mananainvesting

I used Chatgpt and Notebooklm to generate these. I haven't double checked the numbers. FYI. Clearly from below, Fairfax has always had higher float to equity compared to Berkshire.

Duration is just 2.2 Years! Love it!

Has the volatility in $FFH.To/$FRFHF increased post add to TSX60? Thoughts?

Added to $FRFHF

Below is the Q1 Estimates I see on Tikr. Not sure where Seeking alpha is pulling the info (Above Post)

Tomorrow might be a buying opportunity! (Not advice)

I asked ChatGPT to map book value per share of both MKL and FFH.TO against insurance cycles over the years, and this is what it got back with. I haven't double checked the numbers, but looking at this I am getting more comfortable that both $MKL and $FFH.TO should be able to grow book value ~10% even during soft cycles. Likely even higher for $FFH.TO. Anyone knows if the hard and soft insurance cycle timeline is accurate?

I think you are mistaking Fairfax India with Fairfax Financial. $FFH.TO is an active insurance company, so fails the PFIC test (that is my understanding). Not financial advice.

Why only in a tax-free account? No withholding tax on capital gains and the dividend is minute (so not much hit, and one still gets only 15% withholding due to treaty)

Bluspring: This demerged from Quess in 2025, Fairfax owns ~35% ownership in Bluspring. Link: https://www.vccircle.com/fairfaxbacked-bluspring-to-buy-german-energy-firm-s-india-unit

Damm, I did not know this!! Question: Fairfax has been buying shares via NCIB over the years at increasing prices, how is that possible? (unable to get a clear answer from Chatgpt)

haha!! True! Well there is the bull case for Adobe and other SAAS companies, Can't win with AI sometimes!

I realized just now that the previous chart I posted was a chart kill! The Y axis and the data don't match. I asked Notebooklm to redo it.

Added to $FRFHF

I asked ChatGPT to do a deep research. I uploaded Annual Reports(2022 to 2024)/10-K/Latest earnings release of $MKL and $FFH. Asked it to compute the intrinsic value per share of Markel and Fairfax using the same methodology that Markel uses (Orange + Blue earnings). I haven't double checked the data but the intrinsic value of Fairfax came really close to where I have it. I have attached the Pdf incase anyone is interested. Intrinsic Value Per Share for Markel and Fairfax Using Markel’s Orange and Blue Framework 2022–2025.pdf

don't you think a premium to NAV is warranted for the culture of the company (which protects the terminal value) and the network effect accumulated over multi-decades (OMERS, Lloyds, India, Greece,Sri Lanka...) that will help compound returns well into the future?

We usually talk about liquidation value (Book value) / earnings power value. I wonder what would be the Asset reproduction value of $FFH.TO? Very very likely nowhere near where the current Mcap/EV is. One can't build a culture and network that Fairfax has even in a few years, likely takes decades, what's the PV of that?!! ----- random thought!

I think we tend to forget the snowball effect. All the capital the company has earned over the last 5 years, is also going to compound. Even if we may not earn the same amount of IRR over the next 5 years as the last, I think there is a higher probability of hitting >15% ROE than under. I really like how @SafetyinNumbers talks about the leverage available to us shareholders (3:1), which is why I think they are very likely to hit >15% ROE over the next 5 years.

No splits, been asked many times in Annual Meetings.

What's the quick elevator pitch on Exor? Thanks

I really want them to reinvest capital where they find the highest return!

Good question, I didn't even notice that!! (Crazy me). Does anyone know, why such a huge difference??

Crazy!!! 2.5% nuts!!!