Eldad

Or find very small monopolies that no one really knows about and are not consumer facing. V/MA and Railroads are very much on everyone’s radar.

And yet I would bet money that WB will publicly endorse Gavin N if they replace Biden with him. What exactly his he getting for his allegiance to the kleptocracy?

It’s time. He didn’t get an elephant or significantly deploy capital in 2020. He probably will not get a better opportunity. He has now shifted from we can narrowly beat the S&P to we can beat the average S&P company. Obviously 20% plus of the S&P is making 20+ ROIC annually and growing revenue at an amazing clip. So that kind of feels like the white flag. There is still a place for the super safe 8-10% annual gainer but I think they need to pay a dividend.

This one made me roll my eyes a little. It is a pretty common talent and that’s the problem.

Hahaha that was so weird. 1 a day but at least not as bad as Europe. I thought he sounded a little depressed/nihilistic too. All varnished with the usual charm. BRK basically a super safe 8%er. I not sure he is just being humble old WB. I think he might be saying get out if you want to get rich like Bertie (or marry one of her pretty daughters). I mean if BHE isn’t there to suck up capital and you have Greg instead of WB and Charlie, I’m not sure I don’t take his advice at some point.

Does that not lead you to believe it is either very massive or else low volume? PYPL is roughly the size of OXY with double the daily volume. 5% would only be 3 Billion.

Looking forward to waking up and reading about BRK and drinking coffee Saturday AM.

Very good info on union tank car. Not to make it a Terravest thread but I was also thinking about that the other day and was thinking about underground gas station tanks and grain dryers.

Yes agricultural, loans, very favorable tax code, etc.

Average in Indiana is 8k so that’s probably right. It is kind of like sports franchises, it will never makes sense from a yield perspective, but it continues to outperform for other reasons. I don’t like that it is so heavily subsidized by the US government. When our country finally has to pay the piper financially, that could all go away. I think super long-term Canadian land has upside. Longer days, global warming, growing population, etc. My family does timberland in the US South and if bought right can be had for $1000-1200 or so cut over. Not a world beater investment but has recreational uses and other strange upsides you would never predict when buying. We have been approached for solar, oil/gas, lithium, RE development, etc. through the years.

Thanks

What % would be a full position for you on this one?

That looks to be correct. So call it 48% of the business is melting on a volume basis while still providing higher profits annually. 52% is growing in volume and profit. Non-combustible reaching profitability this year and growing quickly. 6x earnings still seems more than priced in.

US Combustible is what 30% of sales? I would think that is more than priced in at this price.

I had to get a little at $218

Good call Spek. Down 15% today. Digging in.

Buy the monopolies during bear markets MCO, SPGI, V, MA, MSFT etc. and hold forever. Buy what Mark Leonard calls the High Performance Conglomerate type stock at opportune times (CSU and spin-offs, TDG, ROP, BRK, etc.) and hold forever. Spend most of my time when it is not a bear market looking for the next High Performance Conglomerate that is still a small or micro cap Terravest, CSWI, etc. I guess like Charlie says do this to keep me out of bars. Hopefully as I get older and richer I will be more like Charlie and just play golf and fish and not even look at markets until bear market time. But sadly I am an addict.

I don’t do that anymore either, it’s bad luck. People won’t buy the weird little stocks that usually do great, but they will buy the beaten down large caps you recommend that usually take more patience than they have.

Point taken. I have a lot to learn admittedly.

Thank you dealraker. J Oliver is a biased individual. If he is covering a topic like PSR, I already know what he is going to say is all I meant. Your article is from the prospective of the railroad client. They are free to use trucks or barges. As a shareholder of BNSF, UNP, and CP I am not so worried about their PSR concerns. If my companies have an advantage I would like them to exploit it to the extent the law and public good faith will allow.

Let me guess, greedy corporate fat cats are evil and their seeking of more efficient ways of doing things is actually deadly and evil and going to kill us. See Ohio crash. I’ll skip.

Is it a PSR vs nonPSR situation? Did UNP want to lose it? Can anyone remind me of Buffett’s argument against PSR? Is he against it or just wants to be hands off and let BNSF do their thing? With a duopoly in the Western US, and a limited capacity to add more volume to your lines without PSR, why would you focus on taking market share?

All time high baby!

Or a 30% decline. I kinda switch to cigar butt mode when it’s really bad out there.

Abel and Jain have kinda been duds in the personality space (nervous maybe, not their place to joke maybe?). I think remember Todd being kind of a robot too. Let’s try Ted and maybe on of the sub CEOs? Can’t let it turn into just another meeting after WB.