thepupil

Good stuff! Thanks. Seems fairly consistent with the even higher level reported accounting of the segment. so given what you’ve done above and that we know the following As of 9/30 1) there’s $150mm of resi RE inventory 2) there’s 1300 or so homesites under contract for expected revenue of $122mm ($94k/lot) 3)there’s 2400 platted lots, 1300 ex LWMS, 4K engineered, and the rest for 22k total how does this roll up into your valuation if JOE? Does the exercise make you more bullish or bearish of JOE at current prices?

the majority of weddings I’ve been to, including mine, were no kids allowed, I think we had 175 people, invited 250, kids would have added maybe like 50 and it’s a giant party that goes late into night so not exactly a kids thing. People get childcare and have an awesome time

agree completely. we were but a few days from significant stress in funding markets and further margin calls/deleveragings etc. my fam owns 7 figs of Berkshire. I didn't want or think an insurer should be aggressive at ALL in 2020. there was tons of uncertainty on potential losses as I recall. I certainly didn't have clarity on that. we had no idea how quickly vaccines would be approved, how long it'd take for society to "re-open". honestly, if he was super aggressive, I'd have probably sold the stock. berkshire isn't meant to make one rich. it's meant to keep one rich. the communication on this has been pretty clear for a long time IMO. Lots of people w/ huge concentrations in the stock. it's not some run of the mill company that people have 5% of their net worth in. I bought PSH who was getting aggressively long in restaurants and hotels and was levered and at a big discount. I understood ackman's aggression and wanted some of that (at a certain size). I did NOT want Berkshire doing that. and as it turns out they had plenty of firepower in the form of their huge AAPL position which made a shit ton and they've monetized/derisked that substantially. Berkshire has slightly beat SPX over the last 5 years and within a hair over last 10 and slighlty above in last 20 and generated a good absolute return over all time horizons. not really sure there's anything to complain about that.

TIPS are indeed subject to whatever the government says inflation is. No asset is perfect or without risk.

89.95, should have just said 90, sorry, it is a 2.62% real yield, which is the highest since '08

in my parents IRA / bond allocation, today I bought the most recently issued 30 yr TIP maturing in February 2054 for $89 / 2.62% real. The tip will pay a 2.125% coupon on a principal which grows by inflation. this is the highest real yield offered by long term TIPs since 2008. Should real yields continue to go up, I will sell more intermediate nominals (bond index) and go ham on long term tips.

he's sold at least 2/3 of his peak shares. wouldn't be surprised if he's sold more come 13-F day. I think the AAPL position was 1/3 of equity at one point and is now like 7% (not including its associated DTL so it's actually a little smaller).

also consider splurging on a night nurse the first 2-3 weeks. Even every other night for 1-2 weeks is a huge blessing, particularly if the pregnancy was hard on the mom from a physical standpoint, though it is expensive. maybe less important though if you're not working. I took my leave later and was working a few days after born so having night nurse for a little was hugely helpful in letting me get a full night's sleep every other day.

if you have a ton of money and don't care about your career progression, i think you should take 15 months of paid leave regardless. that is an insane benefit. babies are a ton of work the first few months but one or both of you will eventually have a fair bit of free time with both of you at home, they sleep a lot. I took 3 weeks and my wife took 12 weeks (unpaid). I assume you're not in the U.S? I know plenty of dads who took none. two jobs offering 12-15 months of paid leave is wild!

this is also that if your bros friends are in peak wedding season they may have 5-6 or more weddings a year 2-3 bachelor parties and it becomes incredibly expensive so it may be they can’t get off work, it “can’t get off work” is also “I can afford to go to 2 weddings and 1 bachelor party this year” or “I technically could take off but it’ll put me behind and stress me out” i think one year we spent like $15k going to other people’s weddings. I spent $2-3k on a friends bachelor party (someone for whom money is not an object plans the events, sends bill to everyone at end). Through genetic lottery and high earnings was able to do that stuff, but it consumes a ton of money and time. Happy to be done with that now that all but a few stragglers are married. I don’t see how “normal” people afford the wedding and bachelor parties tha tha e become standard these days. Part of our wondrous societal excess.

so when you do this by community, what the most valuable community and what's it worth in your view to sh today?

okay so for Camp Creek, you are doing 57 * ($1 million? $1.3 million?) and saying camp creek is worth 57*1.3*0.75 = $55 million to shareholders? I'm using lot sales in last 6 months on zillow and the pricing sheet here https://www.joe.com/community/watersound-camp-creek/available-homesites and for number I'm using the 57 in the table in most recent 10Q and same website says 200/263 already done which foots w/ the table in the Q The Watersound Camp Creek community will be home to 263 lots at full buildout. More than half of the community is sold out with 200 lots sold to date.

maybe to try to tackle this another way, when you value an individual community, as you have, what is the value of that community relative to the total sellout of that community?

I mean 2021 saw revenue double from 2020 which was almost double that of 2019 on increasing margin / price per lot etc. if that's not an awesome environment, I'm not sure what is. 2021 was objectively a smoking resi market everywhere. not sure how that's controversial. if the margins are reflected in later years and 2021 wasn't truly an awesome market...then whered they get pushed to? 2022? (which was lower) 2023 (lower), 2024 (same as 2022/3). 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average Resi GM 48.6% 67.2% 42.1% 50.3% 51.3% 59.9% 60.7% 52.5% 50.0% 53.6% I have made no forecast. I don't think saying resi RE dev margins will probably be b/w 40-70% is even a forecast. it's too wide to be meaningful. like saying the stock market will return b/ -40% to +40. probably true, but doesn't really tell you anything. I'm simply pushing back on what i regard to be an outlandish statement "that you can get the value of the company in a few years pipeline" or whatever. that just seems wrong and out of line with any kind of reality and does not acknowledge costs, taxes, and time. i agree that valuing multiple decades of land sales is indeed too hard for someone of my analytical capabilities and free time. I think i could study JOE full time and not come up with an accurate measure of IV. i think it's unpredictable but positively skewed at this price. but we'll have to put it to rest as this is well beyond the point of productivity.

oh that table. that's what I used to calculate how many of camp creek lots they sold (using the changes from year end to 9/30). i don't really follow what @Gregmalis saying regarding those columns if that's what he's referring to. to me that stuff is all of incredibly varying duration, value, time to monetize, etc.