thepupil

https://www.bankofutica.com/about/tv-commercials/ethnic-restaurants.php 13%-er at average of $440 (started at $372 ended at $500+) yea, I'm a crazy person

1) it’s a PFIC. 2) thesis is that it’s largest asset (equitix) is rumored to be for sale at a significant premium to NAV; if rumor and price prove true, will generate about 100% of market cap in cash and NAV will increase and be significantly de-risked. Has traded up from 28% ish of NAV to 40% of NAV. I significantly increased my long held position. The company confirmed they are exploring alternatives for the Equitix and also changed their methodology of how they value it.

unless one's thesis was hinged upon the CEO (which technically this wasn't the CEO of the whole group), I would regard this as immaterial to the earnings power of the company / a non-event from a stock perspective. if a CEO/CFO killed himself, I'd be more concerned about fraud, but murder wouldn't concern me as a shareholder.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz this inspired me to look at my portfolio / update my spreadsheet....I kind of hate it at the moment. bunch of stale things and mediocre ideas at immaterial sizing. been buying a fair bit of #1 and #4, but 4's pretty illiquid / don't want to pump it given I've already moved price up a fair bit.

I can't tell you. my default would be to assume the data is correct. I can give you one example. My sister in law is on medicaid and SSI and by design has no assets (it's important to have <$3000 to maintain eligibility for various things). She's about 40 years old and lives with her mom. she is technically an independent adult (she does not have a guardian). She is severely mentally disabled and dependent on the care of her mom. she has a part time job cleaning at a cafeteria arranged via a program that helps special needs people get jobs to make them feel fulfilled but in no circumstances could she work a full time job. I would be surprised if she makes more than $5K / year. She is also a student in that she takes a community college course. but that's of course just an anecdote. any one of us can have a different anecdote. she's the only person i know who's on medicaid for sure, but it's not a topic in which i'm an expert. but I don't have reason to believe the data is wrong.

https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/understanding-the-intersection-of-medicaid-work-a-look-at-what-the-data-say/#:~:text=Most Medicaid adults who work,) (Appendix Table 2).

i do travel ~3-4 weeks/year in total and do have to work more occasionally. I hold 7-8AM, 5-8PM as sacred for my young kid. If I need to get more done, I wake up at 4:30 or get it done at night in lieu of the reading. also have calls late at night but generally able to schedule b/w 8-10PM. but yea, I'm lucky. many have to travel more / work more hours. also helpful, I've optimized for a short commute and work home 1-2 days/wk.

something like this probably should work out more....

sorry if I'm not following; on which region/s of florida do you have a positive/negative view?

my family all lives inf south Florida, know lots of realtors / homeowners etc. I've not heard a peep about decreasing demand. some other family on west coast got hit pretty hard by irma, including one in property management / RE who had to repair a bunch of stuff across 50+ properties. rebuilt and back to record rental rates/values. interesting disconnect between your anecdata and mine. the data is quite clear regarding net migration of people and even more clear regarding migration of income / assets. are you saying you expect this to reverse based on what people in your circle are saying? what is clear is that old condo's are facing huge assessments / pockets of distress because they're old and need a lot of capital investment, but not clear to me how that clouds/changes the overall story.

I bought some $95 $IYR puts expiring in January 2025. I expect to lose 100% on these and will use the tax loss in '24 or '25 depending on how things are in December. It hedges some of my REIT exposure after a nice run. I don't think these puts are particularly cheap or anything like that...

yea I'm in the "what exactly does this mean" phase.

sniffing around this lately, gone nowhere for 5 years. big de-rating on EV/EBITDA basis, less so on P/E basis. just bumping.

I don't know man, picking a stock that has a) made a satisfactory absolute return b) beaten its sector c) beaten the market d) done so without any tax friction e) done so with arguably low risk seems to me like exactly what a professional manager should be doing. Bloomstran may be charging too much or may not be picking enough great stocks, but I don't think berkshire ownership should be disallowed. it's done great on almost any time horizon. 30 yr : 12.8%/yr vs 10.7% SPX....8.8%/yr for financials 25 yr: 10.4%/yr vs 8% SPX 20 yr: 11.1%/yr vs 10.6% SPX 10 yr: 13.3%/yr vs 13.2% SPX....11.4%/yr for financials 5 yr: 18.5%/yr vs 15.9% SPX 3 yr: 18.5%/yr vs 9.4% SPX......8%/yr for financials 1 yr: 32.1% vs 27% SPX

fair point, think my grandpa's round the clock care was maybe something like $300K for last two years of his life.