giulio

Evo, psh, bat

Couldn't agree more! @LC at YE 23, my estimates of look-through earnings were around 135USD per share. This excludes investments gains (both derivates and sales). LOts of moving parts of course, especially this year. I think 10x is too low but I am comfortable using 13x given their Indian exposure, fixed income allocation, growing income from consolidated subs and associates, the possibility of repurchasing minorities stakes and ongoing buybacks. This is why I think it is still cheap. At USD1800 maybe I'll need to do more work Best, G

Is this adjusted for their NON mark to market investments? What about earnings multiple? I still think it's cheap, I have been adding recently. G

It looks to me as people are assuming that ffh could drop 50%+ in one single session. What could trigger such event? Fraud accusations? Insufficient/overstated reserves? What's the probability of that happening? Why would a thoughtful, concentrated investor, having followed the company for many years, not being able to exit at a smaller loss? Btw, Thank you @SafetyinNumbers and @Parsad for sharing your thoughts. And congratulations on the terrific results!! G

I can't quote a source but if iirc markel and fairfax had some kind of cross shareholding. A member of the markel family sat on fairfax board and vice-versa. At some point due to regulation/competition they decided to sell down their stakes and leave their board seats. Maybe @Parsad has a better recollection of events.

UMG, EVO, PSH

https://www.ft.com/content/398fde10-6e63-4b01-b834-1897d6265dcd?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content Interesting article, it gives some context on FIH decision to sell their NSE stake. Prem mentioned the spike in options trading at the agm. I still wish they kept it though, same thesis as their IIFL companies' one but a better industry... G

Quick answer is = a lot. The multiple you pay goes down quickly even with small pricing/volume increments, potentially cutting the entry multiple in half over 4 years (just done a quick calculation on excel so I might be wrong). As a reference point TransDigm routinely pays about 15x EBITDA for acquisitions. The real question is if this pricing power is real. Is there any evidence of this company consistently raising prices without losing volumes/customers? Why can they do it? Why have they not done it so far? Can they defend their position? A high ROCE is a good starting point for quality. What's the reinvestment opportunity? I would thoroughly examine these questions first. If you are satisfied with the answers you can pay a very high multiple and still do very well. being value focused I would capped it at 20x. But it really depends on the opportunity. G

USD670 million pre-tax excluding shares consideration. 2.4x the carrying value at march 31st. $18 per share pre-tax "emerging" value...don't tell muddy!

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/home-insurance-premiums-surge-states-approve-8656877d?mod=itp_wsj,djemITP_h It is not just storms and hurricanes, don't forget wildfires! So far it has been a busy season and it could get worse in the coming months. G

for those looking for more info on executives/directors comp, you should search the attached file in sedar+. the one I have is from last year, there should be an updated version. IIRC executives have a low salary, max ~1M, and they receive a 100-200% bonus part cash and part in options. the amount is at the discretion of the comp committee. options have a 15-year maturity and exercise price is the closing market price of shares at grant date. I might be wrong! G management_info_circular.pdf

not a great show by SEBI. Similar to when the German regulatory went against the FT instead of Wirecard.

I don't think they had much choice. They HAD to get to 40% holding within 5 years of their investment. It was disclosed in their 23AR as posted above.

from the AR23