Milu

Would this not be a good list of criteria for an investment regardless of stagflation or any other environment?

For ambitious well-read investors who have consumed everything on Buffett I think the idea we can predict and take advantage of macro is a phase we all go through. For most of my 20’s I was more cautious, held excessive amounts of cash waiting for drawdowns, had a fool proof strategy based on shiller PE, Buffett indicator (market cap to gdp), hussman funds various historical valuation metrics. It’s seems logical smart and prudent. It also gave me a sense of satisfaction holding my nice cash stores (earning about 0%), and looking down with pity at the lemmings buying the dip while I was waiting until this period of exuberance ran its course. Then as you start to hit your 30s you start to questions things, the stocks I held keep charging forward, any downturns are mostly short lived, and you start to see that even when bad things happen they can impact the market in many unpredictable ways. As you hit mid thirties you mostly come to the conclusion that being influenced or investing based on macro is mostly pointless and best strategy it to ignore it and just buy things you believe are fairly priced regardless of where we are in a cycle or what crazy things (wars, inflation, interest rates) are going on in the world. Save the brain power for researching the investments rather than worrying about macro. While I still hold some cash (maybe 10% or so) investing for me became a lot more straightforward and successful when I paid less attention to shiller PE (couldn’t even tell you where it’s at), hussman, Tobin’s Q ratio etc.

Ya I might buy a little this week, and buy more should price continue to drop.

Interesting, I’ve my eye on Hermes but still need it to come down a bit further before I can take the plunge.

Been adding to Dominos and Ferrari lately.

I like palmer a lot. Very smart guy and would be good horse to back if anduril goes public. Although I’d say there will be a lot of demand so would unfortunately require a willingness to pay a high premium that I might not be able to justify.

Thanks, always enjoy reading his letters. A simple no nonsense investor who has done well over multiple decades.

The bitcoin community really don't do themselves many favours a lot of the time

Hmm that’s a bit too conservative for our liking, needs to be bright orange with a license plate saying ‘HODL’. Not sure you are going to cut it unfortunately.

Welcome to the club. You now need to brush up on your lingo. Please ensure the pepper any future conversations in this thread (or others) with the old reliables "Fix the money, fix the world" "Bitcoin is signal, everything else is noise" "Few understand" "Not your keys, not your coin" And I assume you have already picked out what colour Lambo you are going to buy when this thing takes off?

I wonder how much of this is just a bit of steam coming out of a market that was going vertical for last year or so vs any genuine war fears.

Some interesting recent strength in Bitcoin the past few days as this Iran crisis puts the fear in the market. Perhaps the current winter is ending?

Interesting https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fc6aa4bd-b43c-3bb0-89c4-1ba0768c473b/jack-dorsey’s-block-to-lay.html I was wondering why Salesforce started to fall big in the after hours. Block ( formerly square) are laying off 40% of workforce, claim new intelligence and ai tools have changed things as to how to run businesses, and that most companies will end up with similar conclusion over time.

Ya I'm not too sure what to think either. I'm currently in a mostly wait and see approach. There is a lot of seemingly good value out there at the moment in SAAS stocks but I think the future is just too unpredictable for me to take much action. I know this is always the case and I'm usually quite decisive in large stock drawdowns like we see in certain enterprise software names. This time feels different, famous last words! I was mostly in the camp of AI is going to change everything, this had me feeling that all tech firms (outside of the hyperscalers) are doomed. I've now dialled that back a little bit but my current investing framework is in a somewhat barbell manner of just owning the hyperscalers on one end as I think they will benefit massively from an AGI world, and at the other end owing companies like Dominos, Chipotle, Ferrari who should be impacted less. It's the mid level tech companies that I feel could struggle. I use claude a lot each day for my job and it really has at least doubled both the speed and quality of my work, so I can see the hype is real. Even if things were frozen today the current LLM's are transformational for some jobs (coders, consultants). So it's harder for me to see it as misplaced hype when my own two eyes confirm things each day. How this applies to the wider world of other industries, who knows.

Didn’t think too much of it other than a great work of fiction. That said I think there are massive unpredictable changes coming in next 5-10 years. Makes it very challenging to know where to put your money.

Wow the bloodbath keeps going in SAAS stocks. They really are being seen as roadkill these days. Salesforce, Workday, Service Now, Hubspot, Atlassian, Adobe, Factset, Intuit. I'm almost tempted to just close my eyes and buy a basket of them, but probably just going to watch the fun from the sidelines.

Sure, can never rule anything out. I’m firmly in the digital gold camp of bitcoin folk, so I wouldn’t be intending to use bitcoin for currency style transactions. Stablecoins are much better suited for that.

Depends on your time horizon I suppose. I already hold a decent amount bought in 2020, so my cost basis is around 8,000 a bitcoin. I’m not trading the asset so it’s just a long term hold for me. If it gets to 500k plus over the next decade then it doesn’t matter too much to me if I got some at 70k or wait a bit and get some at below 60k. Obviously if trading it over the short term then waiting for more defined entry and exit points might make sense but that’s not what I’m doing or would have any skill at.

Wouldn’t this make it a somewhat opportune time to buy then if one believes in the long term viability of the technology. When the market psychology shifts and everybody sees lots of reasons to buy a lot of the growth will have already occurred. For example many people see loads of reasons to buy gold now that it’s at 5k, but saw little reason a few years back when it was sub 2000.

Cryptocurrency is mostly seen as a normal thing by the younger generation. One of the big bull cases is that over time as wealth gets inherited by the younger generation they won’t have the same concerns/fears as the older generations on allocating a reasonable percentage of wealth to bitcoin or ethereum.

I see them as two different things. Stablecoin is a digital version of the dollar or euro. As it is pegged to a fiat currency it will be steadily debased in the same manner. Bitcoin serves the purpose of maintaining/growing wealth over long term, stablecoin maintains wealth over short term but guaranteed to lose value long term due to debasement.

I’ve watched some of his stuff lately. I have similar views to him in many ways but he does seem a bit too confident in his predictions. Not sure what kind of investing track record he has or whether he is just some intelligent sounding talking head. Don’t know much about his background.

I think a lot of the recent drawdown in bitcoin has been connected to the recent drawdown in high growth SAAS stocks. I expect this type of correlation to decline over time but still seems like bitcoin behaves in this manner.

Enjoyable interview with CZ.

I only heard of this guy a couple of weeks ago but starting to like him as he seems to have a very similar viewpoint on bitcoin and SAAS as I do.