossing the highway across eight lanes of traffic.
