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Marco Van Basten

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Everything posted by Marco Van Basten

  1. Does anyone know of a good way or a good fund manager that invests in Uzbekistan? Any advice or firms someone would recommend and why? Thank you.
  2. 15% on reported book value or real/adjusted/marked to market book value? Thank you.
  3. Imports were $3.36 trillion in 2024. Even if we assume a 20% tariff across the board, which is not going to happen given the exceptions, et cetera, that's a $672bn increase in costs. Let's assume that the entire burden is passed on to US consumers, which is highly unlikely. Then, given given USD 30 trillion in GDP, it is a 2.6% one-time increase in costs. In reality, given the exceptions, and given the some companies stated that they would eat tariffs, you could have a 1.0% one-time increase in costs.
  4. I agree and disagree. In general I agree, but I am reminded of the tobacco sector - when the sector flipped from volume growth to volume decline, it clearly deteriorated, in addition when the tobacco litigation kicked up in gear in the 1990s/2000s, again the industry deteriorated. Yet the returns to investors continued to be superb for decades.
  5. No, Vaca Muerte was known for a long time. It's just Argentina was untouchable for many, many years. This is not a new deposit.
  6. Earnings estimates were cut for WRB at Truist and that supposedly weighed on the insurance sector
  7. Why can't you just accept the fact that some people would like the US to be a country of laws? You call everyone you disagree with a heartless racist. Some of us are just tired of socialism, irresponsibility and government incompetence and corruption. If you gave a damn about the poor and the working classes, you would actually cheer deportation of illegals and end to immigration. Immigration lowers wages and increases housing costs, hurting the working poor.
  8. In general, I find talking to taxi drivers more illuminating than talking to university professors and very highly paid professionals. While I can learn about new books, interesting ideas, etc... from the latter, they live in a bubble and generally have zero common sense. Cab drivers tend to have it in spades even though they have nothing intelligent to say about Plato or Mozart.
  9. The one advantage of NYC that I never used was the ease of getting and keeping a mistress. Much harder to do in the suburbs.
  10. I am an optimist who was born in the USSR! I am not a misanthrope, but unfortunately I don't have martial art skills.
  11. Ha, if I knew what would go up tomorrow, I'd be a billionaire. For the long run, I'd buy Amrize here, Arcosa, CRH, CP, Airbus, NEN (that will work over say a decade or two), JOE, BLDR, MCO (I own all of these.) I also own Safran, GE, TDG, URI, Visa, Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, Progressive, MCEM, Dior, Casey's, Heidelberg Materials, Fairfax, but I'd be hesitant to recommend these ones since I think they are cheap, but not that cheap having had big runs.
  12. I sent you a message. I bought already.
  13. Oh, I agree that prices are 30-50% higher than 5 years ago. Where in CT did you sell your house? My friend just sold his house in Rye and it went within a week with a dozen bids. Same thing in Bergen county. Have you looked at Darien CT or are you just looking in Riverside? Have you considered Westport?
  14. Really? Would you mind providing the source? I have not noticed it. Thank you.
  15. If you live in NYC, buying a house in a nice suburb right now is very cheap insurance. If Mr Mamdani gets elected and implements even 5% of his agenda (opening prisons, abolishing police, et all), tens of thousands of households will flee NYC. Some will go elsewhere, but a vast majority will have to stay in commuting suburbs. So call it 25,000 families. However, inventory in the state of NJ, CT, Long Island and Westchester is: 37,520 units, and that includes towns that are not desirable, and towns that are 2 hours away commute one way, so not really practicable. My guess is that housing prices in the commuting suburbs of NYC will scream higher.
  16. I prefer SUI. ELS is too happy to issue equity here.
  17. I would be really careful with this one, short interest = 17% of s/o. Do you know what the short thesis is? Historically highly shorted shares do poorly.
  18. John, for the benefit of idiots among us, can you dumb it down?
  19. May be she should have focused on raising a child that knew history and had common sense. Then he would not advocate for abolishing police and prisons (the program of Democratic Socialists.)
  20. Why are you surprised? A lot of these film actors/directors are very left wing. They don't realize that while they would still do the same thing if their tax rate went from 40% to 80%, most people are not paid what they are paid and work for the money. You reduce or eliminate incentive to work, and most people stop working. Same thing with university professors - they pursue their hobbies and get paid to do so, and they will do so whether the tax rate is 20% or 80%. Meanwhile, garbage collectors, toilet cleaners, grocery store clerks, plumbers, etc.. will not work if you eliminate incentive to work by either providing generous welfare or by drastically increasing taxes.
  21. @Xerxes, thank you, I will take a look.
  22. Nobody in their right mind would say that what a 5 year old goes through in Gaza is deserved. However what is happening is a consequence of what the child's parents/uncles/grandparents/neighbors chose. The same way that I would feel sorry for a kid that is killed in a car accident because his father was driving drunk, is the same way I feel sorry for the child in Gaza. The problem is in neither case do I know how to solve the problem, and I have never heard anyone propose a solution that would work. If you know a solution, please feel free to post it. As a historical aside, as horrible as events are in Gaza now, they are not outrageous by historical norms. Most if not all of wars in the past featured atrocities that were much worse than what is happening right now.
  23. Just put coc on ignore, that's what I did. He contributes nothing to the investment ideas, and instead just insults people.
  24. If you have not read it, I would suggest Common Stocks and Uncommon profits by Phil Fisher, and then a few books on accounting fraud - Thorton o'glove is one author, Abe Briloff is another (more debits than credits, etc,,). Also, read Nick Sleep's letters.
  25. No, it does not, it has a number of brackets. Corporate I believe is 28%. Keep in mind that there are no local/state income taxes in Israel, as opposed to US. I am not an expert on Israel's taxation, let alone personal income tax, however: a) interest on certain bonds I believe is not taxed; b) capital gains taxation is quite complicated, but certainly way below 50% c) 50% tax rate does kick in at around USD 200K, however there are numerous loopholes. For instance, a company provided car is not taxed, etc... In addition, I was told that if someone moves to Israel, then their foreign income is not taxed for a decade. Again however, I know very little about Israel's tax policies, let alone personal taxation.
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