Hektor

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-26/modi-s-india-state-owned-companies-are-outperforming-private-firms India’s State Sector Is Thriving. That’s a Problem The fact that government-owned companies are outperforming private firms is nothing to celebrate.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/world/asia/china-surveillance-xi.html Xi Jinping’s Recipe for Total Control: An Army of Eyes and Ears Reviving a Mao-era surveillance campaign, the authorities are tracking residents, schoolchildren and businesses to forestall any potential unrest. The Chinese Communist Party has long wielded perhaps the world’s most sweeping surveillance apparatus against activists and others who might possibly voice discontent. Then, during the coronavirus pandemic, the surveillance reached an unprecedented scale, tracking virtually every urban resident in the name of preventing infections. Now, it is clear that Mr. Xi wants to make that expanded control permanent, and to push it even further. The goal is no longer just to address specific threats, such as the virus or dissidents. It is to embed the party so deeply in daily life that no trouble, no matter how seemingly minor or apolitical, can even arise. Mr. Xi has branded this effort the “Fengqiao experience for a new era.” The Beijing suburb in the propaganda video, Zhangjiawan, was recently recognized in state media as a national exemplar of the approach. “Fengqiao” refers to a town where, during the Mao era, the party encouraged residents to “re-educate” purported political enemies, through so-called struggle sessions where people were publicly insulted and humiliated until they admitted crimes such as writing anti-communist poetry. Mr. Xi, who invokes Fengqiao regularly in major speeches, has not called for a revival of struggle sessions, in which supposed offenders were sometimes beaten or tortured. But the idea is the same: harnessing ordinary people alongside the police to suppress any challenges to the party and uphold the party’s legitimacy.

RIP

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/05/17/chinas-real-estate-workers-90-pay-cuts-skipping-social-events-survive-property-slump/ The slump has tossed some 500,000 people out of the property sector in the three years through 2023, according to Ke Yan Zhi Ku, a real estate research group. That’s not counting workers in related industries such as construction and marketing. They’re all facing setbacks in the middle of their careers, forced to make skill adjustments “on an epic scale,” says Alex Capri, senior fellow at the National University of Singapore. “The property meltdown is feeding a wider sense of somber reflection.” The days when some real estate companies doled out Mercedes-Benzes as yearend bonuses are a distant memory, but many analysts say this isn’t rock bottom yet. The housing sector’s economic heft may shrink to about 16% of China’s GDP by 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics. That possibility threatens to put about 5 million people—equal to the population of Ireland—at risk of unemployment or reduced incomes, the analysts wrote. Even young workers in their prime are struggling to find jobs, with the youth unemployment rate reaching 15.3% after China revised its data methodology.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-chinas-retirement-crisis-is-contributing-to-weak-consumption-811dc64a How China’s Retirement Crisis Is Contributing to Weak Consumption Demographics and a feeble economy are straining both China’s pension system and the family tradition of children caring for aging parents.

I feel one of the reasons for WEB not talking about them anymore may be to tamp down the demand that T&T are made available to field investor questions.

I intend to mean nothing. I came across the NYT article, thought that painted another side of recent India, and felt others might be interested in reading it.

Why paycheck to paycheck may be expected to continue? https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/money-discipline-downsides-delayed-gratification-5770e346 The Downside of Delayed Gratification We’re all told that it pays to be disciplined in our spending and consumption. But the advice can backfire.

Also this. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/18/world/asia/muslims-india.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/business/china-property-mortgages.html China Says It Will Start Buying Apartments as Housing Slump Worsens Signaling growing alarm, policymakers ramped up efforts to stem a continued decline in real estate values. Chinese officials on Friday took their boldest step yet, unveiling a nationwide plan to buy up some of the vast housing stock languishing on the market. They also loosened rules for mortgages. The flurry of activity came just hours after new economic data revealed a hard truth: No one wants to buy houses right now.

How like is such a situation, where CR goes up and a %5 debt opportunity exists?

