thepupil

I can't tell you. my default would be to assume the data is correct. I can give you one example. My sister in law is on medicaid and SSI and by design has no assets (it's important to have <$3000 to maintain eligibility for various things). She's about 40 years old and lives with her mom. she is technically an independent adult (she does not have a guardian). She is severely mentally disabled and dependent on the care of her mom. she has a part time job cleaning at a cafeteria arranged via a program that helps special needs people get jobs to make them feel fulfilled but in no circumstances could she work a full time job. I would be surprised if she makes more than $5K / year. She is also a student in that she takes a community college course. but that's of course just an anecdote. any one of us can have a different anecdote. she's the only person i know who's on medicaid for sure, but it's not a topic in which i'm an expert. but I don't have reason to believe the data is wrong.

https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/understanding-the-intersection-of-medicaid-work-a-look-at-what-the-data-say/#:~:text=Most Medicaid adults who work,) (Appendix Table 2).

i do travel ~3-4 weeks/year in total and do have to work more occasionally. I hold 7-8AM, 5-8PM as sacred for my young kid. If I need to get more done, I wake up at 4:30 or get it done at night in lieu of the reading. also have calls late at night but generally able to schedule b/w 8-10PM. but yea, I'm lucky. many have to travel more / work more hours. also helpful, I've optimized for a short commute and work home 1-2 days/wk.

something like this probably should work out more....

sorry if I'm not following; on which region/s of florida do you have a positive/negative view?

my family all lives inf south Florida, know lots of realtors / homeowners etc. I've not heard a peep about decreasing demand. some other family on west coast got hit pretty hard by irma, including one in property management / RE who had to repair a bunch of stuff across 50+ properties. rebuilt and back to record rental rates/values. interesting disconnect between your anecdata and mine. the data is quite clear regarding net migration of people and even more clear regarding migration of income / assets. are you saying you expect this to reverse based on what people in your circle are saying? what is clear is that old condo's are facing huge assessments / pockets of distress because they're old and need a lot of capital investment, but not clear to me how that clouds/changes the overall story.

I bought some $95 $IYR puts expiring in January 2025. I expect to lose 100% on these and will use the tax loss in '24 or '25 depending on how things are in December. It hedges some of my REIT exposure after a nice run. I don't think these puts are particularly cheap or anything like that...

yea I'm in the "what exactly does this mean" phase.

sniffing around this lately, gone nowhere for 5 years. big de-rating on EV/EBITDA basis, less so on P/E basis. just bumping.

I don't know man, picking a stock that has a) made a satisfactory absolute return b) beaten its sector c) beaten the market d) done so without any tax friction e) done so with arguably low risk seems to me like exactly what a professional manager should be doing. Bloomstran may be charging too much or may not be picking enough great stocks, but I don't think berkshire ownership should be disallowed. it's done great on almost any time horizon. 30 yr : 12.8%/yr vs 10.7% SPX....8.8%/yr for financials 25 yr: 10.4%/yr vs 8% SPX 20 yr: 11.1%/yr vs 10.6% SPX 10 yr: 13.3%/yr vs 13.2% SPX....11.4%/yr for financials 5 yr: 18.5%/yr vs 15.9% SPX 3 yr: 18.5%/yr vs 9.4% SPX......8%/yr for financials 1 yr: 32.1% vs 27% SPX

fair point, think my grandpa's round the clock care was maybe something like $300K for last two years of his life.

the difference in cost of living for young-ish people living in urban areas, particularly dual income households paying for childcare/education, versus older people elsewhere (assuming they don't have other familial funding obligations) is....massive. relatedly.... https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/29/400000-a-year-rich-feeling-poor/

this is logical, but if one values relationships / ties to area where that isn’t the case then you gotta pay up / save more. i actually don’t really know many boomers who actually move to a cheaper area where they have no ties. Most want to move to either be wherever grandkids are or (more likely) stay in same house/neighborhood where they built their lives. Plenty of empty nesters out there in 3K, 4K, 6K sf houses. an alien looking down would conclude insanity but I understand the emotion behind it.

perhaps to rephrase, I think I could do a lot of things but none that pay me nearly as well per unit of effort than the current niche. on the actual topic, I think about this a LOT. The answer is "I don't know". there are situations where I know that I would take more risk and bigger positions IF I had more time to answer various questions or do more work. To do the on the ground diligence that some people do here, or pore over years of filings and just generally be more comprehensive about diligence AND turning over rocks; I think the biggest difference if doing this full time is I'd try to expand the sandbox more and look at a wider variety of companies to always keep the portfolio fresh. maybe I wouldn't hold JBGS for 4 years or TFG for 11 and let those suck wind...maybe. But not doing this full time keeps me humble regarding my level of knowledge versus others, which I think may actually be a decent way to avoid impairing capital.

I'm 98% certain I'll oversave and also inherit a fair bit (hopefully in like 30 years at which point I won't need any of it), but...if I run out of money because I retired 5 years earlier than I should have, then I let down 2 generations before me who set me up well and the next generation down for whom i become a burden. people live a long time now... I don't really see how I'd be employable after leaving the workforce. I have no real skills (beyond my niche). lacking money you're subject to the government; public healthcare, public education, public senior living facility. you become a ward of the state and subject to whatever the state offers you which I think you have to think is only declining with time. retiring w/some other low number is a bet on the benevolence and efficacy of the government whereas a bigger nut offers some escape hatches / alternative options to dying a state run facility. rightly or wrongly, people (including me), probably overweight the downside risks of running out of dough, but it is quite difficult to contemplate not having dough...I'm trying to balance the here and now a bit with the tomorrowmight spend about 2%-3% of muh net worth on a boat for next season....yea that's a market top