Agree. However, what would be the likely duration of this situation? It could be a long time if there is a once in a 50 or a 100 year event, I would think. I guess FFH is better organized now than in the past to at least tide over such a period, if not take advantage of it (I don't know how, though )

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/is-roaring-kitty-the-internets-warren-buffett-b31d63bc Is Roaring Kitty the Internet’s Warren Buffett? "Perhaps Roaring Kitty is now part of a select cadre of elite active investors so highly regarded that whatever targets they choose tend to trade at higher valuations. This is sometimes known as the “Einhorn effect”: Whenever Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn bet for or against a stock, his views had a persistent impact on its price. The legendary Warren Buffett appears to have a similar influence. " "Roaring Kitty has been posting a barrage of memes and clips from movies, including one featuring Marvel supervillain Thanos. With the amateur trading subculture as strong as ever, these cryptic messages may well play the role of the letters that Buffett sends annually to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, which are analyzed and parsed for every bit of investment wisdom. "

I guess when it turns, people will continue to buy sporting goods, get married, eat at restaurants, fly in/out of airport, travel/vacation, bank, lease ships to ship goods, insure etc., and Prem (and his team) will do what they have done all along, and then insurance will turn again. Do you agree?

Thanks @ander

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/business/china-bullet-trains-ticket-prices.html China Is Raising Bullet Train Fares as Debts and Costs Balloon China is taking the rare step of sharply increasing fares for riders on four major bullet train lines, in its broadest move to address rising costs and heavy debts since construction of the system began nearly two decades ago. The higher prices for train tickets are part of a push to raise prices for public services. Earlier this year, water and natural gas bills started going up in some cities. Increasing prices can stem losses at some giant state-owned enterprises that provide these services. And making consumers pay more helps offset the falling prices that are widespread in China’s economy as growth slows.

RIP Jim Simons. The Man Who Solved the Market has some interesting read on how Jim Simons did it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6f63c4a9-f79e-398b-abbd-30450d38d1df/this-day-in-markets-history-.html This Day in Markets History: Warren Buffett Takes Control of Berkshire Hathaway On May 10, 1965, In a boardroom on Cove St. in New Bedford, Mass., a young, crew-cut Warren Buffett took control of a decrepit textile maker. Stock in Berkshire Hathaway closed that day at $18 a share. Nowadays, the company's class A stock trades above $600,000 a share.

https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-paramount-billion-dollar-loss-2024-5 Why Warren Buffett's Paramount bet may have cost him $1.5 billion Famed investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway placed a $2.7 billion bet on Paramount in 2022. It hasn't worked, at all — Buffett just said he has sold all his stock and lost "quite a bit of money." it looks like Berkshire sold its Paramount stake for $1.2 billion after paying $2.7 billion for it — a $1.5 billion loss. Which does indeed seem like "quite a bit of money."

The phone rang for WEB and CTM, but will it ring for the new guy(s)? I doubt it rang for BRK. He probably is saying that the new guy(s) must go hunting than await a elephant or a horse or a sheep. Also, they might have to work at cultivating the relationships so that the phone rings for them too. Some speculation.

This could be a risk, post WEB.

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-the-passing-of-eric-salsberg-2024-05-06/?utm_source=press-release&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Mon+May+06+2024&utm_campaign=Fairfax+Announces+the+Passing+of+Eric+Salsberg Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announces with great sadness the passing of Eric P. Salsberg, who joined Fairfax in 1988 after acting as counsel to Fairfax on every major transaction it undertook since its founding in 1985. Rick served as Vice President – Corporate Affairs and Corporate Secretary for Fairfax, and provided strategic advice and guidance on countless transactions undertaken by the company over the years. “For all of Fairfax’s history, Ricky has acted as our consigliere and has always represented the true heart and soul of the company. He loved Fairfax and we would not have achieved the success we have without him. Ricky was our partner, trusted friend, and indispensable advisor for 38 years, and all of us here at Fairfax loved him, as did his family, friends, neighbours, and business colleagues,” said Prem Watsa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Fairfax. “On behalf of the entire Fairfax family, we want to share our most sincere condolences with the Salsberg family on the loss of this truly special person.” Fairfax is a holding company which, through its subsidiaries, is primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and the associated investment management.